Calling losers is easy. Calling winners is much harder.
Personally, I find translating phase II results to phase III to be the hardest part of this hobby. I don't have a good grasp on it.
Yet.
I did look back a couple of months ago, and a few that I called right had phase II results that didn't seem any different than a couple that went contrary to my expectations. So I'm at a bit of a loss in this regard.