Biotech Values

[ThomasS]

MNTA: It is abundantly clear that most do not even understand the company's technology, nor it's pipeline.
I like your analysis because it is essentially a baseline, conservative case. I do not expect b) occurring; however, this is a small issue since I expect it shall occur by mid 2009.

I do not expect case 3 & 4 valuations for the simple rationale that other pipeline programs will become more apparent by YE 2008. The generic Copaxone ANDA filing is a decent example. Item a) mitigates cases 3 & 4 for anything other than the short term, imo. I believe we are already off that $5.50 figure for the same reason (plus the obvious hope factor on M-Enox). Hence, YE 2008 PPS should be quite higher.

The Lovenox approval scenarios also depend somewhat on "when" the approvals/disapprovals occur.
We should finally have visibility on M-Enox soon enough.
(Regarding case 2 valuation: the approval will also have the immediate effect of validating MNTA's characterization platform somewhat, which is worth something. You may have already included that in your valuation.)

Thanks for the well-reasoned, refreshing opinion.
We need a RMF.