YM short swing now up 650 Pts x $5/contract,Analysis of recent action is as follows. This could get Very ugly however we are in a good position here.
Clarity. We can now eliminate the Bullish Triangle, as prices fell decisively below what would have been the bottom boundary. Also, Tuesday's decline gives us a downside confirmation between the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transportation averages, both closing below their November lows. We now believe there is a downside target of at least 11,500ish on the Dow Industrials. Today we have seen new closing lows for the Bear Market that started in July 2007. This is getting ugly. The VIX charts included in Tuesday's Newsletter to subscribers are in sync with this latest development, also suggesting we are going much lower during the first half of 2008. The higher ! the VIX, the more fear, which comes from declines. In the short run, there should be a bottom soon that leads to a 300 point +/- countertrend rally before another sharp decline.
This suggests we are in the midst of a stock market crash that started at 14,200 in October 2007, and is likely to continue to at least 11,500 the first half of 2008.
One of our best indicators has been the Plunge Protection Team Risk Indicator, the PPT Indicator. Whenever this reading rises above positive + 20.00, or falls to below negative -16.00, we usually see multi-week rallies. Declines can (don't have to) occur when this reading falls within the range of negative -16.00 to positive + 20.00. It was in this zone from the top back in early October until November 12th, during the recent decline. The PPT Indicator has been in the range where declines typically occur, between negative -16.00 and positive + 20.00 for most of the decline from late December, which has seen the DJIA drop over 1,100 points. Tuesday, the PPT indicator was negative -2.16.
As I stated yesterday,sold my Jan.30 TXN puts for an easy 6 bagger,still holding quite a few April 27.50 TXN puts. Going to 28 IMHO is a safe estimate. Cheers and as always Good Fortune to all.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
