AMLN
I'm curious to know people's opinion on AMLN these days. As my first biotech investment, a part of me wants to own the stock again (completely ridiculous reason, I know), and yet it seems pretty overvalued. I cannot come up with a good reason to buy at these levels. With that said, the stock has had two upgrades and an initiation at buy recently.
My thoughts on valuation: The stock curently has a $6.6 billion market cap, not including any warrants or options. Let's say Exenatide LAR is a huge blockbuster, generating $2 billion in sales. After splitting those revs with LLY, you have a company trading at 6.6 times sales (higher, actually). Factor in the possibility that Liraglutide will take sales away from LAR (I think it will because of Byettta's common side effect: nausea), and you may never have your $2 billion seller.
While the pipeline is promising, there is no guarantee that Pramlintide for obesity will either be approved or be a big seller. ARNA still is running their trial for Lorcaserin, which is an oral weight loss drug rather than Pramlintide's injection.
Any thoughts are appreciated.
Best regards,
Geoff
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
