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Re: chebese post# 4344

Thursday, 06/21/2007 3:32:47 PM

Thursday, June 21, 2007 3:32:47 PM

Post# of 12660
>If I understand what poster DewDiligence is saying, selection bias (program-survival bias) is observed because companies can cherry-pick results to present from Phase 2 trials but it cannot do the same with subsequent Phase 3 trials?<

The issue I’m talking about is not cherry picking but rather attrition. The efficacy observed in phase-2 programs that end up advancing to phase-3 is biased on the high side relative to the true efficacy of the drugs in question. This bias is either underestimated or not understood by many biotech investors. Regards, Dew

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