Alternative Path

[gdl]

Mat Gaetz once cleared for AG will define the Trump era for the next 4 years. Since Trump himself with all his atrocities is welcome, expect a daily barrage of Putin like policies and complete control of this government. he will push the limits of his authority and exceed everyone assumptions on how far he will go. Wall Street should stay oblivious to the situation until they realize it will doom them also. I focus on the analysis to determine what/when Trump crosses Wall Street to declare surrender. Will it be controlling the FED and announcing rate cuts when inflation is rising. Will it be the combination of Tariffs and deportations. Will it be the after effect of his new alliance with despots. But that takes TIME. So, what will cause the market to collapse in 2025?

Seems the obvious conclusion by Wall Street is that this Pandemic will be handled without any consequences. We are a silly self-destructive creature hell bent on speeding up our demise. BUT as for this holiday season there is NOTHING that can go wrong.

[gdl]

Trump vetting Project 2025 architect Russ Vought for top administration post: Sources. And I thought he rejected that plan?

Project 2025 proposes that the entire federal bureaucracy, including independent agencies such as the Department of Justice, be placed under direct presidential control - a controversial idea known as "unitary executive theory".

The proposals also call for eliminating job protections for thousands of government employees, who could then be replaced by political appointees.

The document labels the FBI a "bloated, arrogant, increasingly lawless organization". It calls for drastic overhauls of the agency and several others, as well as the complete elimination of the Department of Education. It includes a proposal to "declassify government records, root out wrongdoers, and fire corrupt employees". The platform pledges to slash regulation and government spending and explicitly calls for closing the Department of Education - an idea Trump has endorsed.
withdrawing the abortion pill mifepristone from the market and using existing but little-enforced laws to stop the drug being sent through the post.

The document proposes new data collection efforts on abortion and more generally suggests that the department of Health and Human Services should "maintain a biblically based, social science-reinforced definition of marriage and family".The document proposes slashing federal money for research and investment in renewable energy, and calls for the next president to "stop the war on oil and natural gas".

Carbon-reduction goals would be replaced by efforts to increase energy production and energy security.

The paper sets out two competing visions on tariffs, and is divided on whether the next president should try to boost free trade or raise barriers to imports.

But the economic advisers suggest that a second Trump administration should slash corporate and income taxes, abolish the Federal Reserve and even consider a return to gold-backed currency. Increased funding for a wall on the US-Mexico border - one of Trump's signature proposals in 2016 - is proposed in the document.

Project 2025 also suggests dismThe document proposes slashing federal money for research and investment in renewable energy, and calls for the next president to "stop the war on oil and natural gas".

Carbon-reduction goals would be replaced by efforts to increase energy production and energy security.

The paper sets out two competing visions on tariffs, and is divided on whether the next president should try to boost free trade or raise barriers to imports.

But the economic advisers suggest that a second Trump administration should slash corporate and income taxes, abolish the Federal Reserve and even consider a return to gold-backed currency.antling the Department of Homeland Security and combining it with other immigration enforcement units in other agencies, creating a much larger and more powerful border policing operation.

Other proposals include eliminating visa categories for crime and human trafficking victims, increasing fees on immigrants and allowing fast-tracked applications for migrants who pay a premium.Under the proposals, pornography would be banned, and tech and telecoms companies that allow access to it would be shut down.

The document calls for school choice and parental control over schools, and takes aim at what it calls "woke propaganda".

It proposes to eliminate a long list of terms from all laws and federal regulations, including "sexual orientation", "gender equality", "abortion" and "reproductive rights".

Project 2025 aims to end diversity, equity and inclusion programs in schools and government departments as part of what it describes as a wider crackdown on "woke" ideology.

[gdl]

House Republican seeks bathroom ban ahead of chamber's 1st transgender member. Seems the GOP is perfectly aligned with TRUMP and anything and everything he does will be rubber stamped. The Senate has to decide and soon if they want to give up on this republic like the house has done. Seems we have a correction leading into the biggest shopping period of the year. It should be over by end of week.

The promise by TRUMP seems to be shocking some people. Military storm troopers will invade every aspect of our lives as they round up the 11 million. Cost will be astronomical and the REPUKS will demand he allow certain groups to stay as indentured servants for the profits to stay high. IF Trump agrees I suspect there is a challenge on the legality of it. But like a good neighbor the Supreme Court is there. Watch his total ban on abortion and strict laws and prosecution for doctors to perform any procedure including for the life of the mother. But wait he wants to PUNISH his political rivals and states that went against him in the election. Then we have Tariffs which is a shoe in also. Tax cut extensions, disband financial regulations, force Powell out, lower rates regardless of inflation concerns, force schools to abandon Inclusiveness in curriculum. No health department, no justice department other than as trumps personal vendetta machine. he will TRY to throw off the airwaves all network that don't follow the Trump propaganda.

the man is free to express his despot leadership and will test and succeed in all his endeavors' emboldening him to declare he is a permanent ruler for life. But that will be 3 plus years down the line. In the meantime, Wall Street will decide his policies are a net positive and rally to heights even i can't imagine. They are oblivious to trumps fascist rule as long as it maintains their PROFITS!

The Bitcoin phenomena is a direct result of Trumps endorsement. It can easily run up to 108,000 - 120,000 area before any major resistance. The WAR is now. The old white man's golden age was wanning due to demographics and white supremacy past. They will try to reverse that trend and do so from schooling thru federal rules. Will they succeed? Personally, i think it is too late to reverse the clock, but I have been wrong before.

What I do like is the fact that TRUMP will push his agenda from day one and actually get many of them done and as quickly as possible. His loyalty expectations from individuals to corporations to countries will have a reciprocal outcome for those that do play ball. We will find ourselves in conflict with our allies and will eventually side with despots. The speed at which Trump pushes these agendas will not allow a major shift in public opinion. His propaganda machine will work overtime to stall and deflect from his true agenda.

ONLY Wall Street will be the FIRST to recognize the destruction of their financial future. Not on moral or political basis but pure numbers. His policy is so inflationary that I suppose they actually think he will never pull it off. Once they realize this it probably will be too late, and the data and public shift will already be seen by then. Let's be clear. Without a Trump win we were in a huge bubble, and nothing would have reversed that. He has managed to pour gasoline on the fire. Thats what I mean by being glad. He sets the timeline in a condensed manner for the first implosive market move. There is no way we survive 2025 without a CRASH! All the variables are there. He has total control of all aspects of this nations fate. A man that refused to change for 10 straight years of banckrupcy tells me his agenda will be followed regardless of the consequences.

[gdl]

Trump eliminating Free Speech. Head of FCC will go after NBC ABC and CBS for unfair biased news. Will refuse licensing.

Either they become FOX or they fight in court. What do you think happens then. Supreme Court will either refuse to hear case or if they do side with Free Speech and against Trump he and the FCC will ignore the ruling.

Think this is far fetched. It should b hardline news by February or March.

[gdl]

Trump has sealed the fate of every person on this planet. He now has total control of the Justice Department, FBI including each States prosecutor's office. Not just talking about cases against himself but anyone he deems a loyalist. Watch the process unfold. His picks for Cabinet Positions are a slap in the face of every decent human being's sense of morality and corruption. AG Matt Gaetz accused of sex trafficking and there is PROOF of him paying 4 women for sex. He is clearly disliked by his Republican buddies in the house. The odds of him winning are 90% or greater. Thid will solidify Trump power and complete control. Energy secretary nominee a coal and mining endorser. On and on like the R. F. Kennedy with HHS, a FOX news host nominated for the secretary of defense, with multiple charges of sexual misconduct.

The list is long and predictable. Take the most corruptible immoral person with strong loyalty to Trump and ask them to destroy their department from the top. FOX NEWS is in overdrive praising his picks and the delusional Democrats with a grudge. This is an Orwellian script.

But the Street L_O_V_E_S the Trump policies. They see dollar signs and nothing else. Tariffs, corruption directed from the top of each federal and state level, hand picking the next Fed Chair, huge tax cuts for wall street, huge tax cuts for the rich, huge cuts in Social Security solvency, huge cuts in Medicare. Dropping all restrictions on Banks and lenders. Wiping out illegals thru the land with exceptions for the industries that heavily rely on them. they will get indentured status. And finally, a total dismantling of the Supreme Court power ONCE they rule against TRUMP.

The speed at which this causes an economic septic tank of greed corruption graft and collapse will ALL occur in his tenure. I NOW see the blinders get more tightly secured as January 6th policies get announced.

the stupidity of the voter unwilling or unable to see this destruction unfold will play into the hands of some savvy investor. We are assured of multiple crashes between NOW and 2028. The mindset is fused into a single idea, buy into a market correction even if it is a huge crash. no, especially if it occurs. The street is downright giddy with the single-minded assumption that we are ONLY into a Bull Market for 2 years thinking the Pandemic was a normal process to deflate the psychological euphoria and excesses. Instead, it immunized us of fear and caution. The next major debacle will be within the next 18 month GUARANTEED!
Buffett has already thrown in the towel's way before TRUMPs victory. The foolproof technical signal where the Money Supply symbiosis between M1 and M2 has LAWAYS in the past signaled major market disruption. The Debt to GDP not seen since 1942 and WW II, the P/E ratio, Dividend yield, etc.. all show we were on the path of a major market turn way before TRUMPS massive destructive actions.

I will probably jump the gun with my crash style best before I score. It does however look like Aprill of 2025 is the earlies possible crash zone.

[gdl]

Now that Trump won, is Obamacare going to be repealed?
Yep.

And Social Security will be decimated.

Taxes on corporations will go down to 15%.

Government will run out of money.

essential services will be eliminated.

Environmental regulations will be cancelled.

There will be a nationwide abortion ban.

Welcome to the Capitalist utopia right-Wing

[gdl]

The idea of a market that can't drop after a 2 year recovery from the Pandemic lows is what they latch onto. Not the economy, the valuations, the dismantling of our republic nor the dangers of switching alliances with really bad despots.

While I do believe in the theory of a grand super cycle based on Fibonacci numbers and the contraction of time between crashes, I can NOT decipher the long moves in determining the current pattern and therefore can NOT determine how close we are to the final crunch. I can ONLY assume it is getting very close to one. That means crashes will run in shorter and shorter time spans. Was the Pandemic a "planned" drop or do with discard it due to the randomness of nature.

The Fibonacci numbers as terminal points is an interesting one. The accelerated steeper angle of the market advances started March 2020 and lasted 21 months. The lows of September 2022 till now is 26 months as of 11/24. The next Fibonacci number is 34. that places the (possible) top in the month of JULY of 2025. Looking back the lows to highs of major drops seem to occur on the Fibonacci numbers..IF this continues to be true JULY is the likely end of this current wave.

Another infesting Fibonacci relationship has been the wave structure from 10/23. A 5-month pattern moving forward from there hitting a sub-wave high before dropping for 1 month and then continuing for 5 more months and a 1 month drop again. the CURRENT wave to continue the pattern would mean the 5-month move ends on 03/25.

So just based on Fibonacci wave structures we have two situations of ending patterns. One is a sub-wave 5 month pattern that end on 03/25 while the longer wave structure ends on 07/25. If they mean anything is determining the future moves, we could have a decent drop in early March of 2025 and then a churn till 07/25 before a CRASH event.

This PATTERN is just one that I can currently see. A long shot for sure but patterns seem to be displayed clearly after the fact.

[gdl]

Fed nor playing ball. This market needs rate cuts and it is more critical than most think. Trump on January 6 will make it clear he wants to fire Powell. The GOP will allow it and no court will stop it especially the Supreme Court.

Market not happy. Image me they have complained for a very long time and the profits surged. Can you imagine if the Fed gave in.

If history is a guide the fact that we absorbed rate hicks this well means greed and accelerated inflation is likely if not mandatory

[jxyzobrien]

govt spending
is a huge part of the economy
if musk destroys it the market and the economy will tank big time.
right now the hack of the election is under review
if it fails then complete control is given to trump
He is now just a puppet and will do as his masters tell him
americans deserve him

[gdl]

FED just announced no rate cuts anytime soon. In NO HURRY. Yup Wall Street needs its fix. Let's see if this shakes them up.

I suspect TRUMP will make it clear he has to lower rates and NOW. Watch him shout out his PLAN. No president has ever attempted to remove a Federal Reserve chairman from their role before, though, so the authority to do so has not been legally tested. Powell plans to stary to end of 2026. WE will find out in January.

My money is on TRUMP. he does anything he wishes from now on. I mean anything and everything. the man will give a thumbs up or down.

Strike ONE for the Wall Street cheer. Without rate cuts and a TRUMP inflation plan how will it end? My my I guess Powell doesn't want a run-a-way inflation with the free money tossed to the people in castles.

We are in holiday mode and season. the PPT would NEVER allow any deep drop going forward. Without real signs of heated inflation between now and January it is likely that the market will shrug off the despot's destruction of the Republic and concentrate on PROFITS. they will of course use the same logic they did when the Pandemic was announced. IGNORE IT till it bit them in the ass.

[gdl]

Was i wrong on the market readiness to call it quits. NOW it seems even a January 6th trump temper tantrum will find reasons to stay optimistic. Afterall he is a financial genius as he didn't pay taxes for 10 straight years. Bankruptcy was a genius solution. Trump has already threatened the school system to do away with INCLUSION and stick with the 50's style bigotry. Executive orders aplenty. he is firing all his Generals and replacing them with ones like Hitler had. AG why let us instill the man that even his republican colleges hate and the man that was under ethics violations. Yup Wall Street can see the benefit of this. Greed, graft and payoffs. What better way to make sure the winners will be the stock market. Let's further place Elon Mush in charge of government efficiency. The other genius mov is for JFK Jr. to run the HEALTH department. Ban vaccines, fire scientists and promote wild crazy cures. As for Ukraine, well that has been settled according to trump. In his first week no less. Just transfer the help from Ukraine to Putin and we will see the outcome change immediately.

I once said that "all things" in life will converge for one grand super cycle blowoff. Electing Trump as the devil himself, bankrupting our nation with debt that will never get repaid, greed off the charts and economic destruction within 4 years' time. M1 and M2 warning, SP500 P/E warning, Debt to GDP warning and the street is downright giddy for another 3 years of straight up move.

I don't understand the amnesia and short term memory we achieve given the past events. I further can't understand that with AI and other advanced mechanisms we still see clear skies when a category 5 hurricane is coming.

in conclusion we might just see a HUGE spike move before the end of this year in anticipation of the glorious genius Plans of Trump. His record has proven his worth.

[gdl]

Gaetz resigned because the house ethics was about to release a report on his sex trafficking incident. He can’t be charged now that Trump came to his rescue. I suspect he becomes AG. Can’t make this stuff up. And the public cheers and Wall Street flying high on prospects of huge gains ahead.

Yes I can state unequivocally this is the mother of all blowoffs. When? Anywhere from January to end of 2025. Bubbles upon bubbles upon bubbles. This one will be the biggest pop ever talking 30% at a minimum and in short order. Wish I knew the timing.

[gdl]

Here we go. We find out soon if the GOP is all in with the king. Mat Geatz the sex trafficking Florida republican has been nominated as Attorney General. He already resigned his house position. No one does this till after their confirmation. We find out very soon if Trump has complete control.

This as the stock market keeps breaking records.

[jxyzobrien]

the path is disaster
unless energy changes. i do not think it will. spend time with those you love and just live each day with love

[gdl]

I forgot to mention Trump will be firing all his GENERALS. Just a simple executive order. The new world order is here. He now gets to pick Generals like Hitler had.
I am sure everything this monster does is acceptable to the masses. I can see the US Military used to round up 11 million. Accept any bizarre scenario to attack our allies or even side with the enemy. And the MARKET CHEERS THIS ON. Bitcoin hitting 100K. Market should go even steeper and higher than ever imagined. the truly super cycle event is here. Watch half of this nation dance in the streets carrying and using automatic rifles on people or structures while the other half hid and hope they wake up from this nightmare.

the speed at which we will disintegrate will make even my head spin. There will not be another presidential election. There might not be a nation. We are doing this in clear wide-open space. We have embraced the devil fully. We defend the devil and praise his efforts. And Wall Street doesn't see any of it.

So now we have on January 6th the following: Firing Generals and replacing them with LOYAL ones. Deporting 11 million. tax cuts for the wealthy, tariffs, pardoning rioters, helping Putin win over Ukraine, using the military to go after his political opponents. ON DAY ONE!

Now multiply his deeds by one thousand days just like that one. I suspect wall street would be at its all time high when a mushroom cloud envelope us all. The enormous power one man with not a semblance of a conscience wields is unthinkable. It seems an impossible task that we survive his term. I saw this decades ago but hoped i was wrong. now it is extremely unlikely we can survive this going forward. The Supreme Court will think it has the power to stop him but will be put in its place soon enough. I do relish the first defiance of the Supreme Court ruling. The number of self-serving egos that couldn't see their way past their own greed will realize too late what they have created.

In my best guess this will be the last Republic we ever have. The deranged leader now has complete control, and he will complete his task of destroying everything and everyone. There will not be a restart, a new beginning. While a depression is possible so is nuclear holocaust. How likely? Not likely but rather inevitable. There is NO conceivable path that would deviate from total destruction. NONE! Prepare, don't prepare. not going to matter. just pretend I never spoke these words and go about your business as normal.

Still think I am OVER THE TOP! The funny part of all this is as i railed about the path we were heading towards I was unable to present such a total doom and gloom scenario as the one we are now in.

I can't wait for the first big stumble on Wall Street. it is likely to produce a wild surge right after the first crash. it should last between 12- and 24-month before an even bigger crash. I base this on the assumption that the grand super cycle ending will not be accepted by the masses as they have been conditioned to buy any disaster. Even another Pandemic would be met with a rally. For those that think you can survive if carrying enough hard assets, like gold, I can give you the avenue to achieve such a feat. Follow my blueprint for the macro event to follow. Unfortunately, my TIMING is not to be trusted. Understanding what will happen should allow you to cash in while others will be doing the complete opposite.

[gdl]

CPI in-line with expectations. off to the holiday races. There is a projection for one year out at 7,500 on SPX. Thats another 25% higher from here. It would make this long hyperbolic move even steeper. Trump victory is like cheering on an announced new Pandemic. The result should be obvious but then again over 50% of the voting population are cheering trump on.

In both instances what we see in front of us, what we can extrapolate easily, what we know is a certainty has been denied entirely. Imagine the glaring dangers in political front and economy. We have facts that are so damning it defies logic that not a single person of influence rings the alarm. It seems we are destined to break all records of avarice, lack of empathy, and a moral code of conduct. The Trump administration will start at a sprint. If this market ignored his announcements on January 6th, we could indeed wait till his words affect people. The massive deportation will start immediately. The pushback will be strongest in Blue States but even the Supreme Court will sit back smiling and let it happen. Like Trumps gleeful viewing of the Riot on Capitol Hill. I suspect within 3 months' time, by April, he foot soldiers will be sweeping the nation rounding up the 11 million. It will become common place. Does this remind you of another time and place where this started out the same way? Just as quickly Putin will have a major victory annexing Ukraine. ONLY a full force effort by our allies to take the reigns will Ukraine have a chance. this assumes TRUMP doesn't actually use Musk to help Putin defeat Ukraine. I suspect if the allies do come to the rescue Trump will fight against them.

this is ONLY 2 issues we face. The most immediate and obvious ones. Our self-destruction with a fevered pitch and fanatical cult like hold. Jonestown type finally perhaps?

[gdl]

This market has no fear. NONE. The test might just be the CPI report for October early tomorrow. I expect a surprise move higher since the FED wasn't exactly calling for more cuts in his last meeting. The anecdotal evidence is the consumer spending habits in NY. They are frankly INSANE! Retail and Restaurants seem like there is a fire side sale going on. No discounts or major sales in shops and Monday thru Sunday restaurants are busy, very busy. All sorts of entertainment is bustling. I am retired and go out all thru the week. I expect with October weather being great the CPI report should be high. The Bitcoin frenzy when trump was very favorable towards it created a spike move way above anything resembling "Normal". A huge bubble, one that according to Buffett represents rat poison.

I am at awe of a market so charged up with each analysts outdoing the other in forecasting greater and greater profits. Once again, had this NOT been holiday season i would swear this resembles a blow off top of major importance.

But i have been proven wrong so far and past this week there will NEVER be a deep drop. Not humanly possible. Our economy depends on this time thru end of year to be peaceful and always slanted higher. ALWAYS! Since it is being supported by the PPT the first test will be tomorrow IF the inflation data pops back up.

I hope it does, and the market shrugs it off. The SP500 P/E is 30.5 and Shiller at 38 times earnings. Pump this sucker up. The more absurd come January the more pressure the faster and steeper the drop.

[jxyzobrien]

trump is still 2 months away
the market is a biden rally
it has not begun to price in trump policy.
I did what i could i voted in florida
America is asleep and will get what it deserves a new dictator

[gdl]

25% in one year. 50% in 2 years. 100 % in 5 years. The street is giddy with accelerated profits exceeding the last 2 year trend. Straight up. Heck they have been right so far and maybe the extreme earnings multiple can be justified. Maybe debt is never an issue Maybe Trump will give away everything for Wall Street. Maybe we live in a new paradigm.

Maybe this dream turned into a nightmare before we wake up and realize we are still in a nightmare after.

[gdl]

Market going crazy with expectation of 7500 on SPX in 12 months on top of 25% move already. The window for a deep drop is closing real fast. This week is absolutely the latest timeframe. Survive that and we have another frothy move till mid January.

The euphoria is now extreme. Never saw anything like it. Everything flying high. I had thought a crash last week would reset the mania but instead the PPT will have to navigate such wild bets till January. I don’t think they can temper the mood here. The mother of spike moves perhaps?

[gdl]

Market going crazy with expectation of 7500 on SPX in 12 months on top of 25% move already. The window for a deep drop is closing real fast. This week is absolutely the latest timeframe. Survive that and we have another frothy move till mid January.

The euphoria is now extreme. Never saw anything like it. Everything flying high. I had thought a crash last week would reset the mania but instead the PPT will have to navigate such wild bets till January. I don’t think they can temper the mood here. The mother of spike moves perhaps?

[gdl]

Bitcoin blew out the target so easily and decisively. The insanity of the moment will not be seen or recognized by anyone. Watch the dictator fly. He is a man on a mission. To destroy the world as quickly as possible. There is NO WAY we don't have a devastating crash or perhaps multiple crashes in his term. An impossibility.

His cabinet picks are aimed to destroy ever single safety-net. The public cheer him on. His power, no hold barred speech on the day he is crowned will surely become the crowning moment in history. Every day I listen to his administration picks and plans to have federal and local gestapo round up illegals. it will be in EVERY person's sight. Even the rural ones. Many will cheer releasing their sadistic behavior.

This is a country that does not deserve saving. I know my words are over the top crazy. Had anyone here read my words for long ago an reviewed the responses it did sound crazy then. NOW however the 47% of the voter knows in their hearts what I say is true and want desperately to not believe it.

His has more power than Putin and no conscience or thought of the future for our country. He trumps XI in all things. he has no burdens or concerns for his people as XI does. Not a rational human being. His mind fabricates truths for him.

But hey in a few short months even the most optimistic Pollyanna will cry themselves to sleep. I can't wait for the speech that frankly I thought would have already happened. i guess he is saving that for the crowning. The ODDS of a Depression or Nuclear War is now over 75%. I can't under any circumstance see any other path. The timeline is obvious BEFORE his term is up. I expect multiple crashes spaced no longer than a year apart once the first one happens. I had thought that was this month. Now in mid-January. It can be wrong because i can't figure out just how or when the masses wake up to the horrors they asked for. I was early on the Pandemic. I even had hope Harris would pull it off.

Now to the focus of market behavior. A hard one since we are riding a high not seen perhaps since the 1920's.

[gdl]

Moire blowoff signs. Bitcoin hit my momentum target of 84,645 today. Briefly went above at 84,800. This should be some sort of major resistance. All this is happening BEFORE the holiday move. The dollar and yields still moving higher. INSANE behavior. Stocks do not like higher bond yields. Bitcoin spiking here suggests the holiday will push it even further. Ame with stocks. A hug over extension in an already stretched valuation.

How we hold up till early January will be interesting. The P/E ratio now above 30. Shiller P/E of 38 is a new all-time high. We cheer a TRUMP dismantling and hyper-inflationary policy.

I am at a loss for words just how far in the stratosphere we have come. Since we are starting the holiday period it seems only natural to conclude this bubble actually accelerates.

[gdl]

Can the impossible happen. This market is extended, way extended. It would seem to me to be miraculous if we can contain this move till early January. But the holiday season is ALWAYS held as sacred territory for investors. The PPT should prevent a waterfall event. Maybe my overactive imagination is playing tricks on me. The dollar, bond yields are screaming breakout again. BITCOIN has broken out and the last time this happened it was a 5 month move followed by a crash. we are in the 5th month.

I must admit my intuition has been way off. I know how strong seasonal play is and that we have NEVER seen any real damage in this window. But I am worried. Since TRUMP has no say in policy here what can cause a breakdown so soon? If we are about to crash the PPT should hold this up till after the switch in kings. I hope so for any major problem here during holiday season will cause amplified repercussions to the economy.

Hope my "feelings" are just an after affect from the crushing win Trump had. Spooky. Hope to shake pff this "feeling" and get back to normal assumptions.

[gdl]

Since the window for a deep drop is about closed, I can only assume we have the 5-month rally and that lasts till January 7th. If the economy does NOT show signs of inflationary pressure between now and then can trumps agenda affect the market. They already know of his plan. At what point do they realize just how permanently destructive it is. Not talking morality since they don't care. Not talking greed and criminal behavior since they don't care. ONLY talking economic sense. Unfortunately, it took 5 weeks of a known pandemic with known consequences to be seen. There would need to be some part of Trumps plan that would wake them up immediately. I expect there just will not be that moment of recognition on January 6th.

We should have a 5 month top on January 7th range. Thats based on last few wave structures. I suppose the steepness of the move till then determines the correction phase after. We are in the honeymoon stage. Will Trump actually declare enemy states and punishment? If I was him, given his personal belief of persecution and now his status of God power why would he hold back? I was wrong last week assuming he needed to vent. Can he hold his tongue on January 6th when we have the official crown placed on his head?

I will likely place another wild crash bet at that time. With the Pandemic it took me three tries. The valuation level, GDP to Debt, euphoria, will be that much stronger. If a layman like myself can predict the future a decade out and watch it unfold as i described, why am I alone? In fact it has turned out even more dire than I described. Economic, political, moral, ethical, paranoia, embracing evil. Off the charts. Just reading off Trumps past requires an iron stomach and soulless personality.

How long can we dance with the devil without stumbling.

[gdl]

Now that the public embraced Trump with open arms he will take that gesture and twist it behind your backs till it breaks. I was very wrong on his immediate gleeful response to spew out his grievances and demands. He will wait till January 6th. 11 million deportations, pardons for all, tax plan that will mushroom the deficit by over 7 trillion by 2035. Intimidate and restrict FCC land FTC incenses making sure they suppress criticism and positions not to his liking. Orwellian plan set in motion immediately. Any challenges to these proposals will be squashed by congress and the Supreme Court.

How and why the Wall Street players can't see beyond their immediate profits is something i will never understand. We will be IN a Deep Depression inside these 4 years. The carnage from decades of abuse and greed will be amplified and spike the imbalance as a rocket takes off after liftoff. I suspect we have at least 2 crashes in his term. The first one I had thought would be here now or at the latest January 2025. If that does not happen, we should be fine till the actual damage is felt, 12 months from now.

The worst case scenario has unfolded. A godlike ruler anointing him so by the Supreme Court. A man on a vengeance and retribution spree. Graft, greed, and concerted effort to dismantle this republic. We should see this process on a daily basis starting on January 6th.

Let me be crystal clear. This is not a timing or betting guess. This is an immediate future that will come together within the next 4 years. It will be felt by all and get progressively worse each year. I fooled myself into thinking Harris had a chance. Wishful thinking. She was destroyed. This is the late 1920's Germany. People begged for a dictator to FIX all their problems and make them feel pride again. All despots' playbooks include scapegoats.

The amount of bigotry in the open will become just normal changes to accept. The moral ethical consequences will also be seen clearly and accepted. In 4 years' time I am not even sure we will have another election. Due to war, military suspension or changes in the constitution with the help from the Supreme Court. In other words, a completed dismantling would be seen in these next 4 years. The damage would be COMPLETE! 25% unemployment will just be the start and a wild west approach to life will demand you arm yourself at all times.

[joyceschoice]

GDL - I want to come back and acknowledge that your prediction of Trump winning this election was spot on. I was wrong. I am not a savvy market timer, more of a patient type as I look for longer trends. So good luck with the market timing and though I'm not pleased that you are right with this election, it is what it is.

[gdl]

Fixated on the date being a major top. Obviously wrong. We have till early January to even consider a crash. Current state of economy: like debt to GDP, M1 to M2, Buffett adding more cash as we speak and from 300 billion it is now 325 billion, valuations. Political dismantling of the system. 3 branch sweep. The speed at which change will happen is going to make even my head spin. From day ONE he will make history. His first agenda is that of Hitlers. Same playbook. Go after the illegals. Storm troopers without the help of local police in non-cooperative states will be seen dragging and kicking their victims. NY, New Jersey, California, etc... If he tries to (allow) republican owned businesses to keep them the news will make him have to reverse his pledge. Every day you will see and hear storis about families and children being ripped apart.

This is his FIRST and Foremost pledge and action. If the Supreme Court gest involved, they will either dismiss the case or allow him total authority. But it doesn't even matter since TRUMP will just IGNORE them and once he does they are Paper Tigers forever.

[gdl]

Pulled the trigger despite no sign of a dramatic drop anytime soon. My window closes today and I decided to make the bet expiring Wednesday the 13th.
Perhaps not the wisest choice but the fact that it goes against logic, likely rising bond prices despite the 1/4-point drop.

If we don't close today decidedly lower my bet is likely gone. The price was too enticing. 11/13 SPXW Put at 5500 for 1 dollar. Placed 10.

[gdl]

Promises promises. Trump made it clear he will deport 11 million illegals with the help of state police. ONLY Democratic governors are fighting back. Easy transition. The Supreme Court will let everything fly until they are forced to side with TRUMP. All Departments will be gutted or done away with completely. His tariffs also will be set in place within his first 3 months in office. The STREET is as happy as if they just received news that Trump will personally guarantee their double-digit profits each and every year

Now to the market. It still feels like a spike move that will collapse any minute. The FED is likely to drop by one quarter point since they know the massive inflationary policies of TRUMP. The street is begging for 50 basis points. Will that be the spark that reverses this move just as quickly? Now i doubt it. BUT today is the line in the sand. If we do not reverse strongly after 2 PM the odds of a crash next week are almost zero. Holidays never get touched.

The move here from recent lows is at the 3 month point. We can and likely will extend that to 5 months and that brings January 5-7 as next likely top.

I hope 2 PM on does not cause a dramatic shift. If it does i will be FORCED to place a crash bet for Tuesday. This is my last possible day for a 4 day crash event. I don't anticipate that reaction but will stay alert to one.

[gdl]

I see terminal moves in the dollar and bond yields. that means we should have a nice reversal. if it continues any higher, we breakout and accelerate higher.
Bonds are enemies of the stock market and yet they are moving in sync. I don't know the resistance level or the point the street panics as stock valuations are simply unsustainable. But I just don't know where the pressure lies.

For now ONLY another spike move early tomorrow would change my assumptions. I currently see a rally till early January.

[gdl]

Giving up hope of a crash here. Irrational exuberance can easily last till New Year. the policy of TRUMP is crystal clear and yet the street cheers massive debt, inflation accelerating tariffs to stagnant consumer spending and raise the price of OIL also. The roundup of illegals will disrupt the supply chain and costs significantly. The stripping of all government agencies and department will cause havoc and massive criminal activity. His plan to lower cost to investors is an obvious one. But if the market tanks there will be no profits.

I marvel at the ability to see (only) one side of any equation. I am wondering when Trump goes off rail and spouts spews demands drastic treatment of immigrants and his perceived enemies. I was expecting this to already be happening. Read the emotional euphoria from trump wrong.

The current spike bothers me. it is OFF in timing and accelerated the steep move even higher and faster than preciously. a frenzied move?

[gdl]

An historic spike if we can manage to capture 6060 in the SPX tomorrow. A huge euphoric move not seen in a long time This as Buffett has 325 billion and counting in cold hard cash. He must be wrong or the street is. Please hit my target tomorrow please have the Fed say and act in the most favorable manner tomorrow.

I can dream. A vertical move based on optimism over a one sided GOP victory. Too bad like a pandemic they seem to forget the massive stagnant inflationary policy about to be unleashed. I guess they can win on just their dream as long as no one wakes up.

When does Trump release his anger? It will be historic in scope and damage the dream of Wall Street I am surprised he hasn’t reverted to his usual self yet.

Regardless. A move hitting the momentum peak would do it. I suspect that is too much to ask.

[gdl]

IF we hold up at the highs of the day by close i can actually see a 4th up day and a spike move even greater than today. The FED will announce their rate cut tomorrow and their forward-looking view for more cuts. IF the street likes what they do and hear the momentum can be compounded from the cheer about a dominant Republic sweep.

ONLY then could I consider a crash immediately ahead. No one saw this coming and in fact everyone assumed some corrective pattern was already in play.
I keep wondering is the PPT hand in this. it makes no sense since irrational exuberance like this is never needed especially coming into a 45 day holiday season.

They have a shorter and shorter timeframe to contain this run-a-way move. In fact any deep drop next week would be bumping into the holiday spending season. It also guarantees such an extended move into start of new year they would be helpless to stop a crash of historic magnitude. that is WHY I ASSUMED we get it over with this week.

We ALSO have a clear wedge pattern from 9/19 on. Clearly defined base in a straight line and an expanding upside move. it seems like a breakout event had we not started for absurd levels. Everything screams crash. But time is running out IMO.

[gdl]

I find it fascinating and disgusting at the same time to be constantly reminded of our human nature. From Israels holocaust and the inhuman normalizing by the Germans to exert such horrors, to the Isreal decades long internment of the Palestinians all the while systematically destroying them and using the same propaganda tactics the Germans used on them.

To this day a majority of Democrats find excuses to latch onto in reasoning why we allowed this monster to be let loose with unimaginable powers. Not gun restrictions, liberal freedoms to gays, restrictive policies and added taxes. You see there can be no argument why we loved HITLER so much and allowed a 12 year reign in Germany. Why we allow a monster like Trump to be given godlike powers to finish the job he started. The Republics are already lost souls in in many cases with no souls. When you stack up atrocities by Trump there can't be any reason to even consider a way to accept them. Excuses for our inability to accept our own demons.

We are running in sync with the economic absurdities. This on the day we have declared our suicide pact. We gleefully embrace it as a glorious event.

[gdl]

The HOUSE is up for grabs as the Republicans lead by 8 seats with 51 undecideds. If they get all branches of government Trump will demand they follow every single demand, and FOX will make sure they stay in line. Like Hitler this GOP actually thought they can control trump and pass ONLY the bills and laws they deem appropriate.

BEFORE January 6th we will hear from Trump on his list of demands. It will be shocking to the sober minded. To the rest it will pass thru their ears as a puff of wind.

On this move I have low to high of exactly 3 month on the 7th. BUT I also have a momentum chart that tells me the resistance area is right below 6100.

As of 11 AM we are at 5900. Can we have a 3 day spike move and reach my target tomorrow at SPX 6100? Highly unlikely. ONLY such a move would place the odds of a blowoff immediately ahead as strong.

Blows my setup to hell. And that is where we are headed.

[gdl]

Just saw last nights acceptance speech and it was NOT what I thought. in fact it was downright gracious. Thanking and promising and lets get together. I guess he didn't think he would make it and is giddy over the prospect. How long will that last. If he doesn't turn around and reveal his true self today or tomorrow I must confess I Got This Completely Wrong.

I ponder whether the 6th stays as a turning point high. Interestingly I have around 6066 as the next top based on momentum. Unlikely it hits today.

[gdl]

New highs on the 6th. Never thought we would get there. Tomorrow, we have the FED announcement and that should sober up the market, but will it start a rout. Will Trumps vengeance and speech be enough? This is wild irrational exuberance since his plan calls for massive deficits and tariffs. It will also call for a national ban on abortion and blaming everything on the illegals here with plans to deport 10 million. The gloves are off. he has nothing to lose by revealing his master plan and the GOP will have to go along.

I can't wait for the speech. Since his criminal behavior in the past didn't move the needle will this. I suspect ONLY if it concerns GREED and PROFITS.

I am going against my original plan to bet on the 6th unless we see something that will drastically turn this euphoria. This move exceeded my targets by a long shot. Momentum alone should keep it in the stratosphere. No dramatic drop in next few days mean we have a bull run till early January at the earliest.

[gdl]

I saw the 6th as the possible new high and dismissed it as just the highs before a deep drop. NOW we are about to hit NEW HIGHS all by tomorrow.
This market LOVES TRUMP. What will derail the immediate move? I don't know. But NEW HIGHS seems likely IF TRUMP wins.

I had hoped against hope that Harris would putt it off but not now.

[gdl]

The new master plan is working. In all major swing states polling places are inundated with BOBM threats. You can guess which districts. Delay and discourage.
It also seems that Trump should EASILY win and by a margin over 5%. Thats just preliminary indications at 9:30 EST. I expect a victory speech tonight regardless of the actual declaration tomorrow. I am surprised by how easily he is winning and by large margins. Perhaps i am reading into this too early but it does not look good for Harris.

Now the scenario of a Trump win might come to play tonight. It certainly isn't the most damaging one and might not cause the market concern. We shall see.
Regardless I will watch the spike move tomorrow, as a Trump win will cause one. Will it still crash right after?

[gdl]

Held off buying today since the move was not high enough. Still looking for 5800 plus. After hours has that already and I think we capture 5820.
Not sure if one candidate will derail the after hour move but so far 11/6 just might be the top i was looking for.

If it hits my scenario tomorrow, I will adjust the crash/deep correction to be Tuesday the 12th, one day later.

I still have no idea who will win and maybe by midnight we get the answer. Like I stated before pent up anger by TRUMP will force him to announce his plan and spew hate along the way. If he loses you can bet he will explicitly call for violence and direct it at specific targets.

Let the Games Begin!

BTW, if we have no major move this week it is more than likely we get NONE till early January.

[gdl]

Trump can’t hold back. His recent speech calling Nancy a bitch. Exhalation over ban on abortion. I can’t wait for either his victory speech or his desperate attempt to overthrow the vote

[gdl]

SPX 5768 overlapped the wave on the 4 hour chart but NOT the one day chart. Hope to see even more gains before we close out today. The closer we get to my 5800 mark the more I feel comfortable betting the Long Shot.

Market is convinced TRUMP will win based on many polls. They seem to want to accelerate the greed and quicken the next depression. I have actual data points and fundamental reasons, and I will be anxious to pull the trigger for the bigger crash than the one I expect next week.

We have marginalized a Pandemic till death hit us, greedily voted for a man that the Devil himself is envious of and yet as i speak MOST anyone reading my posts would conclude I have an active imagination. Seems they find ways to dismiss Trumps own pledges and words thinking it is just for theater.

You see I know for a FACT the political environment is so outrageous, so destructive, and so feverishly cheering it on I shake my head and question how this species survived this long. What bothers me most is the complete blank responses when i present Trump past and resume. His behavior is so transparent, so he hides nothing. in that aspect I cringe with the lack of response. The human minds must shut out the contradictory reasoning they have and instead feed the ones they approve of. Heck a known Pandemic with charts and destructive powers of the past was completely ignored with one phrase that solved their dilemma. The STEET must have accepted this Pandemic and concluded there wasn't going to be any problem in the future. Without discussion, analysis on that one phrase we accepted it. DONE! Same with Trump. DONE.

[gdl]

PUMP IT UP! Good start today. Still need an overlap which places SPX above 5800. It is following the last wave down. in that one we had the final corrective lows 3 days after the overlap move. I can't see this current move as complete and therefore must conclude there will be a final drop very soon and a fast one at that.

I hope today surges enough to declare an overlap. If not i will have to decide if that will occur tomorrow or not. .

[gdl]

My setup is falling apart. Ned to see a 100 SPX jump by tomorrow or early Wednesday. Not likely. Seems like a slip-slide correction here or my assumption of needing a spike move before a crash is wrong. Either way I will ONLY bet if I see a situation that calls for it. A slow drawdown or a decent correction is not worth a bet here. Only looking for a fast short steep move. Maybe tomorrow we get my setup but not looking good.

[gdl]

MOTLEY FOOL - July 2024 Report excerpts

For nine decades, M2 money supply has been rising with virtually no interruption. In other words, a growing U.S. economy has required more capital to facilitate transactions.

But since reaching an all-time high in April 2022, M2 has declined by an aggregate of 3.49%, including a peak drop of more than 4.7% on a year-over-year basis in the latter half of 2023. This represents the first decline of at least 2% from an all-time high since the Great Depression.

When back-tested to 1870, there have been only five instances where M2 fell by at least 2% on a year-over-year basis: 1878, 1893, 1921, 1931 to 1933, and 2023. All four prior instances correspond with economic depressions and a double-digit unemployment rate.

The other historically flawless metric that has me believing the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite can plunge is the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE ratio.

But what's far more concerning is what's happened to stocks the previous five times the Shiller P/E has surpassed 30 over the last 153 years. Eventually, the S&P 500 and/or Dow Jones Industrial Average went on to lose between 20% and 89% of their respective value each time.

The important asterisk to this valuation metric is that it's in no way a timing tool.

[gdl]

For once I would like my setup to be correct. Can the next 2 or even 3 days have the momentum needed to spike above 5800?
The recent polls keep showing Harris gaining and leading in some red states. The real FEAR of a fascist is in the hands of woman that have men determined to blow the world up to prove their point. Will they DISOBEY their partner in the voting booth?

The M1 and M2 piece was a bit of a shocker. I didn't even consider it since it has always run in sync. Nice to scour the news articles and came across this.
IF we do hit 5800 by Tuesday I will set my bets in motion.

[gdl]

Latest poll, last 24 hours. Looks like Harris is pulling ahead in some deep red states. How is Wall Street going to take it? More importantly how is the GOP, Supreme Court and TRUMP. ALL THREE will be in play this week. ALL THREE will do everything they can to destroy their opponent. ALL THREE will try to invalidate this election. Don't believe me? Well lets just say they all THREE have something to lose if she pulls ahead and helps along her party. Seems all rode their fate on TRUMP winning.

I need to see a market that shrugs off last week and starts moving higher right here and now. that would be too easy. I have no idea how to play this if we are already sliding going into the election. I suspect the PPT will try early Monday to reverse this drip drip drip.

The report on M1 and M2 is really interesting and fits with my ominous assumption on the immediate future. it projects depression like moves, not ordinary recessions.

[gdl]

U.S. Money Supply Recently Did Something That Hasn't Occurred Since the Great Depression -- and It May Foreshadow Trouble for Wall Street

It foreshadows depressions. - M2 dropped 4% from M1. A record that is accurate and ominous.

[gdl]

Strategy for the 6th thru 8th and possibly the 11th.

IF we capture the 5800 marks in next 2 days, I see a minimum drop of 5500 in a 3-day window right after.
Assuming the above happens, we can extend that Friday move to a Monday CRASH (IF) external forces come to play.

If the drop continues thru election, I assume nothing that dramatic will happen. But who knows.