I agree that developmental biotechs often have to sell shares before revenue. That part is not really in dispute.
The problem is that Gary’s post went well beyond that. It was not just “NWBO needs cash to stay alive.” It was facility deposits, production arrangements, leukapheresis buildout, institutions wanting blocks later, future offerings at much higher prices, high single digit or low double digit share prices, and maybe a BP equity partner.
That is a lot of cheerleading layered on top of dilution.
Necessary dilution may explain how the company keeps operating, but it does not make the dilution bullish. It still reduces existing shareholders’ ownership while approval remains uncertain and there is still no commercial revenue.
And the idea that nobody could have anticipated a long MHRA review is too convenient. Many people have raised concerns for years about the trial package, endpoint history, external controls, manufacturing validation, and commercial readiness. Whether those concerns are fatal is a separate issue, but a difficult review was not unimaginable.
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