A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[ls7550]

Value Line shows 40% AP for this week.

That would, if you use it as I was thinking, mean 40% invested, 60% cash reserve. Pretty bearish, but I know of another indicator that is giving a similar signal.

If you modify the general case DY/6 7/PE measure that I mentioned a while back to DY/5 7/PE - so as to be more accomodating of the lower dividend yield US (taxation) policy, then the recent figures are DY/5 = 36.6% and 7/PE = 38.35% for a combined average of 37.5% equity exposure (62.5% cash).

With a current S&P PE of 18.25 and 3 month bonds yielding 3.29% then the Elaine Garzarelli PE+Short rate = 21.54 - within the netural zone range of 19 to 22.3

Based on Dividend Yield and PE data from

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,5,11,0,0,0,0,0.html

and short Bond rate from

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds