Zeev's Ideas

[Koikaze]

ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:217657, 03/14/04
Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299) (Updated 03/11 ... nice picture flg)

03/11: (216650) (*COMMENT*)

(Part 1)
Zeev, I know this may not get answerd. I faithfully try and read your posts and I am still learning Hungarian even after a year +.

I am confused about the map...

Original map calls for a low around 1913 on 3/8 and next move up to about 2007 before the final leg down. Obviously we have missed the 3/8 bottom and I believe you posted as much. Now do you think we put in the 1st bottom here about 1952 or not? If so will we only bounce to no higher than 2007 before resuming the last leg down (if we get it) into possibly 1887?

(Part 2)
Obviously, you have not been following, the low first low was supposed to be 3/8 target not determined in the main map but recently suggested at 1987, we bounced a little from there and then collapsed again to today's low, a miss. From here a minor ramp to 2007 as per a recent post yesterday, then a dump into 3/24 toward the 1887 (reread the christmas post), and only then we get the spring rally. I may have to delay the low to 4/6 or so, will determine that once I see how this ramp progresses.

(Part 3)
Zeev, I read the post about 1987 several times, the Hungarian is what threw me...<vbg>
(*END*)

And don't take these maps too religiously, they do fail quite often...for instance the daily map earlier assumed a sharper decline than we had so the steady climb into the close was still leaving us red, the early decline was at least 15 Naz points less severe than I expected, so the steady part of the map should lead us into the green (the pattern simply needed a gauge adjustment of the early swoon down...)


03/11: (216798) (*COMMENT*)
So far nice call ZEEV. I think losing 100 points on the NAZ in four trading days is more than anyone expected. Lucky for me, I've been holding limited long positions..probably just 20% of my cash. I raised my equity portfolio up to 50% today, and anticipate launching the rest next week..
(*END*)

Actually, it seems that just as the January "forecasted double top turned to be a coalescence event, the March forecasted double bottom (in both cases each exceeding the prior one) might be a coalesced one as well. If you remember the "original forecast for the January early February top was 2093 and 2163, if extreme readings do not develop, we got to 2153 (though I turned bearish at 2100, not willing to wait for the last hurrah). The forecasted bottom in March was 1842/50 as a "maginot line" not to be breeched (like the 2163 at the top) and the 1887/1913 as the possible actual bottom, well we are at 1943, and if we do get the coalescence model we are not too far. Right here, I still think that we get a double bottom structure, though, since I have no indications of an impending major bottom coming here (paucity of puts buying a real lacking element in the picture), so I must assume that a DCB from around here (coming out of three consecutive days of extremely low RSI, and three consecutive GNT's on both the Naz and the NYSE) will occur and the real slam will be after the next bounce. We'd better get above 1987 or so on that next ramp, or else, the expected bottom at 1887 may not hold.


03/14: (217605) (*COMMENT*)
Are you saying that 2043 is still the line that needs to be crossed in order for you to become bullish? I was wondering if that line was going to be lowered at all due to recent market weakness.
(*END*)

Hey, the Maginot line for going "bullish" was lowered progressively, from 2163, in January, to 2088 most of February, to 2063 early in March and to 2043 just last Friday, give it a little time to be lowered again. I'll probably done my horns long before a declining Maginot line is breached (even though for the next few days I am bullish right here, that is a tactical, not strategic position), I don't want to repeat the error I made in the mid April mid June period last year when I just turned "neutral" on such breaches rather than "gang ho bullish" (g). The market weakness is well within what was expected so far (Thursday swoon a little deeper than expected, probably due to the Spanish situation). Once we get to the 1887/1913 area in the next two weeks, I most probably am going to turn bullish, possibly a little prematurely, with then a Maginot line (to turn bearish again) if 1842 is take with gusto. Of course, a lot of things can change with the internals which will force me to change that map, but for now, everything is "according to plan".