The Black Box

[wahz]

EVERYONE: this is a really hard crossroads to guess, because we have diverged a bit too far now from what I thought would happen the last week or so, but its worked for so long that it makes some sense to let it play out. In that spirit, I now have 2 bullish and one bearish path here:

edit: 1. I now lean to us having a month long burst to 2250, which then sends us us into a correction to 1900-1950 in early June Lets call this a 45% probability

2. We bounce to 2120 or so but fail, ie the correction did indeed start when I thought, but the rally off the first low was weak...35% probability

3. The bounce is even weaker than that and we are going to the low 1900's this month, and then into the mid to upper 1800's within a few months, and blasting off from there 20%

2 and 3 just mean that I blew the peak, but 1 is new a very important divergence.