<<The issue I’m talking about is not cherry picking but rather attrition. The efficacy observed in phase-2 programs that end up advancing to phase-3 is biased on the high side relative to the true efficacy of the drugs in question. This bias is either underestimated or not understood by many biotech investors>>
Even with attrition, same thing. I wonder how important this bias is. The Phase 3 trial is the `offspring' of the `successful' Phase 2 trial so I would think the the probability of success of the phase 3 should be better than the a-priori average.