Alternative Path

[gdl]

EIGHT DAYS IN A ROW. No ability to rally at close BUT not major breakdown. in fact, it is so tame I question how this can be. PPT?

I called for ELEVEN, but th move is so tame it has to drop hard from the start tomorrow. and continue dropping for three more days. Unlikely.

The last 5 minutes was very interesting. Dropped from nowhere as all day it struggled to make any direction. PPT? I think so. This could mean the pressure is too great to hold overnight and starting to see a need for a release valve. if the close was real I expect to see damage early tomorrow with perhaps one more attempted rally mid-day but should fail badly.

While I CLING to the hope we crash by end of JULY The length of this sideways pattern is troubling. It is possible it gets condensed and the big damage starts on Monday BUT even for me that is stretching it.

[gdl]

The ease at which the initial drop got taken out and is now flat suggest to me we are in a correction but a boring one. Slow and steady. UNLESS we have a dramatic drop late today, I would now conclude a possible two-month correction ending at the same spot i suggested for a crash. We definitely needed to see TODAY as a watershed event breaking down the complacency. we have not.

Will the next 3 hours change my mind? Most likely NOT. Oh well.

[gdl]

Something is bothering me or should I say a date that might affect the market in a BIG WAY.

My best target for a crash is July 28th. Always has been. I just realized that on the 29th Walsh gives his rate decision. Can we actually crash or at least have a deep drop on the 28th and on the 29th have Walsh give us something that the street desperately wants? Just a wild idea. It would accomplish an immediate rally and the JOY should create one of the biggest fastest rebound in history. I always saw a rebound like in 1929 that lasted then for 2 plus days. It spiked big time before collapsing even lower than the crash lows.

I am once again way ahead of myself. Let s wee if tomorrow starts that slide till July 1 or 2.

[gdl]

After hours looking better. Bitcoin broke to 58K suggesting a nasty drop is coming. SPX after hours down 55 points.

Longest drop that I can remember at 7 days in a row. I stated the drop has to accelerate and perhaps here it is. Premature but encouraging to see.

TACO can't get the IRANIANS to stop contradicting him. Seems every time TRUMP lies, they mention deal is off. Like PAVLOV they are ringing the bell whenever TRUMP backs away from pledge. I am surprised OIL is only at 70 but that can change on a dime. How deep and how many consecutive days down are we going to see here.

Frankly while it looks OK there needs to be a more dramatic drop and quickly. Things have to start unraveling soon. I suspect BOND yields should soon break out, bitcoin obviously the first speculative thing to go needs to lead the whole market down. Complacency very strong and VIX is proof of that. No hint of fear yet.
Will the tenuous deal completely fall apart in next few days? Will Trump outdo himself again. The dollar looks like it wants to break out as well.

[gdl]

DAY SEVEN down. But it is pathetically shallow. At this stage if the game it has to pick up dramatically. That means the next 4 days has to be down and dramatically so. OR this is JUST a correction.

It did drop the longest in a very long time. 7 days. NO ability to rally at end of day. DOW held some of the gains. NASDAQ the leader on the downside.
Like i stated at the top, without a deep drop right here and now the July 2nd price will NOT be a decidedly deep low and temporary support.

I am most likely reading too much into the 7-day drop. ODDLY if we do form a low on July 2nd, I might be tempted to play the next 5 or so days for a decent rally.
To be reviewed in a later date.

[gdl]

NASDAQ under water for a while now, followed by the SPX. the real BIG winner is the DOW, just 30 boring stocks. The rats are certainly scrambling to find value.
As of NOON we have a flat SPX, drop continues in NASDAQ and the big winner once again is the DOW. Call me crazy but that indicates to me the market is rotating BIG TIME to so called safe stocks. No panic yet, far from it. in fact this could just be the early warning signs of a final bull market ending.

In order for me to feel comfortable with a crash scenario by late JULY the market has to telegraph real danger signs that most will ignore. But they have to be there.
There has to be a long single wave down lasting 10 or 11 days, and it must gain in intensity from here on. Ideally July 2nd should be the lows of this current wave structure. If it is, regardless of the steepness of the drop I will assume the next 11 days would be all DOWN. Whether JUST a correction or the real thing.

I ALSO have a feeling this will be connected with TRUMPs external events. He is being humiliated by all on a daily basis. He has NEVER experienced such treatment before. I trust in my long knowledge of TRUMP and am sure he will lash out in the most world-shattering way.

[gdl]

BIG DAY TODAY. The spike opening will determine if this current move is corrective of POSSIBLY something more.
We also had a 6 day drop as the first wave down did. The PPT might be working hard to day to make sure the spike move ends the day in a very positive note.
If we actually slide again by close that is ominous sign.

==========================================================

In the time it took me to write this we spiked from SPX 50 to flat now. Nasdaq negative but DOW is SURGING. It is a HUGE warning sign. Money, like rats, needs to find safe haven when disaster is about to strike.

DOW the most easily manipulated also. We are not out of the woods yet despite this weakness in the other indices. The candlestick patter for SPX has some longer-term positive readings. I wait to see if those changes. The 2-month drop is reminiscent of just a NORMAL correction so far. The 2 months is an average and it sits on my crash point.

NOTHING so far gives me clear confidence we are seeing a dire ending yet. I love to project and wish for it. That isn't enough it seems. But the longer this current drop lasts, 6 past days and counting the more I can add to that confidence.

All within 15 minutes of OPEN! Can't wait for the close today.

[gdl]

the pattern: 6 days down, 3 up, now 6 days down. if we recover from here in a multi-day move MY assumptions become suspect.
Tomorrow might either help confirm my assumptions or negate it. Bitcoin hanging by a thread. I need to see a long-continued streak down with minor recoveries of no more than one day. I was looking for 11 days drop to make my assumed target date valid.

The mess this world is in keeps getting more pronounced and defeatist. Supreme Court helping with that part. Insane the money we throw away and the enormous insider stealing. There is even a group that gets paid millions to allow access to TRUMP for pardons. The GOP is the Politburo and Trump the Mob Boss. Only description that fits. And like the citizens of Russia, we seem to adapt very well to this process. Stange since we never knew this type of dictatorship before but has eased into it very comfortably.

[gdl]

BITCOIN the canary in the mine shaft. It is in trouble again. Hitting critical support and if breaks it will have no resistance all the way to 30K.
It could of course be the absolute bottom and a double one at that causing a huge rally ahead. Which do YOU see. Weekly stochastics and monthly are flashing RED.

It should lead the crash, not run alongside it. This is my TELL. Dogs like this and SPACEX. This as the Supreme Court is telling the world we are a closed society and do not want your masses unless you are white and can pay an entrance fee.

I absolutely LOVE to see my theory on the human species ability to rule by emotions only. Blocks everything out but a rigidly pre-defined code of conduct that can justify genocide. I am likely one of a very few that has seen the storm coming. Knew the impact. And is trying to figure out when the rest of the world sees it as well. I suspect not till actual damage and not the flooding potential, the wind damage potential, the tornado potential. it all has to be here at the same time.

Obviously there has been dark clouds and wind picking up for a while now. Rain has also started. Thunder and lightning also here. Tornado watch and flood watch. Will it be in next few weeks?

Market support: 6900 is first warning and attempt to hold, then 6300. After that it should slide with not much resistance.

[gdl]

Looking at the DOW, you would think the economy is exploding on the upside. Money pouring. Or should i say money leaving all other overpriced asset classes.
The need to park it somewhere is evident. New Highs at a time of maximum turmoil. I would define that as a blow off shift before there is no place to go.

This can last months. I HOPE it ends here and now. I need for the world to be visibly shaken and financially worried to wake them out of their hate and selfishness.
The HATE will just be displaced to the people that allowed the huge bubbe to burst. They don't give a crap over decency, moral code, or even a conscience. BUT it does reset their priorities and allows them to vent. No not on their own dishonest selection.

The SHIFT. It is there and felt. Is it temporary or a tipping point. I waited so long that I can't be a valid judge of the current situation. I am a perverted investor with questionable morals myself. i actually want to see the masses SUFFER. Who does that? I believe strongly the ONLY way human nature is changed is thru a sledgehammer cracking your skull open. Seems anything short falls short of change.

One thing i am pretty sure of in this current market is that a mass shift needs many small blows to the head and when the excuses and avenues to switch your money to more profitable asset classes they seem to come to the same conclusions at the same time. that's because 60 plus percent is money from billionaires. So while everyone will tell you it is impossible to predict the markets i can say with confidence there are times when greed and complacency is so strong these same billionaires think alike. The damage to the market in the two months BEFORE a crash is the mental switch that goes on in their heads. DOUBT starts setting in and when they wait for the rebound and it doesn't come doubt turns to panic. TODAY there is only a slight doubt and complacency is still strong. But it eats away and gest stronger and stronger till ....

The rich rats are scrambling on a ship that is sinking. they don't realize it yet and instead move to the part of the boat that seems more stable. The DOW.

[gdl]

If we are in a possible crash pattern there should be constant pressure down. Any rebound off a decent drop should end the day on the weak side. Today isa great example. SPX up 55 at 11 AM. It should be either a loss for the day or a small gain. I think this will go on till July 2nd. Obviously, the market can do whatever the heck it wants. I just need to see a constant negative drumbeat till the crash and every week it continues to slide further and further down.

The Supreme Court just allowed any green card individual at the border to be delt with in any fashion with no reason for cause. in other words, turn them away.
They knew what they were doing when they made sure TRUMP would be our dictator.

Daily the news is stark and daily the same people react the same way. ONLY a CRASH will change that. People tend to blame the party that is in power when they are financially hurt. If we don't get in NOW then a crash by October is UNLIKELY due to the proximity of the election.

[gdl]

Five days down and maybe 6 to go. I would really appreciate a symmetry on the wave structure. makes life so much easier. IF if if. If pigs could fly. I will wait anxiously. Need to see the lows of this current wave on July 2nd. It will give me a chance to TIME a CRASH if that is even possible. It feels right given the complete breakdown of TRUMP. he has enough FED Judges to allow some of his corruption to get thru, but a CRASH negates all that.

[gdl]

Great close. No ability to rally. We should hopefully see a slow grind till July 2. Don’t care if each day slips or has small traction as long as it reaches a wave 3 drop lasting another 5 or so days.

I suspect the drop by July 2 will have investors itching to get in at a great price. That’s what I hope for.

Of course if it is a normal correction that might be the wise choice.

Will be hard for me to sit on my hand till July 13. All this talk can easily be wiped out by a few days of market noncooperation . We shall see.

[gdl]

To be clear; A drop starting now needs to see a long steady drop with mild one day rebounds in order for MY Crash Scenario to work. At least that's MY theory.
Tis current move is day 5. Ned to see a slide that continues for another 7 days or so.

The more likely action will be a shallower drop and in less time. The discombobulated leader is matching the confused Stock Market. One or two days does not make a long-term scenario. BUT we are on schedule for a possible crash today. Maybe in a few days the pattern breaks badly. But for now i am happy to see it.

the FOREVER WAR is being realized by the world as IRAN is playing head games. I truth believe they will push TRUMP beyond a point of no return. IF that happens the lunatic will cause a world war THREE crisis.

[gdl]

Bitcoin and SpaceX . BOTH should show signs of an imminent reversal in this long Bull Run. The biggest entry into the stock market valuation wise is a DOG. Not that it can't develop into a great company, but timing is terrible. we do not have the will nor the technology yet to make this profitable. Bitcoin, Buffett's rat poison, will drop to a minimum of 30K. I suspect it drops much farther after. A TRUE resemblance of TULIP MANIA.

I need to see a steady drop here. down don and down for a full 12-day total. that would stretch the next down wave to be equal or greater. I am jumping the gun here. Let us see how far this drop takes us. TACO is losing it and we have a major problem once he does. It is coinciding with the Market instability.

[gdl]

Now it gets interesting. definitely a CORRECTION HERE. How steep and how long the current wave down.

A CRASH scenario would require a steep long third wave down BUT not anything that suggests it is worse than a normal correction.

I suspect it could reach 12 days down to finish the third wave. That would place it on July 2nd.
I also suspect that the fourth wave will be half the third wave and that places it for 6 days rebound till July 10th.

The last 12 days if it is a five-wave scenario is where Samone might bet a crash. MY 2-month assumption works well if there is a defined symmetry to the current move. July 13 thru July 28 will have the most violent steep drops.

My obsession in declaring a CRASH is admittedly self-serving. I want the TRUMP administration to be dead going forward. this is the ONLY way it can happen. It should assure the voter as OBTUSE as they are to vote against the current party.

*** The above is only a slim suggestion on what we will witness. More likely the moves are shallower and while the ending date might be right the final lows will only bring the end of a normal correction. ***

[gdl]

Correction. 6 days down 3 up and now 4 down so far. It should start getting steeper down days. Nasdaq dropping hardest followed by SPX and then DOW.

Will it last 2 months and will it be in the normal range for a correction. Probably. Week 3 ends Wednesday. Should still see 8 weeks.

Forever war will have so many ups and downs between now and then o suspect it falls apart before the deadline. TACO has everyone fuming over deal.

[gdl]

FOREVER WAR - It will be with us for a long time to come. Th Market is showing a dangerous pattern. The flip side of leadership. DOW, SP500, NASDAQ is now the order of strength. Indicates clear shift to defensive posture. Usually the end of a long bull run. This can go on for a long time, however. not an indicator of immediate danger.

There is NOTHING TRUMP can do, and he has tried, that would make his base cave. His distraction with IRAN only delays his plan to attack CUBA and GREENLAND. These are a given. he will and we will swallow and accept it.

Correction here is pretty obvious but how shallow or deep is not. Tomorrow ends the third week from the all-time highs. Most corrections last 2 or even 3 months. Most likely 2 months. Only thing out of this I am happy about is the exposure TRUMP gest daily to being a LOSER. A humiliation he can't ever accept. IRAN is making sure he can't even spew out any narrative that differs from the context of the DEAL. now that hurts him to no end.

[gdl]

FOREVER WAR. Not ONE DAY goes by from the DEAL SIGNING and it falls apart. Israel will NEVER listen to Trump on attacking Lebanon. Iran will use that as an excuse to stretch this no deal way beyond the 60-day deadline. The Straits is likely to be closed again OR Trump will have to cough up the 300 billion BEFORE they agree to extend the talks. that's MY guess. Extraordinary how weal TRUMP is. More extraordinary is his inability to even see everyone knows it. he keeps doing the same bluff. Embarrassing.

Marke is in a CORRECTION here. Doubt it is the start of a crash, but I will let external developments determine that. My guess is we have that 2 months drop regardless of a final CRASH or normal correction to start the next wave up. What a mess. I never thought i would see the day TRUMP sells out his country and his pride at the same time. 300 billion that he claims OTHERS will pay but miraculously not a single mention of where it comes from. He also is allowing the to officially own the STRAITS. I suspect they will start charging for the privilege of entering. Extraordinary reversal of fortune. IRAN is a BIG winner. Nothing ever would have come close to the huge gains their have today had TRUMP left them alone.

I would have never guessed a scenario like the one we have could ever play out in real life. TACO managed it. This WAR is truly forever. The opening of Straits is not likely to last more than days. Trump already wiped out 50% of his munitions on them. he can threaten all he wants but it is believable as Trump getting compassion and common sense. He is STUCK. Can't bomb the hell out of them and will likely have to deliver on the DEALS 14 points BEFORE the 60 days is up.

BTW the walk off by IRAN over talks and reopening the straits just made TRUMPS two-sided outbursts impossible to repeat. they are punishing TRUMP for his outbursts of bravado and lies. they want him to stick to agreement and humiliate him in public WITHOUT his ability to fight back. BRILLIANT. He has to stick to the script that makes him out to be a fool. Let us see if TRUMP starts the temper tantrum with IRAN. i suspect he shuts his mouth from here on out. IF HE CAN

[gdl]

OIL freely flowing and the rebound is still below the highs. We are in a correction and how long it lasts is usually 2 months form the peak. It could also be the start of a crash, but logic and economic conditions say otherwise. Market in desperate need of rate cuts despite the economic numbers doing very well. The fact that it will not happen this year will weigh on the market.

Bitcoin has the same very negative candlestick patterns. The drop today is going to soon tell us if it breaks down completely. How that happens without the rest of the market dropping is hard to understand. We did get in the largest nazi company valuation in the world as SPACEX zooms to infinity and beyond. While this drop is only 12 trading days old it feels like it is no more than a correction and possibly last the same duration, till end of July.

My only concern is that BITCOIN can break down easily from here. BUT it can also form a double bottom and rebound also. Everything in early stages. The DEAL is being attacked left and right. A real easy political play for the GOP. Hated the war and this is a way to p[rotect their own hide. Gutless to the core.

I am anxiously watching the reaction from the DEAL. it was already leaked and the reparations' part must be infuriating for EVERYONE. 300 billion is a lot of TACOS. I can ONLY assume TRUMP listened to his advisors (THIS TIME) and actually lowered his head and took it in the ass. His options were BOMB THE HELL out of them and create war crimes or send troops. I guess his thought process was to cut his shame all in one big blow as to let the war cause a constant shame. TACO is the Wall Steet label they gave him and it stuck.

[gdl]

Nasty reaction as nasty Walsh sets the TRUMP tone. no more transparency and a huge shakeup for the FED. He better tread lightly with TRUMP.
What a surprise, no rate cuts and a rate hike is now likely in 2026. The betrayal of Wall Street. deal with it, we have.

11 days into the drop from all-time highs on SPX. Not DOW. 6 down, 3 up, and so far 2 down.

We are in some sort of correction. likely just a normal drop before the next wave up BUT be prepared to change that view.

[gdl]

AS I EXPECTED. No talk of the future. ONLY one wiling to stay quiet so far. I am sure he will DEMAND the others do as well. Street can't be happy with that.
His total control is like TRUMPS. Both will know how to screw things up. I expect the next meeting JULY 27-28. Watch as he hold rates steady despite economic pressure and say nothing about it.

As a futile exercise I must state that we had 6 down days followed by 3 up days and this one is likely to be down. it is strings together we should have a minimum of 6 days, but it could be extended to 10 or even 12 days. Still likely ONLY a normal correction.

[gdl]

The leaked deal is so bad and humiliating even FOX NEWS is slamming it. 14-point deal. Reparations in the tune of 300 billion. Billions more from frozen Iranian assets. No deal on nuclear material. You have got to read the deal. Line after line it gets worse for TRUMP. Complete panic and capitulation. WOW TACO was so desperate his willingness to be humiliated on the world stage is unreal. I never thought he would cave and allow his EGO to be torn apart.

FRIDAY, they put the spin on it. Only Trump can manage to create the worse possible outcome. Reminds me of the decade long bankruptcy court appearances. Now that he can legally? steal money he made 5 billion in 9 months.

No matter how glaring this MONSTER i we love him. To deny support now is to accept you were made a fool.

[gdl]

DOW once again BIG WINNER and LEADS this market higher. it has for a while now. It always occurs in the last stage of a long bull run.
While i know we are in the last stage i don't know when it ends. Here is what i DO KNOW. Inflation will continue as TRUMP has just reintroduced huge tariffs again. The market has absorbed this inflation spike very well for now. So well that WALSH could NEVER EVER declare rate cuts till it collapses. The BOND market will soon SPIKE as WALSH refuses to RAISEV RATES. In this case TRUMP can stomp and scream and demand rate cuts but WLASH will be forced eventually, way too late, to raise rates.

I await Walshes testimony or non-testimony today and TRUMPS response. I would love to hear TRUMP rant and rage over Walsh.

[gdl]

This Market is HOT. Retail sales exploded in MAY. No sign of inflation taking a bite out of this economy. That and jobs numbers seals the deal. There is NO WAY the FED can LOWER RATES. Had this been any other FED CHAIR they would be talking about raising rates soon. There will be NO language referencing rate hikes.

In all likelihood there will not be rate cuts for YEARS, I expect rate hikes will be forced on Walsh way after he needed to. I find it astonishing this economy is that resilient. Inflation will be the talk on Wall Street for the rest of the year. As for a CRASH here, not likely until pressure builds in any of the inflationary ways.

But my opinion on the economy can be wrong and I will let the market correct my thoughts. The PE Ratio for the indices is likely to expand even further. The BUBBLE will expand. Maybe even get as high as a 40 PE on the SPX. A crazy number.

The 2 PM release might give us a clue how the street welcomes his news. It might already be leaked so the impact might not be strong.

[gdl]

6 don days, 3 so far up. Ai impressive move. Tomorrow might give us a clearer view. Walsh needs to get everyone in line and that will be hard to do given the fed governors were already split with Powell. Once thing is clear, the transcript will tell us how much in TRUMP CAMP he is. I don't even think he mentions INFLATION pressure once. He also will NOT mention the direction they plan on going for immediate future. Rational thinking must place a no rate change as the official message for now.

TODAY markets move on INSIDE INFORMATION since TRUMP came into his 2nd term. It will be the same. I suspect HEAVY betting early and the move should be telegraphed BEFORE 2 PM.

[gdl]

BITCOIN has many very negative candlestick patterns. This suggests a breakdown not a recovery. It should LEAD the rest of the market on direction. For now, it is within a range that can take either path. SPACEX valuation is frankly INSANE. The biggest new stock market company in history. How apropos if it happened to call the top of this stock market.

I await the DETAILS of the truce. It has only 3 things attached. Straits reopened, Blockade gone, and reparations by releasing billions from Iranian money held by TRUMP. He will deny this, but he will have to release it and soon or the deal is off. There will NEVER BE a real deal of any substance. It will take YEARS to revert back to the OBAMA deal.

Wall Street has moved on. TACO was predictable after all. he will attack CUBA soon. then Greenland becomes a real target.

IF we do see a double top, it could be either the continuation of a CRASH process or just a 2-month correction. The closing price from here on out should determine this. Any day that we close above the old highs means a correction is likely. if we can't reach the old highs things can deteriorate quickly into a crash with the same deadline.

I do not see a crash here. Odds are maybe 20% to date.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The leader recently, the DOW has decisively broken out but also has negative stochastics. The other indices have to follow behind soon.

This as Wall Street still wait for the actual deal that has been signed. Seems Trump is not willing to mention the wording of the deal. Watch the storm over the reports. He went to war just to pretend it never happened. they will never give him any agreement on nuclear arms now. Would be foolish.

[gdl]

Nearing a double top. I find the process a little suspect. Walsh has mentioned he wants total secrecy and no hint of future decisions. His logic is that they would be STUCK into an argument made many months back. Imagine bringing out the minutes of the decision and all it states is the actual decision with no explanation.

We are about to see if that holds. like TRUMP he has to muzzle the other Fed governors. I would love to see that happen. There is a decent number of people expecting a RATE CUT. I guess they believe this guy is in Trumps pocket. He is. AN actual rate cut here would cause the market to react NEGATIVELY knowing it is counter to standard policy and would cause the BOND MARKET to spike.

I need to see a breakout event soon or the double top is a possibility.

[gdl]

Odds of a rate cut is 30 percent which I find ridiculous. No mention of raising what’s for sure he would be fired. Seems news agencies are pretending Trump has a real plan for peace. No one criticizes his big bungle

[gdl]

TACO caved the deal is no deal. Absolutely nothing Open strait open blockade. Wow what a deal. Trump forgot to mention the billions he has to give back.

There will never be a deal if this lasts 60 days.

Trump folded and everyone knows it.

[gdl]

Market will break out above old highs. At least another 3 more months to go. Will be stockpiling my cash for a big bet when the actual CRASH is imminent.
The FED meeting is likely to stall this spike move but not to any damaging degree. Trump rolled back the 100 days, and everyone is happy, except Israel. they had their shot and TRUMP just put them in the doghouse. they played him. And he will not forget.

My excitement level dropped to zero. Now we add the other atrocities he will commit between now and the crash. Cuba soon. Maybe Greenland. 'He already has the Supreme Court managing the fix on voting so that will also go better than planned.

[gdl]

So called DEAL is a TRUCE and we start all over in 60 days. Difference is TRUMP will be hard pressed to start up the war since he lost so much of his stockpile.
But the DEAL is nothing more than a NET GAIN for IRAN. Release Billions being held and other than setting the conditions that were in place before trumps unprovoked attack we gain NADA. The pressure to GIVE IN and LOSE FACE won out it seems.

This STILL looks like wave 2 of 5 with 5 being the crash. 6 days down. So far 2 days up. Bitcoin in extremely negative position. Huge candlestick patterns pointing to more damage dead ahead. OIL and Bonds have a day of reconning on the 17th with Wlash testimony.

I still don't even think this truce holds. But Monday or Tuesday we will know. Israel no longer in trumps grace. they made a fool of him. Is this a normal correction?
I will let the market action tell me. if it is we have another 3 months to wait as a minimum for a possible crash.

SpaceX made the NAZI a trillionaire and the biggest flop in history. Valuations are absurd. It reminds me of Bitcoin but so far that has worked out spectacularly. I believe it will fall spectacularly as well.

In the meantime, I must keep my emotions in check and stop getting ahead of the situation. Hard for me. Trump will immediately attack CUBA if Iran is on hold.
He has been talking about GREENLAND and that should be right after CUBA. Reminds me of HITLER and his acquisition of nations. the world accepted it till he went too far. I wonder if we have such a situation. Is anything ever too far. CBS got green light for merger. Right on time for the funeral of 60 minutes. maybe they will do their own epitaph on Sunday.

[gdl]

If we are still in crash mode, the first wave down seems to be around 400 SPX points. If the next few days are a recovery wave 2 it should then proceed to a wave 3 down, achieving a minimum of 800 SPX point drop. Rebound should be shallow and week for wave 4. Wave 5 should see 1600 to 2600 SPX point drop.

Market popped on news but no carry over. Could his War is Over calls be another false alarm. The concessions TRUMP has to make will expose him for a fool to everyone. Even his MAGA fanatics. To reopen Stratt Trump has to open blockade, return billions held, with no guarantees on anything else. Like rolling back the same situation we had before the war. Will he do it. He is getting angry calls for his buddies. The humiliation, no matter how he spins it will be devastating. WILL HE SWALLOW THIS.

The signing over weekend will b real interesting. Will they be called back last minute. This is like a old fashion soup opera.

[gdl]

No One Has Any Idea What New Iran Deal Trump Is Talking About - From the New Republic
Trump claims US and Iran on verge of signing peace agreement, but Tehran says no final decision made - The Guardian

Seems Israel and all other nations have no clue what TRUMP is talking about. I guess we scratch our heads till the weekend. How many times had TRUMP pulled this? Weird that no one knows anything, but TRUMP claims a deal will be signed this weekend. Not by him. This seems so bizarre. To be continued. Let see how skeptical Wall Street is tomorrow.

[gdl]

External noise will complicate things. TACO caved as Wall Street expected. It is a 60-day deal BUT IRAN gest everything up front. Open Staits from both sides, frozen billions, and NO CONCESSIONS. I am guessing TRUMP is bored and need to start attacking CUBA and Greenland. I kid you not.

BUT a real settlement should help Wall Street ignore INFLATION over next few months. By Monday we see if the truce holds up. Trump ran out of easy options.

I don't think we recover from here just yet, but a normalized correction could happen, and I will lose my hope for a crash in JULY. Too early to tell.

Futures not moving much. Been down this path before. Monday will decide where we go from here.
TRUMP is likely to take heat for a deal that could have been reached before the star of this mess.

[gdl]

Supposedly TRUMP is signing a deal. get this no blockade for open straits. and caved in like returning billions held by Trump. In other words, he reset the clock to before he bombed the hell out of them. TACO does it again. it should be short lived.

I guess now TRUMP can attack CUBA and GREENLAND.

[gdl]

Big spike up now Trump from bombing the hell out of them to a deal. I do expect this to have no legs but I am surprised his word still gets a response. Stupid. Tomorrow watch the reversal.

[gdl]

Daily analysis since the market is still going MY WAY. 1 PM struggling to stay positive. matters not by close. Should see the final lows FRIDAY. Only (IF) we follow the 1929 path in such a precise way that defies logic. Today and tomorrow up or down it should be shallow moves. An attempted rally for FOUR TRADING DAYS. June 18th, a day after the FED rate announcement. I would assume the 17th end badly but that depends on what they already expect to hear. I suppose the best news is no action and no timeline to raise rates. That by itself MIGHT hold the market up on the 17th.

June 19 thru July 2 (10 days) should see another slip/slide before finding traction right before HOLIDAY CHEER. It has a right ring to it but obviously history doesn't NOT repeat the exact same way. But of course, the Pandemic did, a rare one in one hundred events.

From July 6 thru July 13 should be the last time the VIX holds up and the market has a mini rally. From there who knows how volatile it gets but a dramatic drop will commence from that point on till either 21st or a week after 28th. I am repeating myself but every day the path can change. Do nothing till then is my motto.

I am looking at a 40 to 55% drop at the lows of the biggest crash day (from recent highs). While frankly NOTHING shows this forecast yet, but it "FEELS" in sync with external developments where the only solution is a bad one.

[gdl]

On the MONTHLY candlestick patterns, I see two. One moderately bullish the other extremely so. That popped up recently. it should keep the correction, for now, in a correction mode, nothing more. It SHOULD also suggest a much stronger recovery from here implying this is after all just a correction. This will be tested over next 2 weeks.

Me, i still see a 2 month drop and last 2 weeks in CRASH MODE.

[gdl]

We have entered the eternal dream stage. Everything feels unreal but not able to affect us. OIL, BONDS, BICOIN are all in a holding pattern. The forever war is aptly labeled. Wall Street will stay in this fog till they get woken up. It is now obvious that both sides know the only reason TRUMP is sitting on his hands is because he has to. A depleted stockpile of this magnitude is so dangerous for our national security I suspect Military personnel will resign if he ignores the consequence. The magnitude of the strike on one small nation exemplifies a temper tantrum.

Notice that TRUMP has no plan other than to claim the talks are going well. He is forced to do nothing while every day he sees in the mirror the LOSER pasted on it.

Now to MARKET: It is in a strong belief that tariffs, OIL, Bond market will not derail this gray train. they are STILL outbidding their rivals on declaring the height of this stock price move by year end.

We are in day 7 of current slide. In 1929 I believe it lasted 8 days before a reprieve of 4 trading days. Those 4 days was not a typical rebound and retrace. More of a holding pattern with an upward bias. I will stop here and see if we come close to the same pattern.

The ability of the voter to stick to their own analysis devoid of real-life events and policies means this will happen again and again with more frequency.
There is no sudden realization like a light switch. ONLY bad times will be associated with the person in charge at the time. No connection between morality and sin. SHAME. EVEN a full-blown multi-decade economic collapse will only delay the next restart with another Trum figure at the helm. It is inevitable and repeatable.

TODAY I hope we slide in a controlled and slow fashion. Even an up day would be nice. I also need to see Friday as the last of the slide followed by a churning bias upward. It wil help me understand the timeline.

[gdl]

What happens when a Pandemic is treated like a minor insignificant concern, when a decade of TRUMP makes us comfortable in concluding he might be vindictive, cruel, immoral even unethical and lacks a conscience, but his heart is in the right place. the place where profits and greed shine. A place where the overwhelming concern for TRUMP is to give the ELITE the power and profits they deserve. It has worked for a decade. Unfortunately, they just never realized his true self, his true concerns. They actually believed he wears a mask and under it he plans on giving himself and his top inner circle profits and power like never seen before.

I think they miscalculated the man. His EGO and selfishness are too big and crowd's out anyone else trying to enjoy his success. ONLY when he is pushed to a corner will they finally realize his true intent. To rule the world by intimidation and cruel submission. he shares nothing. His Ends justifying a Means is a tad different that the GOP and Supreme Court. THEY unlike him don't mind being magnanimous in sharing the divided pie.

He is about to reveal his true intent. he needs a cowering obedient loyalist to then be able to show his true strength and power. he needs to demolish them and humiliate them showing his power in absolute. The ultimate sadist turns on his most loyal. This is happening NOW.

I will observe this with as much glee and delight as TRUMP himself does. His END is different than mine even though the MEANS is the same. I want to see a demonic power so satiated in power that he reveals his intent, to subjugate all, especially getting sadistic glee over punishing the most loyal. Me I want this to happen to also punish the evil they embraced but to also reveal their own punishment they intended on others. I am guilty as charged. I claim no moral ground over them. I want as TRUMP wants, to be able to expose the thin-skinned hypocrisy in human nature.

I am declaring this a CRASH scenario even though it is far from it. i am exhausted in waiting. I reveal my hand. I hate human nature.

[gdl]

Feeling good. Just day 6 from the ALL-TIME HIGHS. Things change quickly. But Wall Street needs to see that ONE DEATH ON US SOIL before they put out a white flag. Far from here. Just finished week ONE of the drop. Regardless of how this ends it is pretty much in line with an 8 week drop.

Correction/Crash - who knows.

What I do know is we should be slip/sliding for 7 more weeks. Trump continues to destroy all the REPUKS that dared to question his godlike edicts. Most have been replaced with new idolizers as the REPUK primaries are, once again, only die-hard TRUMP supporters.

Exact move of 1929 suggests two more slip/sliding days. BUT I can't continue to expect such accuracy can I,
I HOPE I got the TIMONG RIGHT!

[gdl]

*** Important FLAGGED post ***

LOOKING GREAT! If history repeats and i have the right chart from thousands to choose from, we have 2 more days before we bottom.
IF the desperation from TRUMP is reflected in the stock market BOTH have barely scratched the surface. TRUMP will now have only one option left.
Can anyone guess. Trump and then Israel will commit WAR CRIMES. First TRUMP so Israel has cover. Not going to send troops. Only special forces and a strategic BOMBING plan making everyone count. Attack on the citizens. I GUARANTEE IT!

Has to occur in next few weeks. maybe 4 or 5. Guestimate 7/11 or 12 WEEKEND. Most nations reserves will be depleted by then.

I make this as an easy claim. trump gave up on the voter and will just rely on fixing the vote in November or if that fails will SUSPEND the vote.

[gdl]

FUN TIMES. Drip, here we go. Correction is solidly started. 2 full months is the expectation. i even suppose by EVERYONE. Not of course a collapse.
OIL, Bitcoin, Bonds are all in a smooth correction zone. No break yet.

The 1929 chart superimposed on today's chart is downright spooky. Sept.3 top followed an 8-day slide. If similar we should see June 12 (Friday) as the current lows. Then we had a 4 day slightly upside move taking us to June 18. If that holds the announcement on the 17th will be processed and a delayed reaction the next day perhaps? Obviously, the exact days and timing will not exactly work. BUT the overall pattern seems very doable.

From June 19 thru July 3rd it should be sliding down with a low established there. The next 6 days or so will see a slight rebound. on JULY 13 or 14.

After July 14 we start the BIG SLIDE and end with a CRASH.

How i process this. By July 14th we should be in a solid correction mode and pressure for the downside building. Betting from then on for a maximum of 12 trading days should get you the bulk of the move. Hope the VIX is not too outrageous by then.
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I have done this exercise many times making speculative assumptions of a CRASH. this is no different.

[gdl]

As expected. Inflation dissected sees a tame move. Market should shrug this off thinking they have a control of future inflation. We will likely see a slide today but nothing to break the Bull.

A 2 month correction is normal. The last 2 to 3 weeks will give us a great clue if it sets up for a Crash.

The forever war Is heating up. Still early in this drama.

[gdl]

This reminds me of the announcement that a deadly Pandemic was discovered in CHINA. It transmits thru the air and is very deadly to anyone with immune deficiencies. The street shrugged. or should I say the 3% elite easily found excuses why it wasn't going to have similar results from the past.

I strongly believe this is exactly the same argument on inflation, oil, debt, Price over earnings. We find ways to keep the good times rolling.
Will TRUMP soon settle with IRAN and open the straits. Will inflation be a passing phase. Will the total dismantling of our republic affect the stock market.

In order to believe this is all going to work out you must go back to the first 5 weeks of the pandemic and make the same argumental over again. BUT this time it does work out. Do You Feel Lucky Punk!

[gdl]

No let up for this CORRECTION. CPI, Oil Inventories. OUCH!
I just need a steady recovery from any drops early. That tells me it is on pure hope and a prayer we stay the course with record breaking earnings and market highs by end of year. This is just a small diversion that will rectify itself once OIL and the STRAITS open. Like making self-fulfilled prophesy that a once in 100-year Pandemic will not follow the path it has in the past. Now that one cost me money initially. In fact two sizeable best and I was incredulous the Market ignored a clear path forward. A 100% guaranteed path. The third time was the charm, and I made good money on that crash.

TODAY we have Republicans. News Casters, heavily entrenched MAGA nuts abandoning TRUMP. Blood is in the waters. But the PUBLIC, an extremely OBTUSE ignorant majority is still clinging onto their trust, be it ever so thin. What I believe is that TRUMP already feels he lost them and will now go into preservation mode and if that fails take us all down with him. Now that is perhaps the EASIEST thing he can do. He has the pat on the back from the Supreme Court.

My crazy notion of extreme pessimism is here. Between now and November. My ultimate FEAR. Total annihilation. Let me give you a great example of what can happen tomorrow: Take Greenland for instance. he is talking about it again. IF he acts on it what happens. the GOP will pretend it is normal, our allies will break permanently, and then? Or he is forced to attack IRANS populace, infrastructure, and thousands will be killed. OR China decides NOW is the best time to take Taiwan. ALL are serious scenarios. ALL can start WW III.

LIKE I STATED A LONG TIME AGO. I believe the next CRASH will coincide with a beaten TRUMP and only thing left is his sadistic vindictive nature. You see I fear I might make a lot of money on the next CRASH but have the money vaporize before my eyes. HE IS TAHT DANGEROUS. Why my message never gets thru as my predicts do is something i will never understand.

For now we have a slip/slide with a few short rallies in between.

[gdl]

A perfect close. It managed to capture the full 5 wave drop intra-day. The correction is on schedule with a slight possible detour off a cliff.
Trump once again promising the IRAN peace plan is days away. Wai for it. I can guarantee you the STRAITS will remain closed. As in IRANS (ONLY) bargaining chip.

Trump the two faces monster that now seems so consolatory and nice to those he planned to OBLITERATE.

Drip drip. Let me be clear. It can easily JUST be a correction. I still make no predictions only possible scenarios. Mine always calls for a CRASH if there is even a slight possibility. I am impatient and also want to see the collapse here so I can stop worrying about our future. Once the worse is here it is all uphill after that.

In THREE DAYS we learn the truth about the Peace deal. DEAL -or- No Deal.

[gdl]

Current MAPED OUT SLIDE.

Walking thru the biggest crash in modern times. TILL TODAY. I have a 22-day low after the all-time highs based on 1929. That places the current move to see a lower low than the one we just saw at JULY SECOND. Spooky. Then a 6-day attempt at a decent rebound. This coincides with Friday July 10th.

From there we accelerate the drop till the last 4 days of the crash and that will be something to behold. JULY 13 on will be a great betting window. Ending around JULY 28th.

Everything is falling apart FAST. Too fast for the slow-witted greedy billionaires. the analysts and big Brokerage Firms are firm in their assessment that the end of year will see double digit returns from here. The market, over 60% is controlled by just the top 3% elite. Talk about a single mindset. Understand them and you can guess why a CRASH happens and it only happens on rare occasions that the greed and longevity of move make it an easy call. Not on timing, only on how stretched the bubble is.

I am getting really excited here. it means TRUMPS plans for November will fail f the CRASH already happened. BUT it also means the PUBLIC will be quick to assume a fix is here and will once again place BLAME on the very people that tried to stop the crash. That is for another day.

IS THIS THE FINAL END TO A TORTUTOUS REGIME. IF we DO NOT crash in JULY only October remains. But frankly the situation today is so perfect for a crash I have a hard time pushing it back once again.

[gdl]

Just hit the range for a 5 wave drop right here. It could slid further but not by much. Seems Wall Street is now anticipating a rate high soon. Trump will not let that happen.

Only one week in. Now we see how well the market hold up. There should be buyers soon. Always has been in recent past.

Not a singl mention of the forever war and forever closure of Strait.

Now this is fun. My impulse is to bet here. But it is likely going to see resistance on the downside once this wave finishes.