A lot of handwaving here.
First, where does the $250K up front number come from? The older number I recall was closer to $55K per year adjusted for inflation. Even $55K times three years is about $165K, not $250K up front, and it still does not show that money is flowing to NWBO.
If patients were paying roughly $250K up front and there were hundreds annually, that should be very visible in NWBO’s financials. Even 100 patients would imply $25M. That kind of revenue should reduce the need for dilution.
Even if the net profit were zero, meaningful compassionate use activity should still leave some footprint: revenue, cost recovery, related expenses, revenue recognition notes, or discussion in the company’s filings.
There is also an operational issue. DCVax-L requires leukapheresis to start the process. If NWBO only recently brought the leukapheresis clinic online, that does not fit well with the idea that hundreds of compassionate use patients were already being handled annually.
So either the compassionate use numbers are not that large, the money is not flowing to NWBO, the activity is handled elsewhere, or your theory has a few holes in it.
The rest looks like wishful thinking. Pancreatic patients, broader labels, tumor agnostic approval, ASCO booth language, EDEN timing, off label use, and insurance coverage are all being stacked into one optimistic story without much to back it up.
Can you point to any PRs, 8-Ks, or filings that support this? Otherwise, all this seems very unlikely.
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