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Re: neuroinv post# 7922

Thursday, 08/02/2007 11:37:33 PM

Thursday, August 02, 2007 11:37:33 PM

Post# of 57675
Neuro, I figure the $1.66 warrant share overhang has likely magnified the drop considerably, combined with the crummy overall market. Also, most Cor diehards have already been locked and loaded for some time, and there hasn't been much happening lately to bring in new investors.

I was trying to think back if this type of drop had happened previously with the unlocking of warrants from earlier PIPEs, but then I realized that their excercise prices are way higher - $3.25 and $3.00 from PIPEs #2 and #3 respectively. There haven't been that many of those higher priced warrants excercised yet since the share price hasn't yet been high enough for any length of time. The only time would have been briefly right after the ADHD results, and then the clinical hold hit shortly thereafter, so not many were excercised. Plus at that time everyone was anticipating good DARPA results and an ADHD deal following on the heels of the great ADHD results, so few excercised in the brief window that was available in the $4s and $5s.

So this type of warrant share overhang pps effect is in some ways a phenomenon we haven't really seen previously, brought on by the unusually low $1.66 excercise price and a confluence of other events. Fortunately there were only 3.2 mil warrants at that low price, and some of the holders may want to hang with their warrants until the IND approval and BP deals to come.














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