Thanks Lindy. I know the argument she was presenting, but I have a few issues with it. One is that it's about 7 years too old. China will very shortly no longer need 'complicated' US exports, because they already have much of that technology ...and whatever they don't have, Europe or Israel are glad to supply them with
(China has also been practicing industrial espionage on US high tech corporations for years, and has recently begun hacking into Pentagon and DoD computers)
In addition, even if Boeing continues to get orders from China in the near future, that may benefit the CEO and top directors of Boeing, but it fails to 'trickle down' to wages for workers. At best, it may benefit shareholders of Boeing stock.
The argument that americans can somehow re-tool ourselves to compete with workers making 1/6 our salary in Pakistan is one I've heard before, and find worthless. I know it's meant to make americans feel better, but it's about as valid as telling laid off Detroit workers in 1995 that all they had to do was learn computers in order to get a new higher paying job in the 'new economy'.
I seem to recall that almost as soon as those people learned programming, or how to answer tech questions over the phone, those jobs were already being outsourced to India. Fooled again.
Re your other point, I think no one addresses the question about what happens to millions of poor or undereducated americans, because there is no plan for them, unless it involves military service.
The truth remains that manufacturing is producing to over capacity around the world, and due to technologial breakthroughs, employing fewer and fewer workers. The result is that worldwide we have a glut of workers. There is no way around that. In the longer run, wages will have to fall. I wish it weren't the case, but unless there is a sharp decrease in global population, it seems inevitable.
I also strongly disagree with Meredith that the Chinese government is no longer communist. I believe they are a communist government going through a capitalist phase for reasons of their own, but one need only watch their activities vis-a-vis our military, their attitude towards internal dissenters,even the Dali Lama, to see that they have hardly embraced democracy except on the surface. If the CCP weren't dominant in China, why would they care whether our congress made a token gesture to a religious leaader? Why are they so worried about Falun Gong, or any display of religion? Are there open elections in China and a true chance of displacing the CCP as the governing body which decides Chinese national party? I don't think so...nor is it likely to develop. The myth of Chinese democracy is a lie US business likes to tell itself in order to rationalize pouring billions of dollars into establishing Chinese businesses, but I feel they are indulging in dangerous self-delusion.
The same is true in Russia where Putin is now stoking Stalinist nostalgia (which still mystifies me) and setting himself up as Czar for life. He may get it too. I never once thought that communism in Russia was dead...only sleeping. (I have always seen 'Communism' as really another word for totalitarianism one party governments and both China and Russia are still far closer to totalitarian rule than democracies, and both still view the United States as their enemy and rival.
The world is headed towards a massive military confrontation, and it isn't with terrorists armed with pipeboms. I believe it will be between the US, China and Russia, as our economies compete for the same scarce resouces.
The US is also at risk of financial instability. It is at a dangerous crossroad - losing it's economic pre-eminence, while maintaining it's vast military supremacy. What do threatened military governments do? There are many examples from history that suggest the most likely scenario.
China has ambitions to be the world's dominant power, and is sensing weakness in America's current financial plight. She has a ready ally in Russia, who is eager to regain their Soviet era power....
History suggests that these are the conditions which created the greatest risk of sudden military confrontations as nations attempt to use economic crises to realign global power dynamics.
I guess that the only upside to the scenario I sense developing, is that it would put a swift end to our 'just in time' economy which depends on cheap imports from developing countries which may or may not align with us during any serious confrontation. This might force us to re-think moving our manufacturing base overseas...
Depends on other factors, tho, and given all of the strange bedfellows which have emerged in recent years, it is hard to forecast what could happen.
But that there will be a confrontation between China and the United States within the next 5-10 years, of that I'm fairly certain...if not sooner.
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If you take anything I say as advice, you're crazier than I am.
