Biotech Values

[lumpy9200]

AMLN

Well, here is the opinion of Lehman's Jim Birchenough (courtesy of Boston Matty on IV). Note estimate of $4.5 billion in world wide sales for Exenatide LAR. This is much more compelling than the $2 billion I threw out in my previous post.


Lehman's Dr. Birchenough concedes on price

Investment Conclusion

We are increasing our price target on AMLN to $55 from $39 but maintaining our 2-Equal weight
rating ahead of upcoming phase IIb data for once weekly Exenatide LAR. While we expect LAR
superiority to Byetta BID to support eventual upside to flat Byetta trends, we believe execution
risk beyond the data, competitive visibility and unrealistic commercial expectations suggest a
brief trade rather than a sustainable investment.
Summary

AMLN will report data from its 300 patient phase IIb study of weekly Exenatide LAR vs Byetta BID
shortly in 4Q07. With prior phase IIa data suggesting HbA1c reduction of 1.7% and 8.3lb
weightloss after only 15 weeks investor focus is on AMLN ability to replicate apparent superiority to
Byetta BID and on the implications for such data.

Based on review of historical data, comments by AMLN management and recent investigator
feedback we do expect LAR superiority over Byetta BID with HbA1c results likely >1.7%.

While AMLN shares could trade up an additional 10% on positive data, we believe that commercial
expectations beyond our $4.5bln global estimate are stretched and would note FDA, manufacturing
and competitive risk as limiting sustainable upside.