"oil demand should peak within the current decade"
The Tipping Point In Global Oil Demand
By Salman Ghouri - Sep 04, 2023
Oil demand to slow sharply by 2028, putting peak in sight - IEA
Global oil demand is expected to slow "almost to a halt" within five years, the International Energy Agency said in a report Wednesday, as higher prices and supply concerns will likely speed up the shift to clean energy sources and electric vehicles.
Demand will rise 6% between 2022 and 2028 to reach 105.7M barrels per day on robust demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors, the IEA said in its medium-term oil market report. But annual demand growth is expected to shrink from 2.4 mb/d this year to just 0.4 mb/d in 2028.
Notably, the use of gasoline for vehicles is set to decline after 2026, given increased adoption of EVs and biofuels.
"The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
IEA expects growth in China demand, which has seen a muted recovery after lifting COVID-19 restrictions, to slow markedly starting next year.
In a separate report, IEA said global oil demand will grow by 2.4 mb/d in 2023 to 102.3 mb/d, outpacing last year's 2.3 mb/d increase. China is expected to account for 60% of the gains.
EVs Made the First Visible Dent into Gasoline Consumption
by Wolf Richter • May 11, 2023
Gasoline sales have already been stagnating for years, interrupted by big drops in demand.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Gasoline consumption in the US dipped by 0.4% in 2022, from 2021, to 369 million gallons per day, all grades of gasoline combined, below where it had been in 2002, and down by 5.7% from 2019, and by 5.9% from the peak in 2018, according to data from the Energy Department’s EIA.
And yet, in 2022 employment grew by 4.8 million. And miles driven increased by nearly 1%. It’s not that economic activity declined or that people drove less. But they bought less gasoline
Why the drop in gasoline consumption despite more miles driven?
The primary long-term structural factor at work is the rising fuel economy of the vehicles in the national fleet. This started many years ago, and it continued in 2022
Why the dip in gasoline consumption in 2022 from 2021, instead of further recovery from the 2020 lows?
Ah-ha, finally, a long-anticipated moment. The growth of EVs in the national fleet inched to the visible surface of gasoline consumption. EV sales in 2022 grew to a share of about 7% of total new vehicle sales in the US. In California, EV sales in 2022 accounted for 17% of total sales. These numbers are starting to show up at the gas station as a decline in gasoline sales.
Even though the market share of EVs in the US reached 7% in 2022, up from near 0% a decade ago, their share of the national fleet in operation is still minuscule, and for now, the impact on gasoline sales is small in the US overall. But we can finally see this first little dent.
The impact of EVs on gasoline consumption was bound to show up, and it was part of the mix in prior years, but at such low levels that it got lost in the shuffle.
Sales shift from refiners and gas stations to electric utilities.
Conversely, as gasoline consumption declined in 2022, electricity generated and sold to end-users in the US finally broke out of the 15-year stagnation and set a new record, in part because of EVs (there are also other new power-hogs, such as crypto mining, which has taken off in the US a few years ago).
Electric utilities, for years stuck in a no-growth business in many parts of the country, are licking their chops at the prospects of being able to sell more electricity
The global market for internal-combustion vehicles peaked in 2017 and is now in "structural decline," Bloomberg New Energy Finance declared in a recent report.
BNEF reported in 2021 that global internal-combustion car sales had already peaked, but didn't mark that peak with a precise year. It now also predicts that oil demand for transportation will peak in 2027,
Kathy Woods Is a waitress ,The fools that gave Elizabeth Holmes billions also like Kathy.
This is a MUST Watch as electrifying the U.S. is a pipe dream.
Ray Kowalik CEO of Burns and Mcdonnell
What is Burns and McDonnell known for?
Burns & McDonnell is among the largest Engineering/Architecture companies in the US and a prominent contributor to US market for electrical designs. It is also active in the construction of military facilities, wind and solar energy installations, aviation, health care, and is active in the oil and chemical industry. Nuclear also.
Ray says there is zero integration between any of the energy installations. Not one of the connections from all of the Different energy systems will fit any other system
and it will take $1 Trillion a year for more than 50 years to integrate.
Burns & McDonnell is a family of companies bringing together an unmatched team of 10,000 engineers, construction and craft professionals, architects, and more to design and build our critical infrastructure. With an integrated construction and design mindset, we offer full-service capabilities.Sep 29, 2022
Ray Kowalik was interviewed by RI PBS Llewellyn King
The electrification of AmericaDecember 17, 2022 by
As the White House looks at how electrification can help the nation meet its climate and equity goals, Llewellyn King and Ray Kowalik, Chairman and CEO of Burns & McDonnell, discuss the power generation future.
Look at the 5 year chart for a great laugh.
kathy woods should be playing with dolls.
What is the feed stock of our world wide society?
Houses, Commercial buildings , Transportation and durable goods?
Thank you Petroleum Industry:0)))
Oil demand could plunge by 30% over the next 5 years, Cathie Wood predicts.Jan. 19, 2023
Crude-oil prices are up thus far in 2023, but fund manager Cathie Wood sees a substantial drop in global oil uptake that could result in a powerful swing lower for the fossil fuel.
“We believe that the demand for oil,” estimated to be at about 100 million barrels a day, “is going to drop over the next five years” by 30%, Wood said on Thursday during a quarterly seminar for clients of ARK Invest’s suite of funds.
That’s “because of not only electric vehicles and the increased in electric-vehicle miles,” but also autonomous taxi services, Wood predicted, referencing her popular holding, Tesla Inc. TSLA, +11.00%.
The ARK Invest CEO made the case that crude oil CL00, -0.38% has held its value, on a relative basis, due to a number of factors, including China’s gradual reopening from its zero-COVID policies and a replenishment of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which were tapped to help mitigate the growing costs of oil last year.
“We could be talking $50 [a barrel],” Wood said.
Tiago EV starts at around $10,000 ($14,500 upgrade)
Tata Motors, one of India’s largest vehicle manufacturers, has announced a new made-in-India electric car called the Tiago EV, a 5-door hatchback based on the the company’s Ziptron electric car platform, which is optimized for driving conditions in India. The Tiago EV starts at around $10,000 with a 19.2 kWh battery and 3.2 kW charging. The company says it has a range of 250 kilometers. For around $14,500, drivers can upgrade to a 24 kWh battery version with 315 kilometers of range and a 7.2 kW charger.
Tata Tiago EV review: India's most affordable electric car
Egypt new massive gas discovery( 3.5 trillion cubic feet)
Egypt JUST ANNOUNCED It's NEW MASSIVE Gas Discovery( 3.5 trillion cubic feet)That Will Change The Entire Industry Forever
The Egyptian Oil Minister, Tarek El Molla, made a big announcement just last month. He revealed that Egypt had found a massive gas field in the northeastern Mediterranean.
According to the Middle East Economic Survey, the field possesses 3.5 trillion cubic feet of gas.
U.S. poised to become net exporter of crude oil in 2023
HOUSTON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The United States has become a global crude oil exporting power over the last few years, but exports have not exceeded its imports since World War II. That could change next year.
Sales of U.S. crude to other nations are now a record 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd), with exports of about 3 million bpd of refined products like gasoline and diesel fuel. The United States is also the leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, where growth is expected to soar in coming years.
The United States already produces more oil than any other country in the world including Saudi Arabia and Russia. U.S. shale fields are aging and production growth this year has been sluggish. Overall output should reach a record 12.34 million bpd next year - but only if prices are lucrative enough to encourage oil drillers to pump more.
Export terminal operators are rushing to boost their capacity to better service the giant tankers that can carry more than 2 million barrels of oil.
"Russia has proven to be an unreliable supplier," said Sean Strawbridge, chief executive of the largest U.S. oil export facility, Port of Corpus Christi. "That really creates a wonderful opportunity for American producers and American energy."
Corpus Christi could see a 100,000 bpd increase in exports next year, Strawbridge said, on top of the record shipments of 2.2 million bpd in October.
LNG HITS RECORD
The United States became the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas during the first half of 2022, surpassing Qatar and Australia, on the back of demand from Europe and surging prices.
LNG exports likely will continue to rise into 2023 as Europe scrambles to refill storage depleted this winter, said Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler.
Philippines potential $26.3 trillion OIL and GAS Industry
The economy is moving from a tailwind pushing it along to a headwind holding it back
Posted on December 16, 2022 by Gail Tverberg
Has gasoline demand peaked?Yes it has!
Internal combustion engines are sipping less gas as EV demand is on the rise.
Peak crude oil demand will follow peak gasoline demand this decade or next as ground transportation demand dries up. Crude oil is likely already in a bear market. Lower highs and lower lows with a test below $50 followed by a $50 -70 trading range seems probable.IMO
$100 oil may never be seen again.Price supports may be needed to provide continued investment and stable production as the EV transformation matures.
Perhaps peak food production or peak jobs caused by AI will bring the End Times but Peak Oil doesn't look like the straw that breaks the camel's back.HH
" Demand for the fuel(gasoline), which uses more than a quarter of the world’s crude, has already peaked. Part of that is about electric cars — BloombergNEF estimates that they’re already subtracting about 1.7 million daily barrels from global consumption. Still, much of it is just that plain old internal combustion engines are sipping less gas. New US cars now travel nearly twice as far per gallon as they did at the start of the Obama administration, with light trucks and SUVs increasing efficiency by a more modest 59%."
"After more than a century of almost continual growth, the world’s appetite for oil is peaking, and will soon enter terminal decline."
Analysis by David Fickling | Bloomberg
September 29, 2022
As older, less efficient cars are phased out of the fleet, the entropy of the scrapyard is reducing gasoline demand as rapidly as the innovation of the electric vehicle manufacturer. It’s no accident that major refiners such as Reliance Industries Ltd. are already looking beyond road transport, and reconfiguring their plants to produce aviation fuel and petrochemicals instead.
That’s not enough for those who paint a rosy future for oil demand to point to historic correlations with economic growth and argue that the pattern will repeat once again. Away from forecasters’ spreadsheets, OPEC spare capacity is already wafer-thin, and upstream investment is running at not much more than half its level last time crude prices were in the vicinity of $100 a barrel. The oil industry responsible for supplying additional barrels isn’t spending the money to ensure they’ll turn up — and if that doesn’t happen, consumption has no prospect of growing.
440 nuclear power reactors with 55 under construction currently
"Today there are about 440 nuclear power reactors operating in 32 countries plus Taiwan, with a combined capacity of about 390 GWe. In 2021 these provided 2653 TWh, about 10% of the world's electricity."
"Significant further capacity is being created by plant upgrading."
"About 90 power reactors with a total gross capacity of about 90,000 MWe are on order or planned, and over 300 more are proposed. Most reactors currently planned are in Asia, with fast-growing economies and rapidly-rising electricity demand.Many countries with existing nuclear power programmes either have plans to, or are building, new power reactors."
Plans For New Reactors Worldwide(Updated November 2022)
by 2030 145 million electric vehicles will be on the road
Number of electric vehicles
Between 2012 – 2021, around 17 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide (that includes all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles combined). It’s expected that 145 million electric vehicles will be on the road by 2030 (including electric cars, buses, vans, and heavy trucks).
In the past years, we have seen exponential growth in electric car sales.
Electric car sales in USA
USA electric car sales mostly benefited from the launch and first deliveries of electric pick-up trucks in 2022 (greater interest in large vehicles).
The US charging infrastructure is getting built out fast, and Tesla’s opening up the Supercharger network. Also, president Biden is a passionate supporter of the EV industry.
Electric car adoption in the US is happening at a faster pace than predicted. California has the highest EV demand in the USA with 1 million plug-in electric cars sold.
The future of electric cars and EV industry predictions show that we’ve only just started with the EV revolution.
The future of electric unit sales is expected to reach 16,206.900 cars in 2027.
2022 10.6 mil EV sales (a growth of 57 % over 2021) expected
"For the full year of 2022, we expect sales of 10,6 million EVs, a growth of 57 % over 2021, with BEVs reaching 8 million units and PHEVs 2,6 million units. By the end of 2022 we expect nearly 27 million EVs in operation, counting light vehicles, 70 % are BEVs and 30 % PHEVs. Sales of Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCEV) in the light vehicle sector have declined by -9 % so far and are below 20 000 units annually. Current sales are from 5 vehicle models and most sales are in South Korea and USA. We estimate their current population to ca 55 000 units."
"Global EV sales continue strong. A total of 4,3 million new BEVs and PHEVs were delivered during the first half of 2022, an increase of +62 % compared to 2021 H1."
Global EV Sales for 2022 H1
By Roland Irle, EV-Volumes
EV demand poised to turn crude oil demand downward this decade.
(Crude oil bear market may already be here IMO)
"Road transport represents the largest share of demand for crude oil, at 44% (Figure 5) with the pace of transport electrification the most significant factor in determining future demand for oil. Figures 6 to 9 show that the electrification trend in the transport sector is gathering pace with electric vehicle (EV) sales, deployment of charging infrastructure, and battery range (as a proxy for technological development) all showing accelerating trends. In the case of passenger cars, it is easy to envision that in the next decade there will be a sharply reduced market for internal combustion engine vehicles.
The steep rate of change is being driven by evolving government policy. Governments covering 25% of the global market have announced 100% EV sales mandates for 2035, and EV-related subsidies doubled in 2021 to nearly USD 30 billion (IEA, 2022). These kinds of policies are low-hanging policy fruit for the many governments looking for ways to address climate change. They can be combined with popular industrial subsidies aimed at fostering competitive firms in the green markets of the future and employment-creating spending on charging infrastructure.
"As a result, consumer uptake is poised to hit significant tipping points well before 2035, triggered by several factors, including the increasing affordability of electric vehicles. Under most assumptions, EVs are already cheaper on a lifetime basis or even straight off the lot if financed (Clean Energy Canada, 2022; Direct Line Group, 2020; Orvis, 2022). Upfront cost parity is expected to come in the mid-2020s (Bush, 2020). Increasing range, the availability of infrastructure, and growing consumer confidence that comes from familiarity with the technology will also drive EV uptake.
"According to Bloomberg NEF, “The market is shifting from being driven primarily by policy, to one where organic consumer demand is the most important factor. As regulatory drivers begin to play less of a role, consumer adoption dynamics—the ‘S-curve’—take over” (BloombergNEF, 2022). The S-curve describes the uptake of new technology that eventually takes off not in a linear fashion but exponentially, with sudden and overwhelming effects (Foster, 1986). There are numerous examples of such a dynamic with past technologies, including cellphones, personal computers and, ironically, internal combustion engine passenger vehicles.
Another driver of S-curve adoption rates will be the reluctance of new car buyers to purchase a conventional vehicle that they see as having low resale value—a positive feedback effect that will intensify as the market share of EVs climbs (Arib & Seba, 2017). EVs may also play an outsized role in the destruction of demand for oil well beyond their market share. Fleet owners, taxis, and ride-hailing services will be early adopters of EVs, given lifetime cost considerations, and their vehicles are driven many more kilometres than the average (Arib & Seba, 2017). Owners of multiple vehicles will likely also prefer to use the EVs over conventional vehicles if they have a choice, given the significant difference in operating costs.
"To be on track with the IEA’s Net-Zero scenario, 64% of passenger car sales and 5% of truck sales would have to be electric by 2030 (IEA, 2021). The above trends suggest that this trajectory is within range.
From the perspective of road transport—the biggest factor in oil demand—the trends are tracking toward the IEA’s Net-Zero scenario. This would mean a significant displacement of oil demand beginning before 2030 and picking up pace as the share of electric vehicles grows exponentially. Compared to the business-as-usual Stated Policies scenario, the Net-Zero Scenario implies a drop in the demand for oil needed for road transport of 18.8 mbpd by 2030 and 49.9 mbpd by 2050."
By Aaron Cosbey on September 16, 2022
Global Demand for Oil Will Be in Decline by 2030
"Comparing the IEA’s scenarios against observed trends suggests global demand for oil will peak before 2030 and thereafter decline. Similar conclusions have been drawn by other independent analysts (BP, 2022; DNV, 2021; McKinsey, 2022; Rystad Energy, 2022), and, in the same vein, the CER’s only plausible scenario shows Canadian production peaking in 2032.
"Demand reduction will be driven primarily by road transportation, which accounts for 44% of oil demand. Trends in climate policies, technological improvements, and consumer behaviour suggest demand reduction in line with the IEA’s NZE. These will begin before 2030 and will accelerate thereafter."
The East Mediterranean Is Primed For A Natural Gas Boom
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 14, 2022
The Eastern Mediterranean could become a “stable supplier of energy” to the European Union if the recent maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon spurs more investment in the region, the head of the company that launched the latest gas production project says.
“I think there is a lot more gas to be found,” Mathios Rigas, chief executive of Energean, told the Financial Times in an interview published on Monday.
Energean said at the end of October that first gas was achieved at the Karish field offshore Israel, two weeks after Israel and Lebanon reached a historic agreement to settle their long-running dispute over their maritime border.
“We have delivered a landmark project that brings competition to the Israeli gas market, enhances security of energy supply in the East Med region and brings affordable and clean energy that will displace coal-fired power generation, making a material impact to the environment,” Energean’s Rigas said last month.
The Israel-Lebanon deal could pave the way to more oil and gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean region where major gas discoveries have been made in recent years. The settling of the dispute could encourage more investment in gas supply from an area close to the EU which, in the future, could help the bloc diversify its gas supply sources as it seeks to ditch Russian gas dependence by 2027.
More exploration and investments in the Eastern Mediterranean could make the region a “stable supplier of energy” for the EU, Energean’s Rigas told FT.
Under the Israel-Lebanon agreement, the Karish oil and gas field and an area known as the Qanaa prospect are expected to be in Israeli and Lebanese waters, respectively.
A week after the border deal, Lebanon urged French supermajor TotalEnergies, which owns the contract to explore Lebanese waters, to start drilling in Block 9.