Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Joe Stocks]

RE:Kurlak)10-31-2002-Daily summary by Lance Lewis.>> There wasn’t any news of consequence out overnight in tech, and there really wasn’t much going on during the day either. The semis were initially a hair weaker but caught a bid around mid-day when a bullish article by former Merrill Lynch semi analyst Tom Kurlak appeared on the Street.com, and people began passing it around. The call apparently even went out to Heehaw (that’s what I call CNBC for new readers) to try and stir up some interest too because I’m told they mentioned it too and were “oohing and ahhing” over the fact that “oh my!” Kurlak was now bullish. The article was entitled “This Longtime Bear Jumps Back Into Tech,” which seems to imply that a long-time bear on semis and technology in general has suddenly seen the long-awaited signs that a bottom is at hand.

The article began “It's not too early to get ready for the next up cycle. I'm now starting to build positions -- specifically, in semiconductor and cell-phone stocks.” He continued, “Soon, I expect we'll be hearing about better PC sales. They usually pick up at year-end, and despite weak consumer sentiment, I expect the same thing to happen this year because of the length of this slowdown and better product pricing.” He proceeded to wax on about how INTC and AMAT looked attractive and about the PC replacement cycle. Finally, he concluded with “So, after a year and a half without tech in my portfolio, I'm getting back in. I'm looking out three to five years for three to five times my money. I see this period as another one of those great opportunities that come along in the market every decade.”

Now, never mind that the PC replacement cycle has been long dead and most of the reasoning behind this bullish call sounds a lot more like “hoping” and “wishing” rather than any sort of connecting of fundamental dots, but this is basically the exact same piece he’s written before.

>>>Let’s rewind to July 23rd of 2001 to a similar article by Kurlak entitled “The Semis Have Already Bottomed.” He begins “Let's go out on a limb and make a forecast. The semiconductor recovery has already started, and by the fourth quarter, analysts will be confirming it.” He then cites a small pickup in orders and a blip in the PC market, etc and concludes with “So don't miss the next train. It's in the station, but the good seats are filling up. And remember to go first-class. That means names such as Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), Analog Devices (ADI), and Linear Technology (LLTC).”

It sure sounds to me like he was just as convinced that the bottom was at hand last year? And I thought he had been out of tech for the last “year and a half” and had been a “bear”? Why anybody would pay attention to something like this is beyond me. The fact that it created such a stir is probably indicative of the degree of “hope” that is out there among tech bulls at the moment. They want so badly to “believe” that they’ll believe anything and anyone as long as the opinion is bullish.<<<

http://lewiscapital.net/article.asp?ID=208