Wonder my YM shorts got hit today @ 13350,VERY Pleased. TXN puts am still looking for an entry.1/2 my COH puts were hit today right after the open @ 1.50 for a very nice 50% gain. Still holding 1/2 looking to make them beg:) Your DIA puts will be a $$ maker going forward as I see another leg down for the market. I heard a radio report that cash sales are way up and credit cards sales are way down. This does not bowed well for retail and consumer spending. Housing crisis won't let middle america refinance again,pay the bills and really not increase mgt. Increase Equity gone,easy credit gone,retail in trouble. Cheers my friend,keep up the good work.
The next few days could prove to be a fascinating prognosticator for 2008. The major point gleaned from Wednesday's price action is that a large price move is coming over the next day or two. We get this information from the McClellan Oscillator, which had a very small move on Wednesday, falling 1.44 points. Small changes in the M.O. usually mean large price moves are imminent. This particular indicator does not tell us which direction the large price move will take, so we have to lean upon other indicators for clues as to direction. Friday is options expiration day, which is normally bullish. That doesn't mean we can't see a large decline Thursday, then a rebound Frida! y. The Elliott wave counts look like they are finishing small degree wave fours, which would suggest the large move will be down.
Why is this significant? Because a large move down could take prices decisively below the neckline of the small Head & Shoulders top shown at the bottom of page 13 in tonight's report to subscribers. If prices drop decisively below 13,100, to say 13,000, that would suggest a downside target of 12,500ish, below the 12,724 neckline for the larger H&S pattern shown at the top of page 13, suggesting a coming confirmation of the larger H&S top pattern, which means the probability of reaching its minimum downside target of 11,500ish becomes quite high.
So amazingly, what this says is we could get large price drop to 13,000 over the next few days, setting off a high probability chain of events that leads to a move down to 11,500ish. It is possible for H&S top patterns to fail, and even possible for confirmed tops to fail, however the odds are not good once confirmed that they will fail. Bulls better hope the large price move coming is up.
If the large move is up, it could be the middle move of an a-down, b-up, c-down for wave e down to complete the Symmetrical Triangle pattern of larger degree shown at the top of page 14. To be honest, that scenar! io looks solid, based upon the pattern, so we really are at a major crossroads as 2007 comes to a close. A decisive drop below 12,900 would eliminate the Minor degree wave 4 triangle, since that would be below the bottom boundary, and this pattern requires a breakout north, not south.
