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Alias Born 04/29/2007

Re: DewDiligence post# 4348

Thursday, 06/21/2007 3:58:33 PM

Thursday, June 21, 2007 3:58:33 PM

Post# of 12660
<<The issue I’m talking about is not cherry picking but rather attrition. The efficacy observed in phase-2 programs that end up advancing to phase-3 is biased on the high side relative to the true efficacy of the drugs in question. This bias is either underestimated or not understood by many biotech investors>>

Even with attrition, same thing. I wonder how important this bias is.
The Phase 3 trial is the `offspring' of the `successful' Phase 2
trial so I would think the the probability of success of the phase 3
should be better than the a-priori average.

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