Biotech Values

[palindromy]

A better way to look at estimates for SVR 24 is as follows-

Arm D - 9/17 had RVR<10 at 4 weeks - 59%
However, in the overall study 79% had RVR<10 at 4 weeks

Since this was the single most imp criteria to determine stopping of dosage at week 12, it is imp to recognize the difference here in favour of Vertex with greater study population.

Now, assuming(and I think it is a bad assumption) that 6/9 reflects true SVR20 proportion, the real SVR20 that would playout with larger study numbers could be assumed to be 0.666*0.799 = 0.532 ie 53.2%

It would not be difficult for a analyst to spin this as cutting duration of treatment by 3/4ths for more than half the patients.

In any case, I believe the real data is 3 months away. Any price action we see today until then would really be based on how Wall Street wants to take this fundamentally good story and marry it to their previous crap analysis.