S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

[dr_praeses]

using CBOT fed funds markets, 70% of bets being placed are being made for a 25bp cut, about 30% for a 50bp, and about nil on the rest.

Options on federal funds futures can be analyzed to extract public expectations of future Fed actions. The charts below show what markets believe the most likely outcome of upcoming FOMC meetings will be. The charts are updated every business day and reflect the most recent data released by the Chicago Board of Trade. Probabilities can be estimated with various assumptions, which are described in detail here and in the readme worksheet of the downloadable Excel file. The assumptions used to construct each day's charts are indicated immediately below the pictures.

read up here: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/policy/fedfunds/Index.cfm