Alternative Path

[gdl]

So called DEAL is a TRUCE and we start all over in 60 days. Difference is TRUMP will be hard pressed to start up the war since he lost so much of his stockpile.
But the DEAL is nothing more than a NET GAIN for IRAN. Release Billions being held and other than setting the conditions that were in place before trumps unprovoked attack we gain NADA. The pressure to GIVE IN and LOSE FACE won out it seems.

This STILL looks like wave 2 of 5 with 5 being the crash. 6 days down. So far 2 days up. Bitcoin in extremely negative position. Huge candlestick patterns pointing to more damage dead ahead. OIL and Bonds have a day of reconning on the 17th with Wlash testimony.

I still don't even think this truce holds. But Monday or Tuesday we will know. Israel no longer in trumps grace. they made a fool of him. Is this a normal correction?
I will let the market action tell me. if it is we have another 3 months to wait as a minimum for a possible crash.

SpaceX made the NAZI a trillionaire and the biggest flop in history. Valuations are absurd. It reminds me of Bitcoin but so far that has worked out spectacularly. I believe it will fall spectacularly as well.

In the meantime, I must keep my emotions in check and stop getting ahead of the situation. Hard for me. Trump will immediately attack CUBA if Iran is on hold.
He has been talking about GREENLAND and that should be right after CUBA. Reminds me of HITLER and his acquisition of nations. the world accepted it till he went too far. I wonder if we have such a situation. Is anything ever too far. CBS got green light for merger. Right on time for the funeral of 60 minutes. maybe they will do their own epitaph on Sunday.

[gdl]

If we are still in crash mode, the first wave down seems to be around 400 SPX points. If the next few days are a recovery wave 2 it should then proceed to a wave 3 down, achieving a minimum of 800 SPX point drop. Rebound should be shallow and week for wave 4. Wave 5 should see 1600 to 2600 SPX point drop.

Market popped on news but no carry over. Could his War is Over calls be another false alarm. The concessions TRUMP has to make will expose him for a fool to everyone. Even his MAGA fanatics. To reopen Stratt Trump has to open blockade, return billions held, with no guarantees on anything else. Like rolling back the same situation we had before the war. Will he do it. He is getting angry calls for his buddies. The humiliation, no matter how he spins it will be devastating. WILL HE SWALLOW THIS.

The signing over weekend will b real interesting. Will they be called back last minute. This is like a old fashion soup opera.

[gdl]

No One Has Any Idea What New Iran Deal Trump Is Talking About - From the New Republic
Trump claims US and Iran on verge of signing peace agreement, but Tehran says no final decision made - The Guardian

Seems Israel and all other nations have no clue what TRUMP is talking about. I guess we scratch our heads till the weekend. How many times had TRUMP pulled this? Weird that no one knows anything, but TRUMP claims a deal will be signed this weekend. Not by him. This seems so bizarre. To be continued. Let see how skeptical Wall Street is tomorrow.

[gdl]

External noise will complicate things. TACO caved as Wall Street expected. It is a 60-day deal BUT IRAN gest everything up front. Open Staits from both sides, frozen billions, and NO CONCESSIONS. I am guessing TRUMP is bored and need to start attacking CUBA and Greenland. I kid you not.

BUT a real settlement should help Wall Street ignore INFLATION over next few months. By Monday we see if the truce holds up. Trump ran out of easy options.

I don't think we recover from here just yet, but a normalized correction could happen, and I will lose my hope for a crash in JULY. Too early to tell.

Futures not moving much. Been down this path before. Monday will decide where we go from here.
TRUMP is likely to take heat for a deal that could have been reached before the star of this mess.

[gdl]

Supposedly TRUMP is signing a deal. get this no blockade for open straits. and caved in like returning billions held by Trump. In other words, he reset the clock to before he bombed the hell out of them. TACO does it again. it should be short lived.

I guess now TRUMP can attack CUBA and GREENLAND.

[gdl]

Big spike up now Trump from bombing the hell out of them to a deal. I do expect this to have no legs but I am surprised his word still gets a response. Stupid. Tomorrow watch the reversal.

[gdl]

Daily analysis since the market is still going MY WAY. 1 PM struggling to stay positive. matters not by close. Should see the final lows FRIDAY. Only (IF) we follow the 1929 path in such a precise way that defies logic. Today and tomorrow up or down it should be shallow moves. An attempted rally for FOUR TRADING DAYS. June 18th, a day after the FED rate announcement. I would assume the 17th end badly but that depends on what they already expect to hear. I suppose the best news is no action and no timeline to raise rates. That by itself MIGHT hold the market up on the 17th.

June 19 thru July 2 (10 days) should see another slip/slide before finding traction right before HOLIDAY CHEER. It has a right ring to it but obviously history doesn't NOT repeat the exact same way. But of course, the Pandemic did, a rare one in one hundred events.

From July 6 thru July 13 should be the last time the VIX holds up and the market has a mini rally. From there who knows how volatile it gets but a dramatic drop will commence from that point on till either 21st or a week after 28th. I am repeating myself but every day the path can change. Do nothing till then is my motto.

I am looking at a 40 to 55% drop at the lows of the biggest crash day (from recent highs). While frankly NOTHING shows this forecast yet, but it "FEELS" in sync with external developments where the only solution is a bad one.

[gdl]

On the MONTHLY candlestick patterns, I see two. One moderately bullish the other extremely so. That popped up recently. it should keep the correction, for now, in a correction mode, nothing more. It SHOULD also suggest a much stronger recovery from here implying this is after all just a correction. This will be tested over next 2 weeks.

Me, i still see a 2 month drop and last 2 weeks in CRASH MODE.

[gdl]

We have entered the eternal dream stage. Everything feels unreal but not able to affect us. OIL, BONDS, BICOIN are all in a holding pattern. The forever war is aptly labeled. Wall Street will stay in this fog till they get woken up. It is now obvious that both sides know the only reason TRUMP is sitting on his hands is because he has to. A depleted stockpile of this magnitude is so dangerous for our national security I suspect Military personnel will resign if he ignores the consequence. The magnitude of the strike on one small nation exemplifies a temper tantrum.

Notice that TRUMP has no plan other than to claim the talks are going well. He is forced to do nothing while every day he sees in the mirror the LOSER pasted on it.

Now to MARKET: It is in a strong belief that tariffs, OIL, Bond market will not derail this gray train. they are STILL outbidding their rivals on declaring the height of this stock price move by year end.

We are in day 7 of current slide. In 1929 I believe it lasted 8 days before a reprieve of 4 trading days. Those 4 days was not a typical rebound and retrace. More of a holding pattern with an upward bias. I will stop here and see if we come close to the same pattern.

The ability of the voter to stick to their own analysis devoid of real-life events and policies means this will happen again and again with more frequency.
There is no sudden realization like a light switch. ONLY bad times will be associated with the person in charge at the time. No connection between morality and sin. SHAME. EVEN a full-blown multi-decade economic collapse will only delay the next restart with another Trum figure at the helm. It is inevitable and repeatable.

TODAY I hope we slide in a controlled and slow fashion. Even an up day would be nice. I also need to see Friday as the last of the slide followed by a churning bias upward. It wil help me understand the timeline.

[gdl]

What happens when a Pandemic is treated like a minor insignificant concern, when a decade of TRUMP makes us comfortable in concluding he might be vindictive, cruel, immoral even unethical and lacks a conscience, but his heart is in the right place. the place where profits and greed shine. A place where the overwhelming concern for TRUMP is to give the ELITE the power and profits they deserve. It has worked for a decade. Unfortunately, they just never realized his true self, his true concerns. They actually believed he wears a mask and under it he plans on giving himself and his top inner circle profits and power like never seen before.

I think they miscalculated the man. His EGO and selfishness are too big and crowd's out anyone else trying to enjoy his success. ONLY when he is pushed to a corner will they finally realize his true intent. To rule the world by intimidation and cruel submission. he shares nothing. His Ends justifying a Means is a tad different that the GOP and Supreme Court. THEY unlike him don't mind being magnanimous in sharing the divided pie.

He is about to reveal his true intent. he needs a cowering obedient loyalist to then be able to show his true strength and power. he needs to demolish them and humiliate them showing his power in absolute. The ultimate sadist turns on his most loyal. This is happening NOW.

I will observe this with as much glee and delight as TRUMP himself does. His END is different than mine even though the MEANS is the same. I want to see a demonic power so satiated in power that he reveals his intent, to subjugate all, especially getting sadistic glee over punishing the most loyal. Me I want this to happen to also punish the evil they embraced but to also reveal their own punishment they intended on others. I am guilty as charged. I claim no moral ground over them. I want as TRUMP wants, to be able to expose the thin-skinned hypocrisy in human nature.

I am declaring this a CRASH scenario even though it is far from it. i am exhausted in waiting. I reveal my hand. I hate human nature.

[gdl]

Feeling good. Just day 6 from the ALL-TIME HIGHS. Things change quickly. But Wall Street needs to see that ONE DEATH ON US SOIL before they put out a white flag. Far from here. Just finished week ONE of the drop. Regardless of how this ends it is pretty much in line with an 8 week drop.

Correction/Crash - who knows.

What I do know is we should be slip/sliding for 7 more weeks. Trump continues to destroy all the REPUKS that dared to question his godlike edicts. Most have been replaced with new idolizers as the REPUK primaries are, once again, only die-hard TRUMP supporters.

Exact move of 1929 suggests two more slip/sliding days. BUT I can't continue to expect such accuracy can I,
I HOPE I got the TIMONG RIGHT!

[gdl]

*** Important FLAGGED post ***

LOOKING GREAT! If history repeats and i have the right chart from thousands to choose from, we have 2 more days before we bottom.
IF the desperation from TRUMP is reflected in the stock market BOTH have barely scratched the surface. TRUMP will now have only one option left.
Can anyone guess. Trump and then Israel will commit WAR CRIMES. First TRUMP so Israel has cover. Not going to send troops. Only special forces and a strategic BOMBING plan making everyone count. Attack on the citizens. I GUARANTEE IT!

Has to occur in next few weeks. maybe 4 or 5. Guestimate 7/11 or 12 WEEKEND. Most nations reserves will be depleted by then.

I make this as an easy claim. trump gave up on the voter and will just rely on fixing the vote in November or if that fails will SUSPEND the vote.

[gdl]

FUN TIMES. Drip, here we go. Correction is solidly started. 2 full months is the expectation. i even suppose by EVERYONE. Not of course a collapse.
OIL, Bitcoin, Bonds are all in a smooth correction zone. No break yet.

The 1929 chart superimposed on today's chart is downright spooky. Sept.3 top followed an 8-day slide. If similar we should see June 12 (Friday) as the current lows. Then we had a 4 day slightly upside move taking us to June 18. If that holds the announcement on the 17th will be processed and a delayed reaction the next day perhaps? Obviously, the exact days and timing will not exactly work. BUT the overall pattern seems very doable.

From June 19 thru July 3rd it should be sliding down with a low established there. The next 6 days or so will see a slight rebound. on JULY 13 or 14.

After July 14 we start the BIG SLIDE and end with a CRASH.

How i process this. By July 14th we should be in a solid correction mode and pressure for the downside building. Betting from then on for a maximum of 12 trading days should get you the bulk of the move. Hope the VIX is not too outrageous by then.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have done this exercise many times making speculative assumptions of a CRASH. this is no different.

[gdl]

As expected. Inflation dissected sees a tame move. Market should shrug this off thinking they have a control of future inflation. We will likely see a slide today but nothing to break the Bull.

A 2 month correction is normal. The last 2 to 3 weeks will give us a great clue if it sets up for a Crash.

The forever war Is heating up. Still early in this drama.

[gdl]

This reminds me of the announcement that a deadly Pandemic was discovered in CHINA. It transmits thru the air and is very deadly to anyone with immune deficiencies. The street shrugged. or should I say the 3% elite easily found excuses why it wasn't going to have similar results from the past.

I strongly believe this is exactly the same argument on inflation, oil, debt, Price over earnings. We find ways to keep the good times rolling.
Will TRUMP soon settle with IRAN and open the straits. Will inflation be a passing phase. Will the total dismantling of our republic affect the stock market.

In order to believe this is all going to work out you must go back to the first 5 weeks of the pandemic and make the same argumental over again. BUT this time it does work out. Do You Feel Lucky Punk!

[gdl]

No let up for this CORRECTION. CPI, Oil Inventories. OUCH!
I just need a steady recovery from any drops early. That tells me it is on pure hope and a prayer we stay the course with record breaking earnings and market highs by end of year. This is just a small diversion that will rectify itself once OIL and the STRAITS open. Like making self-fulfilled prophesy that a once in 100-year Pandemic will not follow the path it has in the past. Now that one cost me money initially. In fact two sizeable best and I was incredulous the Market ignored a clear path forward. A 100% guaranteed path. The third time was the charm, and I made good money on that crash.

TODAY we have Republicans. News Casters, heavily entrenched MAGA nuts abandoning TRUMP. Blood is in the waters. But the PUBLIC, an extremely OBTUSE ignorant majority is still clinging onto their trust, be it ever so thin. What I believe is that TRUMP already feels he lost them and will now go into preservation mode and if that fails take us all down with him. Now that is perhaps the EASIEST thing he can do. He has the pat on the back from the Supreme Court.

My crazy notion of extreme pessimism is here. Between now and November. My ultimate FEAR. Total annihilation. Let me give you a great example of what can happen tomorrow: Take Greenland for instance. he is talking about it again. IF he acts on it what happens. the GOP will pretend it is normal, our allies will break permanently, and then? Or he is forced to attack IRANS populace, infrastructure, and thousands will be killed. OR China decides NOW is the best time to take Taiwan. ALL are serious scenarios. ALL can start WW III.

LIKE I STATED A LONG TIME AGO. I believe the next CRASH will coincide with a beaten TRUMP and only thing left is his sadistic vindictive nature. You see I fear I might make a lot of money on the next CRASH but have the money vaporize before my eyes. HE IS TAHT DANGEROUS. Why my message never gets thru as my predicts do is something i will never understand.

For now we have a slip/slide with a few short rallies in between.

[gdl]

A perfect close. It managed to capture the full 5 wave drop intra-day. The correction is on schedule with a slight possible detour off a cliff.
Trump once again promising the IRAN peace plan is days away. Wai for it. I can guarantee you the STRAITS will remain closed. As in IRANS (ONLY) bargaining chip.

Trump the two faces monster that now seems so consolatory and nice to those he planned to OBLITERATE.

Drip drip. Let me be clear. It can easily JUST be a correction. I still make no predictions only possible scenarios. Mine always calls for a CRASH if there is even a slight possibility. I am impatient and also want to see the collapse here so I can stop worrying about our future. Once the worse is here it is all uphill after that.

In THREE DAYS we learn the truth about the Peace deal. DEAL -or- No Deal.

[gdl]

Current MAPED OUT SLIDE.

Walking thru the biggest crash in modern times. TILL TODAY. I have a 22-day low after the all-time highs based on 1929. That places the current move to see a lower low than the one we just saw at JULY SECOND. Spooky. Then a 6-day attempt at a decent rebound. This coincides with Friday July 10th.

From there we accelerate the drop till the last 4 days of the crash and that will be something to behold. JULY 13 on will be a great betting window. Ending around JULY 28th.

Everything is falling apart FAST. Too fast for the slow-witted greedy billionaires. the analysts and big Brokerage Firms are firm in their assessment that the end of year will see double digit returns from here. The market, over 60% is controlled by just the top 3% elite. Talk about a single mindset. Understand them and you can guess why a CRASH happens and it only happens on rare occasions that the greed and longevity of move make it an easy call. Not on timing, only on how stretched the bubble is.

I am getting really excited here. it means TRUMPS plans for November will fail f the CRASH already happened. BUT it also means the PUBLIC will be quick to assume a fix is here and will once again place BLAME on the very people that tried to stop the crash. That is for another day.

IS THIS THE FINAL END TO A TORTUTOUS REGIME. IF we DO NOT crash in JULY only October remains. But frankly the situation today is so perfect for a crash I have a hard time pushing it back once again.

[gdl]

Just hit the range for a 5 wave drop right here. It could slid further but not by much. Seems Wall Street is now anticipating a rate high soon. Trump will not let that happen.

Only one week in. Now we see how well the market hold up. There should be buyers soon. Always has been in recent past.

Not a singl mention of the forever war and forever closure of Strait.

Now this is fun. My impulse is to bet here. But it is likely going to see resistance on the downside once this wave finishes.

[gdl]

Big Day today. Started strong and fell apart. We are OBVIOUSLY in a correction at a minimum. OIL and Bond yields remain steady. Seems no one believes the forever war is still on and that Inflation is here and getting worse. Like a known Pandemic. we refuse to accept reality till it bites us in the ass. That will be within the next 30 trading days.

Oh yeah, the latest poll numbers. TRUMP down to 35% from 36%. At this rate he will lose another point if he blows himself up. We are the most self-destructive species on this planet. How we survived this long only required a lack of innovation. Seems we have exceeded that barrier. Bombs away.

[gdl]

Market not recovering as I expect muddling through Bond market and Oil should soon be front and center. Complacency strong. Forever war with no worries and no news.

Trump all out blitz to discredit voting and demand loyalty. Bitcoin stopped the bleeding for now and I can seem to be a normal retrace but to me it already failed. This should lead on a complete breakdown. One week gone 7 to go.

[gdl]

The FOREVER WAR has been baked into the market with a steady 90 dollars a barrel OIL cost. Their analysis seems to have a big gaping hole. Everyone knows the world reserve is being deleted daily, and a real crisis will hit within the next 60 days at most. We know June 17th will not see rate cuts. We also know TACO has no plans and will sit on his hands till they get numb. Tis as both CUBA and Greenland anxiety is resurfacing. He will attack CUBA first and boredom will set in and then Greenland. The VOTER will yawn and decide all is good.

Federal Judges are working overtime stopping TRUMP left and right THE NEXT bombshell, did I say seashell? No the next dramatic news story will be TRUMP officially refusing to abide by a Judge's rulings. the reaction will be as all his past atrocities happen, with a nod and move on.

Market so far in a clear corrective phase. No panic but no ability to snap back. Wall Street is all smiles. For now, I am tracking the CRASH scenario first and only if that deviates will I concede just a correction. A CRASH in Late July will guarantee the GOP loses both houses in November. Can the PPT contain this current correction. It is a MUST situation. Next best thing is to help the recovery to be fast and steep. now THAT they can easily succeed in.

To be continued.....

[gdl]

If we are in the crash zone the last 2 weeks of it resulted in the bulk of the drop. the argument that we are in a normal retrace based on timeline and past results you would be overwhelmingly correct. I even stated that June/July is an obvious correction area. can you name the most aggressive nation to use unproved war claims to demand regime change and do it thru assassinations. CUBA is on its death throws as we are starving them. Invasion imminent. Greenland comes up again since this despot is bored over the stall on the Iranian front. The push to FIX the midterms is strong and getting stronger despite the PURPLE Staes concerns and resistance. Trumps desperation is at its PEAK. That alone should give you pause on how the stock market will simply ignore it.

But his POLL numbers are... drum roll please, a whopping one percent drop from the last poll taken. Yup he is loved by 35% of us. But that they REFUSE to show is by STATE he is a solid loved man in the RED STATES. the deeper the color the more loved. I expect a military presence in the voting booths by November and like crossing the border of a county you must show your papers.

Getting ahead of myself. this assumes there isn't a major revolution here before then. Nothing on an individual basis will result is such a push. ONLY a CRASH followed by public pain. If we CRASH in July, we might see such a revolt before November but highly unlikely. My forever argument about the dire situation we put ourselves into is still NOT being seen by most. STILL. Like Poland invasion we persuaded ourselves it was all over.

MARKET PATH: in 1929 we crashed exactly on the end of 8th week of trading from the all-time highs. Sept 3 to Oct 29 exactly 40 trading days. The very long and strong stock market today is reminiscent to the same mindset. It we actually did find a top on June 2 that means July 28 will be the exact 40-day mark. This is only a model not any proof it will follow the same way. Like the Pandemic of 100 years prior that MODEL was followed pretty closely with what just happened.
I am more convinced that the last 2 weeks will be identical and even the dead cat bounce right after.

If you want odds on bet, I would give the dead cat bounce a near 100 percent probability and the slower slide back below the lows set from the crash. that's the moneymaking bet. Catching the actual CRASH will be difficult and pulling the trigger the last 2 weeks of the slide will require a strong stomach.

I am trying to focus on the MARKET instead of the ever-increased insanity from TRUMP and his administration. Hope this distraction helps.

[gdl]

Analyzing the political implosion against an economic calamity I MUST give strong credence to the possibility we are in a countdown for a crash here. I know, my track record and willingness to see gremlins is strong. But the menel state of the investor, AKA top 5%, and the pavlova response every time we drop hard greed takes over it is going to take some persuasion. I see so many similarities to the 1929 crash I must assume a semblance of that path is in front of us.

That suggest some 21 days after the all-time highs we might see a low that gets the greed going. Coincides with JULY 1 or 2. Now that is downright spooky. An attempted rally should happen between July 1 and July 10. It should be weak one indicating the mood has shifted. The bottom should start to fall out after July 10 and end in the July 21 range.

A scenario i "HOPE" is similar to the 1929 one.

*** Recap: This is ONLY the most hopeful scenario I can envision and maybe even a week from now that idea becomes garbage. I will let you know if I GIVE UP on this scenario ***

[gdl]

The implosive nature of TRUMP is coinciding with the hiccup the market is currently experiencing. It is eerily symbiotic. I am beginning to believe no more than 7 weeks will go by from June 2nd before we see a final low. FINAL LOW for this cycle. Is this the ending cycle or a corrective one. Will it follow closely the lead up for the crash in 1929 or some other chart pattern. Will it occur with no warning within weeks of new highs or not. This last one I can abandon since we have been in one of the longest most profitable market cycles ever. That by itself should cause the market to shut down any thoughts of a crash just yet.

MY biggest worry is that a one-man wrecking ball will start the CRASH. That implies pure chaos with no warnings. War, internal government defying courts causing a real crisis. TRUMP has stepped up his dismantling of elections as his power diminishes and revolt from within increases.

In a normal endgame of such a huge bubble 7 to 8 weeks is the standard timeline. Since I can't control external events i can only go on past chart patterns.

Still see July 21 as the possible timeline. ONLY a wild assumption and only one scenario. I HOPE the end is here but like the past it sems we are living the Novel Waiting for GODOT.

[gdl]

RUBIO the man behind the man. The WAR IS OVER. Press has rejoiced; Wall Street has rejoiced. Now we wake up. I do believe day 100 is coming.
The amount of TRUMPIAN talks has spread like a virus. Everyone is doing it. Obliterate, peace talks going well, there is no war. Kile the DOJ itself. Poor Judges get slammed over the workload and bombarded over the lies the DOJ tells. It is beginning to sound as if a revolt is taking place but a wee bit too late for those on the sinking ship. BUT while this sounds encouraging it is a disaster moment. I warned before. We will see if my veery old repeatable assumptions are true.

TRUMP will soon SNAP. He will demand regime change and send his remaining stockpile into IRAN proper. The people will be obliterated. I have NO DOUBT. He is so pressured and hopes the corner he painted himself in will get a new set of paint. He quickly realizes he has only 2 choices. Capitulate and cave or attack.
Everything is unraveling fast. it FEELS like the end game, but who knows.

OIL reserve has maybe 3 to 4 weeks left before major spikes resume. Coinciding with the JULY 4th parade. Iran War decision will be forced on TACO.
My bet is for civilian pain instead of US TROOPS going in harm's way. The GOP will keep silent and defend when forced to.

I mentioned 3 months ago that the next possible CRASH timeline was late June/early July. It is ONLY a transitional period, not determining the strength only the strong possibility of a decent DROP.

I do love the chaos. BUT it has a deadly side. Nature has a pendulum swing from maximum order to maximum entropy. Is this IT??????

[gdl]

FOOLED ME! Bigger drop than I expected by double. But the euphoria always allows for a slow burn and at least on decent rebound. In 2 weeks, we have the speech out of WALSH. Everyone knows he would NEVER raise rates. But since the odds are split, I think a no rate decision and a boring concern for inflation will result in a decent rebound. A 2 week drop followed by an attempt to recover these losses could get us a secondary high on the third week.

I might bet for a rally after the 17th. Since everything is leaked as an insider, we should have movement on the 16th right before the speech is read. I look for spike option best and market movement more volatile on the day before announcement than usual. THE TELL. If the news extends the drop the rebound just happens a week after.

Just one more wild hope that the CRASH is almost here. Pushing it for sure. Tired of the wait. Funny part is that no matter how upsetting TRUMP gets for his backers they will NEVER abandon the GOP who allowed him to carry out this mess. TACO meet Cowardly Congress meet Vindictive VOTER.

[gdl]

Eight weeks after 666 (6/2/2026) highs will be (7/21/2026) or 9/11. Just a combination of numbers that pops up. The way we can combine numbers to get these defined sets of numbers is rather large, so I don't put credence into it but it is fun to speculate. We would need to see a droop early, as we see now, followed by n attempt to recapture the highs and a failure leading into a cascading event.

I did say many months ago that the next wind for a crash is late June early July. A CRASH in third week of JULY? Maybe.

It would fit nicely with inflation and heated economic activity leading up to an OIL crisis. Notice how TACO doesn't even bring up IRAN anymore. he is moving on to CUBA. The number ONE Nation attacking other nations unprovoked for regime change and assassinations is .......

[gdl]

The Walt Disney version of 60 Minutes. Facts and analytical thinking make it impossible to misunderstand the CBS sellout. Some individuals on the show, like in the DOJ have integrity and some find excuses based on monetary decisions. The VOTER and all 3 branches of government have already completed the coup. For the reporters that stay I have no sympathy for their decision. But given how many in the NATION was involved in the coup it really is a meaningless gesture. The 250-year anniversary coincides with its death.


I would love for the propaganda machine to explain what driving force to elect TRUMP as KING overrode his slight faults. Rape, Sedition, Extortion, attempt to hang his VP was met with a rather easy win. WON both popular and electoral college. In fact in the RED STATES, it was an astonishing 70% win.


CBS you made the right choice, profits over morals. Seems the country agrees. just ask the FOX network if the billions lost in defamation suits pays off.

[gdl]

ONLY two scenarios here.

Most likely first: The correction is due. The blowout jobs report seals the deal on NO RATE CUT. Walsh will downplay the event and suggest there is weakness in the market, and a rate cut might be warranted in the future. This will keep Wall Street happy. What he will NEVER do is announce plans for future rate HIKES. Trump will go ballistic if he does. Bit in any event the adjustment in the minds of Wall Street is taking place. No likely rate cuts for 6 or more months. Early July should then start another phase up.

Second scenario: The TOP is here. The current slide should NOT BREAK BELOW 7360. 100 points lower than mid-day move today. Even if it does break below there should be a nice rebound by JULY. That rebound will determine rather easily (The TELL) if we have much higher highs left. July into August should see a rally and should easily break old highs. If it stalls there the chances of a CRASH are 50/50 or more depending on new economic data. The WILD Card is TRUMP refusal to look back at his mistake on IRAN. the forever War becomes the forever stalemate. In Trumps case the forever checkmate.

You see while Wall Street can't think beyond their male ego. The deadline for a huge shortage of OIL is approaching, and August will be hitting a dramatic shift in world OIL availability.

In any event we would need a top established and any chance of a crash 5 to 7 weeks after those top holds. Currently it is 2026/6/2. I love to project the devils sign in this. Just a fun game. adding all the 2's we get 6. combined with the other 6's we get 666. The other coincidence spookier than I could imagine is the infamous 9/11 number combination. On March 6 2009 we had a huge crash and final move for SPX was 666. Spooky. 3/6/2009 breaks down to 9/11

Is there an outside force playing with our heads? Or do we see combinations because we want to see them. Probably the latter.

I expect a recovery before the day is out. not going positive but controlling the drop in a calm precise manner. The PPT should not have any problem with that. I also expect a calming WALSH downplaying the rate hike possibility.

[gdl]

Ring in the BELL. Bitcoin breaking down to perhaps 50K before another attempted rally, Stock Market plowing ahead with string headwinds in anticipation of Walsh statement June 17. I expect he keep rates steady with hardly a mention of a shift in future plans. he will keep his promise to TRUMP. Not sure if his calming news will be met with cheers or worries. Wall Street just might start that drop mid-month right after the speech. It makes sense. it also makes sense no real damage yet.

The Jun/July period should indicate some correction there. How deep is anyone's guess but i don't expect that to be anything that approaches panic.

The things working in MY favor for a CRASH this year.
1 - The Canary has a cold and Bitcoin is showing signs of a possible crash.
2 - The bond market, OIL prices, and euphoria on earnings have allowed GREED to plow thru the negatives so far.
3 - The geopolitical situation is finally showing a tipping point, a pushback against TRUMPs policies.
4 - Desperation on TRUMPS part will only intensify that divide.
5 - PE ratios approaching stratosphere levels.
6 - Extreme complacency
7 - Forever War will deplete government reserves worldwide soon.

The sad part is if TRUMP never started a war with Iran we would actually be higher and stay so longer. More importantly his rating would actually be POSITIVE

[gdl]

Drawdown from OIL reserves is being deleted fast. IN the next 30 day it will be dire. My argument that OIL will peak at 128 is now optimistic. if the forever war stays forever so does the escalation of OIL prices, forever higher and higher.

So while TRUMP can thumb his nose at the world forever the world will do more than thumb their nose back. Now 95. TACO by doing nothing will create a new crisis worldwide. I can't wait for Walsh and his speech on Fed fund rates.

[gdl]

The chaos is just getting started. New Spy Chief a hack with zero experience but it seems TRUMP wants to disrupt the elections and what better way. IRS immunity is just another in a wide range of increased attempt to steal elections and he is probably doing it legally as the Supreme Court steps in to make sure there is no voting rights. Seems records of his first election have been deleted in the TRUMP LIBRARY.

This is just the start of the Bizzaro world, and most voters just simply don't care of can't find these facts like they couldn't everything else this monster has done. Even on TV they seem to have amnesia.

FOREVER WAR seems like the daily TV news on Vietnam War. Get numbed to it. I wonder when TRUMP will have time to attack CUBA because THAT is a done deal.

Markets: In a correction most likely. It fits with my lows in late June/Early July but very slim chance it is anything else but a normal correction.

[gdl]

I find it amusing the lengths at which both sides distort reality as to be unrecognizable. the TRUMP voter saw his RESUME and decided it was a minor inconvenience to the fact he will purge us of the "OTHERS:" Thos disgusting creatures. No number of high crimes and atrocities by TRUMP even coming into the conversation about electing him.


Then we have the non-trump voter that blames only TRUMP as if we didn't know just who he is. The Germany "I knew nothing" defense. unfortunately, everyone watched Jan 6th in living color over and over. The anonymous polling becomes glaring when the cumulative result is in.


Neither side has any clue what i am talking about. To do so make introspection a scary proposition.

[gdl]

RUBIO went to congress and declared The WAR is OVER! Wall Street seems not to agree yet. perhaps they missed th news and OIL keeps creeping back up.

The CHART has a new high for this current leg, over 128. It is just at 95 today. But maybe I am wrong. TACO dinner yet again? I think this chicken will be the meal himself if he continues to stall here. On June 17 the first decision with WALCH at the helm. Wanna bet he HINTS at rate cuts but not yet. Street loves to hear an echo of their favorite scenario. Watch how he downplays any reason to raise rates EVER.

Spooky how late June/early July should hold on the timeline for a correction or unlikely CRASH. It only reflects the natural rhythm of the stock market and no external reason. I guess it is like a set spring that gets wound up and at some point, always needs to unwind.

So to be clear THE WAR IS OVER! Rejoicing in the streets. Poor CUBA is next.

[gdl]

MARKET DATA - still in the goldilocks range. Only problem is that they can't lower rates anytime soon and will eventually be pressured to raise them. only problem is that wages are NOT keeping up. Only problem is the best scenario by far going forward is STAGFLATION. The only problem is OIL and the FOREVER WAR. But wait Rubio just declared it is OVER! What a relief. ONLY problem is that every time earnings beat the price beats the earnings and the spread is now 34 PE on SPX. If it wasn't for the massive debt, dismantled republic, and evil permeating to every nook and cranny of this economy I would say Halleluiah.

I stated months ago on a timeline only we should see a deep correction or crash late June/early July. NOW looks like a correction ONLY. Not enough TIME for cumulated economic data to show stagflation surging.

[gdl]

Just throw up your hands and say I Give UP. The voter has, the GOP have, the Supreme Cout has. Imagine a rapist, seditionist, extortionist and man determined to HANG his own VP being praise by the same congress that cowered behind desks hoping trumps rioters don't kill them and then one week later thanking Trump. Imagine the Supreme Court had so many Judges incensed that we dared to try and stop him from running again and trod to bring him to justice. The outrage was palpable. One judge placed an upside-down flag in both residences to show that outrage and demand that sedition should have occurred. Imagine the outrage when another JUDGE took millions of dollars for the federalist cause and a third had a wife that directed her clients to law decisions directly involving her husband.


But the ultimate betrayer of this Republic and Democratic process was THE PEOPLE, yes, the VOTER. AND stupidly people actually think we are running a Republic today.


if all the Democrats resign tomorrow and allow TRUMP full reign nothing changes. he already does but with some minor noise. I say let's have peace and quiet.

[gdl]

The Supreme Court is obviously in TRUMS pocket with a thank you note. Their own ruling borders on treason. I suggest they still fly the upside-down flag and take the million-dollar trips by Federalists and make sure one judges WIFE collects her fee for winning cases that are directed at the Supreme Court to decide. But hey, what do i know. i am just a poor commoner with no understanding of THE LAW.


The amount of abuse and dishonesty by TRUMP is only matched by the Supreme Court. I think the GOP comes close and not far behind is the VOTER themselves that decided a rapist, seditionist, extortionist and a man determined to HANG his own VP was a great choice for the throne.


This nation is too corrupt to ever recover. May the real god have mercy on our souls.

[gdl]

ANOTHER GAIN for Wall Street. I want you to understand that what TRUMP is exposing himself to is embarrassment for being EXPOSED, not for his atrocities.
This is why it will be IMPOSSIBLE to win back this country. After the riots on Jan.6th all branches of government rallied to Trumps support. You would think an exposed insurrection with the leader heading it would create outrage and demand for his head. Instead, the demand was for Pence's head.

The election made it absolutely clear there was an insurrection and all parts of this Government and nation agreed it should be down. ALL. Let that sink in.
he was elected easily. For that reason. Impossible anyone can ignore that day and its significance. Even the Supreme Court understood and ONE JUDGE in particular was so incensed about the demand for Trump to be removed he sided with the insurrectionists. There is no other interpretation of an upside-down flag. NONE. Not only was that acceptable it didn't even stop him from deciding TRUMPS fate. This was one clear instance that we understood this Republic was finished. So many more since. I tell you with confidence we as a nation have gladly thrown down our arms and welcomed the invaders.

The Propaganda on the WEB supporting TRUMP is HUGE. His low rating brings out a desperate attempt to keep those that still support him and try to bring back the others. An all-out blitz. I have seen this one other time and that was many months ago. It is really startling how the fight will result in an all-out fight for their lives as opposed to the other side that still don't even realize this is happening or that there is an opposing evil working to restore their power.

Trump, the GOP, and Supreme Court will double/triple their resolve to salvage this moment. make no mistake no one is throwing the white flag. instead they are circling the wagon for their very survival.

WATCH THIS UNFOLD WITH BOLD NEW ATTACKS. The VOTER to be clear (WANTS TO BELIEVE TRUMP) again.

[gdl]

FOREVER WAR - same old. BUT one thing is sure, Iran people are hurting. Iran needs a truce of 60 days to restock and deal with th forever war after that. TOO bad Israel is sabotaging it. They get to make sure TRUMPs power is diminished and a new leader dismisses Israel and declares they are an enemy not to be trusted. The one-time play on TRUMP is as stupid as Trump accepting the deal. I still see a 60-day hiatus. BOTH sides desperate for one. IRAN would NEVER concede to Trumps RED LINE and therefore the war will continue after and blockade restarts. that is IF they can get the truce started here.

Iran need Chinas help. Trump needs a truce. Israel needs the war to continue forever.

[gdl]

BITCOIN is the ONLY stock or marker that makes sense. The canary is finding it hard to sing with all the smoke. It has a huge number of candlestick patterns that are very negative and on the weekly and monthly level. BUT in the last 4 months it managed to still be in a corrective phase NOT breaking down (yet).

In the past BITCOIN had a nasty 5-month pattern of drops. This means ONLY one kore month and even if it is BIG DROP, it will still not be a crash warning. Stock market can't contain their enthusiasm and keeps crawling ahead on bad international news. This is one POWERFUL spike move.

Here is what looks like the next 30 day move: Bitcoin can slide to 50K but likely a one-week event and likely the end of this move with a big rally right after.
it can coincide with a drop in the general market but ONLY a corrective one. Very rare we have a major crash without months of warning and hardly EVER near the all time highs. All it spells in turbulence at end of JUNE/ early JULY. A situation that can coincide timewise with a correction.

[gdl]

EVERYTHING IS FALLING APART for Trump and that means desperation is also with the GOP and Supreme Court. Everyone is finally speaking out and getting really mad externally. YUP their BALLS has finally been growing from a shriveled peanut. What it means si NOT what you would think. TRUST ME on this. I mentioned the final phase would happen EXSCTLY like this. Many years ago. I did repeat my claim over and over but now that i is happening let me remind you once again.

1 - Trump desperation is also the GOP and Supreme Courts. They all colluded to this take over. NONE can escape a bad outcome for themselves if the head of the coup fails.
2 - Watch how all THREE branches will work together now. Supreme Court has with the voting rules making sure a split is the best the Democrats can hope for. I do believe it will get so bad that if Trump losses all control ever the Supreme Court will be in danger of being FIRED. Congress will eventually be replaced by DEMS.
3 - Between NOW and election all 3 branches will get together and work together to stop the total dismantling of their coup.

TRUMP is the uncontrollable one and HE is the wild card that is likely to take us all down with him. YOU see we are gutless when major decisions need to be done. We find excuses not to do the dirty deeds. THIS will leave TRUMP pen to or destruction. Literally.

I am done. I know this sounds CRAZY but think in terms of how TRUMP has acted and will act. I see no other way out for him.

WATCH EVENTS UNFOLD THAT WILL MAKE EVERYONE SEEM SHOCKED BUT NOT FRIGHTENED. That is the danger. He will succeed in our demise and it will happen BEFORE this year is out.

Please be wrong. please please. Signing off.

[gdl]

Forever wars. Trump denies what Iran states as fact. The talks are over. Seems his desperation has no limit. He can’t start the war again because he will just reduce his stockpiles to critical levels. He must instead send in troops.

Or he can deny Irans claim FOREVER. What a clown. Bomb them to oblivion ment deplete our bombs to oblivion. Takes billions and 2 to 6 years to restock. Ouch.

A child of 10 makes better decisions. They are also more mature and emotionally stable. Now we watch the completely unhinged lunatic STRIKE.

[gdl]

The long strong spike move has no negative stochastics, no candlestick patterns reading negative. I mean not a single one. not daily, weekly or monthly.
It matched the political environment of zero concern. the horizon of clear skies with absolutely no worries. The VIX reading under 16 where 14 is the absolute lows.
Seems not a care in the world.

Now that's simply amazing. How long can this last?

[gdl]

60 Minutes correspondence are slamming the new executive producer. The staff wants to be FIRED. They are so adamant and determined to leave the INSULTS are damning. Who in their right mind would stay and allow them to ridicule their boss. YUP the News most highly prized show for decades is officially over. The pushback finally came. ABOUT TIME! But CBS will always find immoral people to take its place.

the peak of resistance against a market that is surging to heights no one dreamed would happen so fast. The DAY of Reckoning is here. Here as in perhaps weeks or months. not any longer. Here as in either TRUMP and his massive corruption and soulless polices win over the resistance OR they get drowned out once and for all.

This as IRAN officially declared the peace OVER. But the stock market must have heard a different drummer. it is at its highest for the day. Up half of a percent right NOW and still climbing. Down is up and all news is great. If I didn't know better, I would conclude the market has just peaked today. But I give little faith in the human's ability to humiliate itself even further. Also remember that a defining moment of a peak just starts the countdown for a possible crash and that usually takes about 8 weeks.

[gdl]

ONLY FOX is pretending the war has NOT restarted. ONLY WALL STREET pretends the war has NOT restarted. Got to love the 34%. Must be all rich folks in the stock market and bible belt religious fanatics that embrace the DEVIL as if it was part of their family.

This FOREVER WAR will only stop when TRUMP gets exhausted trying to explain himself. Maybe in 2 to 4 months? or maybe like the Vietnam War we get used to it. BOMBS AWAY! But at some point, TRUMP will have to break the forever war deadlock. War crimes or TROOPS on the ground. Me i know the probability is WAR CRIMES. he has done such horrendous atrocities that this will pale in comparison. Will be shrugged off. The ALLIES will not forget or forgive.

Hail TRUMP as the stock market is downright giddy over their prospects. I expect the new fresh all-time highs in PE levels soon. Faster than I even suspected. A trajectory almost at 90 degrees. I am reliving the 1920's with a major twist. The lunacy and corruption started at the very top and trickles down. the trickledown theory. The decadence, immorality, and assumption this lasts forever is so stark and startling any historian must be sweating over the similarities.

Poor Buffet, a fool that refused to get into the current era of perpetual wealth and happiness. He can't seem to be able to CHANGE. I hope the VOTER does get back to trusting TRUMP. His genius is showing. We the People obviously deserve TRUMP for GOD is on our side.

[gdl]

MARKET in over-drive. Straight up. Not even full days drop anymore. It gets swallowed up like politician's swallow Trumps (enthusiasm/orgasm).
The FOREVER WAR has been officially confirmed. No deal in sight. NADA. markets however know this dumb bastard has no options left but to send TROOPS or bomb Iranian citizens.

I do believe in the meantime CUBA will be invaded. An easy win. No way he can screw that up. We the people swallow it whole. We believe a little chore like that will be rewarded with the purging of non-white power. The POLLS keep harping on 34% approval but in RED STATES all Senators will retain their jobs. The house will switch sides ONY because midterms it commonly does. In other words. This Timne is NO different than all other midterms.

AT this pace it becomes a fate complete that we CRASH this year. Seems like a 100-year Pandemic the market has factored it all in. Can see no disruption like spiking OIL prices, inflation, AI damage. NOPE. All good. NOPE. All GREAT!

BTW OIL PRICES should hit 128 or higher soon. I guess that might cause a day disruption in the stock market surge. The ability to discount what seems like a shoe in bet is simply as amazing as the Pandemic being ignored. But hey, maybe we are living in HELL and this dream lasts forever. Yeah that must be it.

[gdl]

Talk of CUBA going strong. 2 down and how many to go? Forever Wars. IRAN, what no finalized version of a 60-day plan. not even an agreement to have one. Shocking. I suspect TRUMP will just have to have two wars at the same time. Cuba a walk in the park. Maybe in a month or 5 his rating will drop another full point.
The November election is a LOCK! I can guarantee the results here and now.
1 - HOUSE split but not by a margin suggested today.
2 - Senate a lock for the red white and trump. Not even close. REPUKS all the way.

It just means the Supreme Court will continue to spank the lower courts for interfering. When is there a nuclear confrontation? All i know the situation cannot be any more perfect and timelier. If we escape one before 2027, I would call that a huge victory.

[gdl]

Forever wars. Iran about to go into phase two before any pretend phase Cuba invasion in the same time span.

Weeeee.

[gdl]

Forever war. Place your bets. Deranged erratic dictator has finally gotten low enough polling the 6 republican cowards in the senate finally broke from his grasp. At least for now.

I find it amusing that as Trump deteriorates into a mass of desperation and unleashed fury proportional detachment of loyalist emerge. No not the solidly loyal republican core but rather the Purple States.

Watch how every warning sign of trumps determination to plunge us into chaos is matched with fear by his GOP. Both trumps determination and GOP fears will be proportional Another war with Cuba is around the corner. This will fracture his base even more. But these cowards will need a threat of total annihilation before declaring their hip independence

I marvel at universal response to the devils antics. Only after the devil strikes a blow to the average voter will they decide to get a backbone. Proportional. Never commit till they see a clear irreversible trend. Is Trump finished. Will he regain his polling.