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DewDiligence

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DewDiligence

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Re: chebese post# 4344

Thursday, 06/21/2007 3:32:47 PM

Thursday, June 21, 2007 3:32:47 PM

Post# of 12660
>If I understand what poster DewDiligence is saying, selection bias (program-survival bias) is observed because companies can cherry-pick results to present from Phase 2 trials but it cannot do the same with subsequent Phase 3 trials?<

The issue I’m talking about is not cherry picking but rather attrition. The efficacy observed in phase-2 programs that end up advancing to phase-3 is biased on the high side relative to the true efficacy of the drugs in question. This bias is either underestimated or not understood by many biotech investors. Regards, Dew

“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”

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