Zeev's Ideas

[Koikaze]

ZEEV, TECHNICALS - up to ZEEV:217657, 03/14/04

03/12: (217201) (*COMMENT*)

(Part 1)
OT: Do you think that every new stock price level (new low/high) will be retested? What's your observation on that front.

(Part 2)
I don't understand the question, ...

(Part 3)
It's my experience that every new high/low gets retested. For example, if a stock sets new highs in a straight line from 20 to 30 then most likely 20 will be retested. Is that your observation too? Or is that not always the case?

Also, let's say that the stock is trading at 20.00, and opens the next day at a new high of 22, then again most likely 20 will be retested at some point.

Hope this clarifies

(Part 4)
It is not always the case, but boxes indeed are formed that way.

(Part 5)
Let's think in probabilities. What's the % you think those kind of retests will happen. From my observations, I would say an 75-80% probability. What's your take?
(*END*)

It get close, but never exactly, if you take a band from those box tops and bottoms, then 80% is a good number...


03/14: (217571) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, are we not in a similar situation with respect to new lows, as we were with respect to new highs back in March/April of 2003?

i.e. at that time we were waiting to see expansion of new highs, to indicate leadership, and a "real" bull move instead of a weak rally. However, the stocks were so far beaten down that new highs were still some time away. And by the time the new highs picked up, the move was already well under way.

Now, stocks are up in the stratosphere, wouldn't we have to go a LOT lower to see real expansion of new lows? In other words, is "new lows not expanding" giving a false sense of comfort here?
(*END*)

To get a better view you can look at the various BP's, the large SP's still very bullish, the NDX starting to "give" and the Naz still "OK". I think that by the time the end of the month comes, these will reach local extremes as measured by their respective RSI (all going back to test the lows set in March 03) and get us ready for the spring rally I expect, so , at least so far, everything is still according to the "regularly scheduled" program.


03/14: (217589) (*COMMENT*)

(Part 1)
Weekend Stock Market Analysis (3/13/04)

http://www.amateur-investors.com/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Mar_13_04.htm

(Part 2)
Bear excellent site I've been using it for over a year. What do you think of their work??

(Part 3)
Interesting work indeed, also interesting that their Naz resistance (1030/40) is pretty close to my current Maginot line at 2043 (though I doubt the ramp next week will go above 2007).

(Part 4)
Zeev quite a bit of their work followed your maggot lines so I knew they had be a great service. <g> I have tracked the cup and handle situations that they present and it is amazing how many times that technical trading situation works to perfection.

I have traded those cups a few times in the past and have done well, prior to being hooked with this board. If you don't do better with your calls I will go back to my boring cup and handles. <VBG>
(*END*)

The warning is heeded....(g). I should have added "Make my day..." So far, so good, Nikkei up 155....Futes turned green.