NFL underdogs Week 13
By RYAN STETSON - Associate Editor November 29, 2007 0 comments
Everybody’s been on a never-ending honeymoon with the AFC ever since Tom Brady pulled the tent poles from underneath Kurt Warner and the Greatest Show on Turf.
Everybody, that is, except me.
Sure the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers are terrific. They have Super Bowl rings to prove it. But where’s the love for the NFL’s “other” conference?
Nobody wants to admit the Green Bay Packers are for real this year and some still wonder whether the Dallas Cowboys can hang with the AFC’s top clubs when all the chips are down. I think they’re both contenders, considering they’ve failed to cover just four pointspreads between them so far. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is just 6-5 against the spread this season and the Steelers are good. Very good.
And if you really want to get into splitting hairs, don’t forget the AFC is definitely home to some of the worst teams in the league. Dolphins, Jets, 49ers - hang your heads in shame. If you’re looking at this from a purely pointspread perspective, the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens had to be two of the most overrated teams heading into this season.
So does it all even out? Is there a more equal playing field between the two conferences than we’ve seen over the past few years?
“Yes it is, but the AFC still has depth on the NFC,” professional handicapper Ted Sevransky told me from his home in Las Vegas. “A lot of people missed the boat on Green Bay and they’re paying for it now, but most of the NFC’s second-tier teams are flawed.
“That said, there are some really bad teams in the AFC too, so the balance of power is shifting back to the middle a bit.”
Sure, but if you check out early Super Bowl odds you’ll find the AFC is set as a huge 14-point favorite over the NFC’s representative, no thanks to the league’s neighborhood bully.
“The NFC is better, but everything is moot because of the Patriots,” veteran handicapper and card-carrying Packers booster Stephen Nover says. “There has never been a pointspread powerhouse like this. The oddsmakers have been slow to catch on, but they've caught on now.”
And I started this column really hoping to take the spotlight off the evil New England Patriots for a change. Fat chance.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis – Jaguars +7
The Jaguars have played second fiddle to Indianapolis in the AFC South for four consecutive years. This year though, they actually have a shot at the division crown.
When these two teams met back in Week 6, the Colts were coming off a bye and managed to knock Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard out of the game before things got interesting and Indy won in a walk.
This time around Garrard is back and it’s the Colts who are dealing with some significant injuries. Jacksonville can run the ball on anyone and Garrard, who still hasn’t thrown an interception this season, is really picking secondaries apart. The Jags are looking for revenge and are finally in position to knock the Colts from the top of the division. This is going to be a dirty fight. Everything goes except for hair pulling and groin shots. That’s Jacksonville’s kind of game.
Seattle at Philadelphia – Seahawks +3
Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren finally bailed on a lethargic running game a few weeks ago and told everybody that he was going back to his West Coast roots. In other words, Matt Hasselbeck throws all day long.
At the time I wondered if his tongue was buried somewhere in those big, rosy cheeks of his. But then Hasselbeck came out and chucked all night against an overmatched 49ers club. Then Hasselbeck did the same thing against the Bears and again against St. Louis. Turned me into a believer.
Seattle caught a break at its own goal line as the final seconds ticked down last week, but this is a good football team that’s only getting better.
New York Giants at Chicago – Bears +2
I just can’t figure out how ultra-control freak Tom Coughlin allows his Giants to be the least disciplined team in the league on a weekly basis. Receivers run wrong routes, linemen jump offside and coverage assignments are blown every single week. It’s corporal punishment to watch these guys.
The Bears have their own issues that include the ever-present quarterback debate and a questionable defense. But they do have home field here with a shot of the playoffs hanging by a thread. Plus they have Devin Hester.
I’ll side with Chicago’s momentum and hope for snow by game time.
Last week’s record: 1-2
Season record to date: 18-17-1
AI
