Biotech Values

[gofishmarko]

>>> docs are reluctant to experiment on their patients by abandoning their effective treatment strategies for the latest small trial that showed a benefit. <<<

I have no doubt you're correct about that , but my sense is that cancer patients might come to a different conclusion than their docs , given all the information and the opportunity to weigh in.

For example , given a choice of the following two treatments , identical in all ways except presumed treatment effect and statistical robustness supporting that effect , I'm convinced that many docs and all statisticians would choose #1 , while most patients and other sane people would choose #2 :


#1 ) 2 months of increased survival with a 99.999% probability.

#2 ) 10 months of increased survival with an 80% probablility.


Investors , while not known for their sanity , would also choose # 2 , since it represents a "probable present value" of 8 months compared to only 2 months for #1.