Alternative Path

[gdl]

NO OFF RAMP. What happens when Iran digs in and Trump digs in. A forever war. The OIL stoppage and embargo will go as far as the strain will allow. Two or three more months and both sides will be feeling the pain. ONLY difference is that TRUMP will LOSDE FACE if he backs away from his original demands. Either Iran caved in or we get a real war this time around. Trump will eventually have to send in the troops.

Got to love the paradox. trump bombing them to hell and then realizing the cost is too much. Bluffing his way out was never his good choice.

This as OIL retreats and Wall Street pretends all is great. We have lived in a distorted warped world for so long it now becomes normal. The rocket ship takeoff of the Market includes a fast trip straight up for the Price over Earnings. Seems for every good earning news out there the market rises well above the actual earnings picture. we are now at a 32 PE and 42 PE with Shiller ratio. I have a possible spike in OIL of 128 plus. it is now 100.

The street has abandoned their AI market analysis and now believe tariffs and OIL and spending and debt is a long-term healthy prospect. If you ever wondered how economists coined the term New Paradigm in 1929 right before the crash, we have a perfect repeat.

Not man can simulate the scenarios for the end of this conflict and how it affects the world. We wait till one side calls it quits. if no side does the world will decide for them. A market response such as a deep swoon will force TRUMP to cave in. Or the strain on major industries will do it. We know that both Iran and the world need for opening the straits should coincide in 2 months' time. The strain on both will be enormous.

Isreal has been the instigator, and all blame will fall on them. The antisemitism fever will get heated even further. Maybe Iran War is just a catalyst for the real war to start soon after. Who knows. And yet the RED STATES will stay deep red and the 3 branches of governmental power will support TRUMPs dictatorship.

November election will bring the fix out in the open. the dirty cheating both illegally and sanctioned by the Supreme Court. The outcome of the political seating will matter only in just how we break apart as a nation. A win for the GOP allows TRUMP a full steam ahead approach to destroying the world. A split house will just make TRUMP more determined and more dangerous as he ignores or breaks the law in a big way. A desperate dictator or a complacent one will end the same way but do so in different fashion. More dramatic TRUMP actions will occur against a backdrop of a split house. A confirmed house and senate will also speed up his legal destruction of this nation in a more subtle way.

One way exposes his plan and thus Wall Street will have to react sooner. A subtle plan will place blinders on Wall Street pretending it isn't happening and a slower approach to a Wall Street crash will occur. The main difference is perhaps 3 to 6 months.