ANF
Sold ANF premarket in the 78's at a small loss, it was a mistake after listening to the CC.
Things I didn't like.
1) earnings are expected to be waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay weaker than analyst estimates in q2, yet they kept there guide. So there was an original concern (why I sold) that EPS is becoming more backend loaded and concerned would they hit guidance. Having said that after the CC I feel better about them hitting the number based on thing like they front load marketing expense a bit, and tariffs have had a much larger impact in the beginning and will be much more helpful at the back 1/2 of the year for the comps. plus there will be a lower share count.
2) Cash did drop significantly in q1 from q4 levels which was something I didn't love. and was a reason I sold.
3) They kept the guidance the same but they lower the share count applied due to the buyback hence net income numbers are actually down a little bit from original guidance.
Having said that that the stock is cheap and I shouldn't of sold that soon. so it was a mistake. Having said that A 8-10X multiple is warranted given the lack of growth right now, hence I feel FV if we are being pessimistic is in the low to mid 80's and if we are being optimistic 102-105. As I said I was more concerned about guidance before the conference call, having said that guidance for next quarter is a brutal comp. Will look to buyback if it falls back to the $70 range. But if not onto the next I guess. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
AI
