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pi

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pi

Re: DewDiligence post# 46756

Tuesday, 05/15/2007 5:26:24 PM

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 5:26:24 PM

Post# of 257253
POTP to Conduct Unscheduled Interim Analysis in NSCLC Trial

<<this PR has a whiff of bearishness to it>>

In a way, yes.

POTP is running out of cash so they have to open their P3 NSCLC trial to interim analysis. Only way to get funds to tide them over to H1 of 2008 with little dilution ... if the results are OK.

Best they can expect out of this is a trend towards improved PFS and overall survival in the drug arm vs placebo arm, and consequent continuation of the trial.

In any case, I expect the trial will not be closed due to futility.

Also POTP is not losing too much by way of p-value by doing this interim analysis, new 0.048 vs old 0.050. So risk appears to be minimal.

<<the market doesn’t see it that way because the shares were up 33% today>>

Agreed. The market sees this as bullish ... I expect the upwards trend in pps will continue at least for the next 2 weeks.

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