wbmw, how to follow Itanium momentum? -
IPF critics can't get past this closed-minded notion that Intel cannot sell more than a handful of these processors, yet the sheer mass of press releases indicate it is being deployed in dozens of different situations, from financial to telecommunications to engineering to manufacturing.
I remember working at 3Com in 1986 when they were pushing their 3+ network operation system (NOS). They issued press releases highlighting individual company adoptions of the software all the time. Internally, they gave us the impression that 3+ was winning back marketshare from Novell.
It wasn't. Netware was stomping 3+.
That is why I have a jaded eye towards a lot of the Intel press releases on Itanium. I learned that when a company can't show meaningful marketshare, they show lots of individual deployment wins instead. The more Intel talks about individual success stories, the more I tend to think they are losing the war. Intel doesn't need dozens of success stories, they need hundreds of thousands of sales, growing into the millions.
I would like to see unequivical statements showing the numbers of Itaniums sold for fair market price and independent market share data from organizations like IDC. Those are the things that would impress me.
The more strident a company talks about individual success stories against a backdrop of no market share information, the worse things look.
However, I think 2004 will be the make-or-break year for Itanium. All the pieces are now in place, both software and hardware. While I tend to think that Itanium will be a niche processor (mainly for the HP customer base), I do not think it is impossible that it can get wider usage next year.
For Itanium, 2004 will tell all.
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