Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[wbmw]

Sgolds, Re: That is why I have a jaded eye towards a lot of the Intel press releases on Itanium. I learned that when a company can't show meaningful marketshare, they show lots of individual deployment wins instead. The more Intel talks about individual success stories, the more I tend to think they are losing the war.

Your one example may have personal significance, but it certainly doesn't mean that it's the case here.

Re: Intel doesn't need dozens of success stories, they need hundreds of thousands of sales, growing into the millions.

Long term, I am hopeful that Itanium will be a significant player with millions in sales volumes across various markets. That's still a long ways off. In the short term, hundreds of thousands in sales offers huge revenue opportunities at the prices Intel is getting for it.

Re: I think 2004 will be the make-or-break year for Itanium. All the pieces are now in place, both software and hardware.

What makes 2004 the "make-or-break" year? You think if sales are flat, that Intel will cancel Montecito or Tanglewood? Intel has a very strong roadmap through 2007. I should think IPF will make it at least that far, even if it stops dead in its tracks tomorrow.

I don't see that happening, however. Intel will ship more than 100k IPF processors this year, and I bet they'll more than double that next year. This is starting to take significant share from Sun and IBM, so it's no wonder you see so much FUD from McNealy, et al.

Re: While I tend to think that Itanium will be a niche processor (mainly for the HP customer base), I do not think it is impossible that it can get wider usage next year.

HP put a lot of investment in IPF, so it's no wonder that they are ahead. The HP-UX market alone is worth a lot of sales, and you'll see many more once VMS gets ported. Linux and Windows are coming along; as you point out, a lot of hardware and software is already in place. However, I think more applications over time will put more people over the fence. Dozens of companies are evaluating Itanium 2 in real mission critical situations. They are putting their faith in IPF, which opens the door to many more such sales in the future. That's how this business works. The hardest part is getting one's foot in the door, and IPF has already succeeded in that. It will only get bigger.