Alternative Path

[gdl]

CPI slightly higher and the thought of a 50-basis point cut is out the window. The non-event, fed cut, will be treated with a yawn. Before then we still have turbulence. Gee stubborn inflation. Now the question is how the market behaves leading up to November 5th. This current drop can get steeper but should end right after the fed announcement. That leaves a 6-week gap. Will it spike up forming new highs or a double top?

The debate proved one thing, it never mattered what Trumps does says or behaves. There are no changes to the voting result and the hard climb for Harris to win the electoral college means the GOP has to help her win. What are those odds? The closer the race the more cheating the GOP will do and make sure TRUMP wins. I have NO DOUBT.

Watch Wall Street shake rattle and roll come November 5th election.

[gdl]

Between NOW and September 18, the market should hit turbulence. CPI, PPI are big numbers this week. The decision and forward leaning speech will be another big moment to keep this fast out of control train on its tracks.

The polls still have TRUMP leafing slightly. I can imagine if the electoral college gets bogged down by 3 close decisions and they all are in solid red states. The GOP and TRUMP with the refusal by the Supreme Court to override them will result in a big mess November 5th. For supposed democracy's sake the Democrats will relent. The no backbone party. I can't wait for the results to come in, can you?

I know, no one thinks my warnings are real. no one can imagine a dictatorial ruling wiping out votes on flimsy calls of fraud. Perhaps trump will win them outright and the transition will be smooth. Except for trump announcement on his plans for his regime change. he has waited a long time to let his thoughts be known with no chance of legal reprisals. Like allowing a murderer to run the prisons and guards. Gonna be fun as all the GOP and supporters stay with him the whole time.

[gdl]

The street is not worried about a recession but ONLY ONE FOCUS. To keep the PACE of profits HIGH! Without disinflation they MUST count on many rate cuts.
A cycle that the HOPE can happen and soon. the data is mixed and does not call for multiple rate cuts today. That is what the street is seeing and why it is faltering here.

Today's article says just that:

"The recent mixed-to-weak U.S. economic data and sharp falls in equity markets have brought the so-called "Fed put" back into focus.
But the totality of recent economic data and the financial market backdrop makes it "hard to argue" for a rapid and forceful Fed responses seen in previous downturns. Markets, however, are currently pricing in 125 basis points of cuts through the end of the year. It would take a "significant further deterioration in economic data or financial stability" to justify the pace of policy easing currently priced into money markets, the analysts added."

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As for what "I" want out of Nov.5th it matters not. The last decade has set the stage and nothing i say or do will change the path. it is set in STONE! the detail on micromanaging this mess is also hard to decipher. I only give my projections based on my assumptions and my understanding of events. I am biased and so obviously I can be missing the whole picture. I sure hope so. i hope for a better future and one that doesn't implode on us. BUT I do so in the 11th hour with so much accumulated facts and clear trajectory it is like asking what will happen after the peace accord by Chamberlain was broken. I give that the same hope we have today. In that vein I can ONLY guess on the forward events and timeline for critical mass. Maximum entropy.

I must assume we are nearing maximum entropy based on the upcoming election and world events. Once started i never heard of it reversing before it hits the peak. A TRUMP win would accelerate that process, and a Trump loss is still not likely to stop it, only delay the inevitable. Which do I want? None of the above.

Being a realist, it seems only my most inner hopes can allow me to think this process will slow down. Truth be told that only relieves the current crisis not the eventual ending. We seem on schedule for a Trump win, perhaps a decent fast drop followed by a glorious peak conclusion. Not even sure we get that scare on November 5th, but the timeline is PERFECT for one. Fibonacci symmetry would easily accept such an outcome.

My timeline is from November 5th all the way till end of 2026 as the final peak before a very long winter descends on us. Wish i can see when the end occurs but i can't. Not yet anyway. Odds of Trump winning is great. That does set the stage for a quicker accelerated move and a higher one also. But we can still be enveloped in a huge bubble till end of 2026 just one that takes us to preposterous levels, The more preposterous the level the more complacent we get and the more excuses why it isn't bad. 1929 economists fell over each other declaring a new paradigm. How could they be so wrong? They saw what they wanted and what they wanted was a one sided view.

[joyceschoice]

If you are correct in your assessment of the future you continue to project, will you be happy or sad?

[gdl]

I SEE a PATTERN that I should have seen before. An obvious one.
From 9/1/22 to 7/3/23, a 10 month move, started the 13 weeks drop.
From 10/1/23 to 8/1/24 another 10-month wave. Is this current move another 13 week drop? That would mean a low on October 31?

It would also indicate a rally from November on and that implies a favorable assessment of the winner on November 5th. We all know Trump favors the wall street dynamics. Food for thought.

Is this a 13 week drop or a minor one allowing for another 2-month rally to cap the whole thing off.

In truth November 5th might be the catalyst for a big rally or the ending pattern of this current long run up. I will play it for a turning point and depending on the path leading into the election that alone should tell me how it reverses.

[gdl]

10-year note is NOT acting as if we have a long slide ahead of us. The peak at 4.85 in October of 2023 has seen a defined 3 wave drop. We are at the lows of this whole cycle, and it is now 3.7%. While the next few weeks can show accelerated slide, I suspect it is already near the lows and will in fact bottom and reverse back up soon.

I have been calling the transitory inflation pure BS and reiterated dozens of times that we should see a spike move back up and stagflation will be the mantra spoken by economists. It will be accelerated with TRUMPO victory as he will announce a massive tax break for the wealthy and tariffs for the rest of us.to absorb. he will also ship 10 million illegals despite the GOP insistence they stay. Inflation will come soon after and stagflation will result. If economists can set out to blueprint a model to create stagflation TRUMPS plan is ideal.

November 5th Trump will declare he won, even if he didn't. he will lay out a plan to stop funding Ukraine, Go after his turn coat Republicans that didn't stay loyal, scapegoat 10 million for our angst and demand they get deported, announce a 5 trillion tax cut, and declare war on Democrats and states that dared to try to put the law above his clear supreme court anointment of King for Life. I have looked at these 10 ways to Sunday and can't see the stock market NOT shocked by his speech. Now if he loses the damage would be even greater as he enlists all the power from the GOP to declare his win.

In either scenario the street will be on a medium to high shake up mode. A medium size quake or a big one. I personally think he will win those electoral college votes better than a 2% margin and so not have to use his MOB BOSS politburo to make sure it is sealed. But ya never know.

[gdl]

The average hourly wages continue to defy the experts as it once again rises faster than expected. The jobs report was below expectation, but it seems not bad enough to force the hand of the FED to lower by 50 basis points. This drop should last for 2 more trading days before any decent rebound is seen. I suspect no real movement till after the rate cut is announced and after the FED hints of possible more cuts to come.

[gdl]

slide seems to continue as the jobs data was not encouraging. Still expecting a really nice rebound lasting till (you know).
The polls have Harris leading by around 2 points but losing the electoral college. This is what i expected. In fact I am not even sure the swing states will show enough of a margin for winning to push the electoral college. The masses are arses Boggled the mind to think anyone can accept such a corrupt evil human being.
But they have and God knows how. I suspect most believe their own bigotry and hatred will be shown to be justified. The Hitler era all over again. this time in a country that knew no despots and is willing to give it a try.

What a world. What a mess. Do we just continue on this path with only positive outcomes? Is it even possible? have the laws of entropy been violated?

Can we last another 2 or more years on this trajectory especially when TRUMP takes control? Like Chamberlain going back to the Hitler table after he invades another 2 countries. Kind of pointless and predictable. that's where we are today.

[gdl]

AS EXPECTED! Service sector is still rising and hot hot hot. Even no manufacturing prices are continuing to go up up up.
There is NOTHING in that report except ADP report on weaker jobs that shows any danger of a recession.

The street is not happy but not exactly sad either. it still means the FED will deliver. Interesting that the 10 year note is just in a small corrective phase and a slow one at that. No sign of a soft economy. NOW if jobs truly get stopped cold we could be seeing STAGFLATION turn up. But that's for another time IMO.

The blowoff top hasn't started yet. Maybe it won't anytime soon.

[gdl]

Elon Musk uses AI fake picture of Nazi Harris and those responders on X used AI fake pictures of him as a Nazi.

Data coming out for August should show strength, not weakness in the economy and that ALONE might hold off the stock market rally till the FED announces a 50-basis point move lower.

GOP going on full offense to attack Democrats with fake preposterous reports and lining up restrictions to throw our votes and cause doubt in next election. The Supreme Court will also do a full press on capturing any case they deem helpful to the GOP cause and slow walk all others.

This war is Goliath against David and the outcome is what always happens in real life. Watch the economic data start pouring in and the street should ONLY be focused on weakness and dismiss all news on strengths. They NEED a 50-basis point drop and this month! ONLY a really strong economy going forward between now and then would reduce their chances.

[gdl]

We did have a clear 7 wave move up and this one has already overlapped the last wave on the downslide. I didn't see it. The move should still only be a correction followed by one hell of a rebound. In 2 weeks, the FED will cut rates. The consensus has moved from 100% 25 basis points to 50/50 that it goes 50 basis points. The street is telegraphing its message to the FED to lower by 50! It now seems more likely.

September 18 should easily start the steep move up to finish the drive on November 5th. Sems my warning on the tactics by the GOP is being announced by the press lately. They are changing rules and regulations restricting the vote and allowing counties to refuse certification. If the vote is indeed as close as expected all the swing states will have small margins on either side of the political party's advantage. The GOP will halt any state that goes Harris's way The courts will be involved and at least slow down the verdict for weeks. In the worst case the Supreme Court will hand the results to Trump by any means be it thru allowing the state governor to decide or allowing counties to disqualify enough votes to give trump the win. Thier agenda is crystal clear and corrupt to the core. The GOP and Supreme Court has a mandate to reverse the gains by non-whites and non-Christians. End justifies the means.

I find it disconcerting that my analysis of current situation takes so long for the public to accept. if it is obvious to me, it should be to everyone else. But every step of the way there are roadblocks to make the same conclusion based on pure optimistic pie-in-the-sky assumptions. Harris will LOSE. It only means the criminal efforts to do so will be enhanced. Make no mistake the survival of GOP depend on it. They have already made their platform to fit trumps agenda, and NOTHING will change that position. The fight for their own survival is already here. When one side plays dirty and recognizes it is for their very survival you can bet they will win IF the other side refuses to recognize the situation. So far that refusal is intact. The fact that the Supreme Court is an extension of Trump makes the outcome pretty easy to determine.
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The amount of press coverage reflects the same survival struggle that the GOP and Trump are going thru. The aligned press for the GOP/Trump agenda is getting more desperate in their attacks against the Democrats. It is crystal clear there is no longer a free independent press delivering the news as unbiased as they can. The owners of these news companies have taken sides and no longer hide their position nor slanting of news to such a degree it becomes fantasy. The war has included everyone, and sides are defined clearly. The silly simplistic depiction of Good vs. Evil in Steven Kings THE STAND is actually playing out today. No middle ground in this fight. You either accept the devil because it furthers your cause, or you deny him entry.

[gdl]

The strategy and plan is laid out for all of us. The November 5th debacle seems to be the odds-on favorite outcome. I warned well before the facts came in on their scheme. It is just logical they follow such a path. It is their last chance to do so. It will be an all out war by the Republicans.

https://www.the-express.com/news/politics/147444/jd-vance-project-2025-ties

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gop-swing-state-mayor-warns-trump-already-planning-to-foment-insurrection-if-he-loses/ar-AA1pUy4E?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=535aaffe816f4ad9b1c1cd1ccde95ae7&ei=82

[gdl]

Ride captain ride upon your mystery ship.

Were-callin-everyone-to-ride-along-to-another-shore-we-can-laugh-our-lives-away-and-be-free-once-more
But no one heard them callin', no one came at all
Cause they were too busy watchin' those old raindrops fall

Representing personal growth and discovery. Yup no one is listening. Greed hate, paranoia and of course scapegoating is stronger than ever.

[gdl]

Using candlestick patterns we have an interesting situation. Weekly stochastics on 3 dates are very bearish from July 15th thru July 29th. So far it produced a sideways move. On August 19th we got a very Bullish candlestick pattern. Does that mean the slide is already over and those 3 could only produce a sideways move? We will know next week in the shortened 4-day event. I would be VERY surprised if this current pattern stays shallow.

Everything is in place for the next surge higher. Expectation for rate cut(S), tame inflation, resilient consumer. And a TRUMP win regardless of the vote.

WHEN the crash, or steep drop, occurs it should take us to the 3700 area WITHOUT falling further and causing a long-term Bear cycle. Thats an astonishing 36% drop and still able to recover? Thats what I see currently. It might just be the last recovery we see before a dak winter ensues.

Can that really happen? if we are in a super cycle you bet. In fact it would be perfect for a startling drop and recovery not seen since the 1929 debacle. In that past we never recovered the economy fully till after the War. We can't rely on a war to help us only make it worse.

[gdl]

As expected, the DATA proves strength, not weakness in the economy. BUT the PCE was as expected. the FED has that excuse to lower rates, but I suspect in 3 months' time we will be forced to eat those promises. The overall data points to a STRONG ECONOMY yet everyone focuses on excuses to demand lower rates.

I had thought today and possibly Tuesday would show further drops in this correction. The shallower this current mini-wave correction the more likely a spike move up resumes till election time. Not a single economist sees the current data as ominous. A strong economy is all they see. Now add rate cuts and a TRUMP 5 trillion give-a-way for Yacht purchases with Tariffs for everyone else. INSANE. We already moved on with the Supreme Court above the law unethical behavior. We moved on to their clear MAGA bias going out of their way to prevent his court cases from seeing the light of day. They just gave a green light to corruption from the President on down to politicians al long as they follow the script correctly. Talk about loopholes, this is the size of the ozone hole in the north pole.

Debt, government kickbacks and corruption, extreme ideology to purge this country of the last 100 years of progressiveness. EVERYTHING is coming together. Jim Jordan, one of nine that sought a pre-emptive pardon for their role in sedition is leading the charge with the full force of the GOP. McCarthy era shock and far tactics to keep themselves in office. Suprem Court so radical they have to site 200-year-old ruling to justify it.

We have a completed coup, one supported by 50% of the population. Now the fun begins.

[gdl]

US stocks gain as stronger US GDP data cools recession fears, offsets Nvidia slide - TOP STORY TODAY!

No recession and rate cuts starting? Love it. Appease the politicians and the bankers. Wait till trump announces a 5 trillion tax break and tariffs and rounding up 10 million illegals. It HAS TO HAPPEN in his first speech declaring his presidency. Nothing will stop him now that he knows he can stay in office forever with no ramifications by the Suprem Court. They will eventually declare it unconstitutional occupation and then the GOP will laugh at them. To top it off we have 2 days later a decision by the FED and it is already a baked in one of more rate cuts regardless of the data. the street demands it. I especially await his declaration of using the CIA, FBI, DOJ to prosecute his opponents and disloyal individuals. Gonna be fun week.

[gdl]

Trying to break out already. Much quicker than I thought. The data is as i expected, PERFECT with NO sign of a recession. The need for multiple rate cuts is obvious. Has to do with future earnings expectations. the absurd valuations can only get more absurd with multiple rate cuts. I can't wait for the next January 6th event. If it is as close as they predict that would mean many red states will be contested by the Repuks. It also means they will REFUSE to certify. I expect many scenarios out of this but ONE stands out. The courts will quickly get attention of Supreme Court. They will do what is necessary for Trump to win. It would be the major long-lasting split by Democrats to trust the Supreme Court for honest law analysis. Their first agenda is to change the structure of the court. That is if the ever get a strong majority. The dishonesty by the REPUKS on the court is many and outrageous. They swore never to touch precedence cases. They destroyed them, each and every one. They displayed extreme loyalty to TRUMP and doubled down by making him untouchable.

I keep harping on November 5th as i mentioned before because it is that important. the final nail in the coffin of our Republic. We rush to make that happen with smiles and cheers. Trump has tapped into our own personal demons and allowed us to let them out with no guilt. Like Hitlers 12-year campaign to make everyone accept a JEW is not human. The very fact that so many entities are rallying for TRUMP even as he adds more evil intent is simply astonishing to me. I can understand his appeal to those that desire scapegoats to place blame on. I can't accept so many hedonistic selfish actions that resulted in rape, sedition, extortion and the public become more adamant about their choice.

When i bring up the facts i have yet in almost a decade of posting to get just ONE post discussing the facts. Instead, they sweep past reality and give one liner messages. How the human mind works and, in this case, faulters badly is a mystery to me.

[gdl]

I’m n a few days we got the lows followed by a nice move up. There should not even be another 6 day slide before November 5. That assumes this one ends by next Tuesday.

The Fed will cut early September and the street should be satisfied expecting yet another cut November 7. Imagine the chaos on the 5th and either a Trump acceptance speech promising 5 trillion tax break to the very wealth along with tariffs against China. Let’s not forget his promise for retribution and promise to help Putin If he loses he will declare the need for violence If the certification is suspended Trump will rant and rage and the GOP with Support from Supreme Court will make sure he gets pushed in.

So we have the election fireworks along with the expectation of another rate cut. I can only guess the data that comes out between now and then but favor my long standing assumption that inflation becomes impossible to tame.

There are so many external events around the 5th and of course the 3 month ending cycle it becomes a strong bet of a nasty fall.

[gdl]

Pattern developing like past. This should be a 6 day drop and today is day 3. September 1st should be the final low. It should be fairly shallow and setup for next leg up. The FED is telling the world they conquered inflation and is fluffing its feathers for all to see. Like the "transitory" announcement.

I can't wait for the November 5th election. Chaos is the only result. I GUARANTEE IT! Any crucial state the GOP will refuse certification and wait for the courts to step in. they WILL NOT! or worse they will ALLOW them to stop certification. We have a Supreme Court deciding cases on their own personal beliefs and even outwardly supporting a seditionist. And even ignoring the golden principle of being a judge, conflict of interest and bias.

There is no way we wake up on November 6th with a smooth election result. Trump will win with state disenfranchise laws and pure cheating.

The new America, home of the elite white nation with Christian values. I must laugh at their definition of values. DON'T Believe ME?

Remember what I have stated over and over again. November 6th will be CHAOS! Count on a major stumble on Wall Street.

[jxyzobrien]

very scary
so vote for
a convicted felon, rapist, pathological liar, and if he loses just put him in anyway
american coup began on jan6.
first attempt failed not sure if the next will

hope americans are not that insane

[gdl]

The master plan. Trump assures everyone he will win with certainty. How you ask. Seems all red states are planning on refusing to certify a Harris win. Not a hunch according to a news report. So even if Harris manages to squeeze some red states on a marginal win the state will refuse certification. A guaranteed win for Trump indeed. The GOP will shrug this off. The press is numbed to these things and will also shrug it off. The Supreme Court will shrug it off and refuse to get involved.

November 5 the fix is in. If the result is close as it is sure to be and Harris swings the electoral college vote in red states get way the state will refuse certification.

[gdl]

Two Months before election a large number of States are passing voter requirements and purging millions off the voter roll. Doing it legally since they passed laws in each state allowing this to happen. They made sure it NEVER gets challenged since the courts will NEVER stop them this close to the election. A coordinated effort and one they used many times before. The Supreme Court will obviously oblige. The so-called tight race in many states becomes a wider margin of victory for TRUMP. What TRUMP, the GOP, and 50 percent of this population is doing outwardly is trying to make sure that White America stays in power. The demographics are against them, so they have to cheat. The Supreme Court is all for their effort.

In Texas alone the governor is boasting that ONE MILLION will be thrown off the voter roll. This same state has a long record of keeping track of illegals in regard to crimes committed. It is one that they will NEVER discuss. 2.5 times more crimes committed by native born citizens.

[gdl]

Most of the data points are suggesting a really strong economy. Seems the Consumer Confidence reading shot up this month. just as i suggested. the summer blues will come out of season strong. But the FED will keep its word. Add a TRUMP victory to an already strong economy and we have party time. He will have his GOP in line with everything he proposes, including many illegal actions that the Supreme Court will be so slow to respond they basically give him the green light. Like his immunity.

Rate cuts Trump win, and immediate actions that make sure there is no recession and sets the stage for a glorious out of control inflation bout till it causes a collapse. This inflation need not hit double digits since we will never structurally hold till then. The double whammy. Tax cuts for the wealthy and tariffs for everyone else. I suspect

As for this current rally it should continue and do so strong. The street always views everything that they possibly can as positive. A strong economy with steady inflation below 3% hopefully is great news. The PCE price data will be the ONLY thing in next few weeks to push the market directionally.

[gdl]

Every day the data will be strong and PCE prices will hover around 3 percent. But the street will ignore all supply once we have a new trend rate cuts. How many? Everyone now says 2 this year alone. What can go wrong? When Trump wins he will transfer wealth like never before (the likes of which) lol.

Now tha The Supreme Court made it impossible to prosecute him ever once in office he will issue assassins during ng business meetings. That assumes him he will never be charged. If you don’t believe me look it up.

[gdl]

Here we go with the DATA. Durable goods rebounded DOUBLE what was expected. I expect many more data points to counter the argument we are in a recession. It will however still allow the FED to cut and cross their fingers it doesn't spark a 70's style run-a-way inflation. I still believe, unfortunately, that TRUMP will win the electoral college rather easily. he will infuse 5 TRILLION on tax cuts and the conservative GOP will do what they always do, say one thing and do another to appease their BOSS. It will skyrocket prices as greed for higher profits sets in.

The fact that the street actually favors TRUMP is like favoring an even bigger heroine fix to keep the drug addict functioning.

The chart of SP500 P/E and the Shiller chart shows a rather consistent pattern when the move is straight up. The pattern suggests that we have between 6 and 12 months for it to peak and fall off a cliff. A decent drop on November 5th will not be because of any tax cut proposal. It should be over Trumps flexing his ego and hubris with strong indication he will do anything and everything in his power to abolish aliens, go after his enemies, and make statements so outrageous even his die-hard supporters will cringe. It is NOT likely to be the start of the end but rather a shakeup earthquake, a prelude to the next big one. That should leave 6 to 9 months to accomplish his goal of free helicopter money aimed at the properties of the very wealthy.

This is so easy to predict. The man as usual telegraphs everything, like a known pandemic. Like that pandemic we have a great capacity to ignore the obvious.
The end is near simply because we are already broke, already morally corrupt, already fixated on disinflation saving us. We experimented with zero rates, and it finally pulled us out. The next debacle will include such a mountain of federal debt against GDP or any measure you choose. Add the bloated valuations on all asset classes and a refusal for inflation to drop. UGLY!

My promise to you. The next long term bear market will fall into a black hole and perhaps a generation in this mess before we have a slow recovery. Electing a flawed corrupt incompetent immoral unethical human after he gladly displayed his flaws to the world. That is a definition of a self-absorbed nation content on reaping unearned rewards on others suffering.

I had hoped against hope that Trump will not win. that seems a fading wish. Even if we losses the aftermath will be devastating as the defeat of evil usually requires great sacrifice. The final outcome might just be delayed. We witness the peak of corruption after November 5th or we fester in a brew that will eventually consume us. Take your pick. it sems illogical to assume the path that led us here will somehow reverse before it peaks. I do hope as always, I am wrong.

[gdl]

The DATA coming from the FED shows a NORMAL economic stance. New Home surged back to NORMAL levels. A recession when big ticket items are being bought. No not likely. I expect more of the same. The consumer has ABSORBED the inflation moves so far. I suspect when they do cut rates, we will see MORMAL activity right up to the cut and then spike moves after. Service sector on FIRE! Only accounts for over 2/3 of economic activity. I guess they missed that data point.

Stalling here for good reason. Still on upward trajectory as the FED has already promised rate cuts. Get this. the STREET expects next week to see a quarterly GDP number of 2.8%. WOW sure need to lower rates here. Like the discussion on why TRUMP is a good candidate. Seems the blinders are on so tight they missed the point about Rape, Sedition, Extortion. The same with Wall Street. So Bring It ON! Cut cut cut. Save the businesses from declaring less than double digit gains. INSANE!

[gdl]

Seems the current data is just not as convincing that the economy is sliding into a recession. Market is following the same pattern of recent past. We (could) be in a mild correction lasting 6 or 7 trading days. that means all of next week will be the correction. The length of the move should also equal the past one and that was a full 3 months putting it smack into Nov. 5th. So far picture-perfect path. My own theory has it that ONLY near major terminal moves does the market move in symmetry to recent past. that suggests there is a unified mindset near such ending points. Pavlov has tested us for years and each time we assumed a recession or earnings drop would occur we were surprised that it just never materialized. this is baked into the current mindset. Like assuming Inflation no longer is cyclical but has been conquered. the longer an observable path running in the same direction the harder it is to accept it's ending.

Having said all this, I still can't get a clue as to WHEN the end is coming. I can make assumptions but most of the time it fails to materialize. ONLY a rare, frenzied spike move that smacks against reality can i be more certain. The Pandemic was a great pound the table example. We all knew the cause and effect from ONE event. What will trigger the next debacle? No one observable entity. Cumulative perhaps? In such a case what will be the final event that pushes all to the same mistaken realization? I am still counting on November 5th to push us over. It might be a win by Harris and actions by the GOP and Trump. It might be a win by Trump and his insane king like proclamations. I don't know. I do know the time seems right. the past moves have produced an absurd expectation for double digit earnings every single year going forward.

[gdl]

The dye has been cast! It matters not going forward what the economic engine is saying. Sputter or rev up. The street already knows the FED HAS NO CHOICE but to cut. By 50 now it seems. The RALLY! I actually expect BETTER THAN NUMBERS going forward. I know that is not what ANYONE says but in the past 2 years they have declared this market dead so many times i lost count.

Now all we need is a continuation of this upside for just ONE MORE WEEK! It will persuade everyone that this bull market has decades to go. Yup that's what I read. We are close to a fast spike in P/E. That is price zooms higher as earnings tank. No not yet but the chart looks like an accelerated move is soon to start. the slower the move from here the more likely we have perhaps a year of good smooth sailing. A fast one is major alarm bells deafening the listener.

Stay tuned in. Slow or fast move up?

[gdl]

FED solidified the notion of a cut. Now the street will PUSH for 50 basis points. neve happy and always greedy for even more profits.
The deadline I presented now seems LOGICAL and even LIKELY.

That happens after the election is anyone's guess EXCEPT I am pretty sure we would be in a correction or stat one immediately after Nov.5
Hoping for a nice draw the line trajectory that we are already in. Maybe even a steeper angle upward.

Its sit back and enjoy betting always the dips till election. The dollar and yield on 10-year note is bumping against the long-term upside trajectory. Curious to see if it holds or breaks down. I suspect it holds.

[gdl]

The heads of economic research in banks, brokerage houses, hedge funds were jumping over each other to announce that the revised job growth would be much lower, as low as 1 million. the sky is falling! they (ALL) stated it would cause the stock market to FREAK OUT! A dire warning. Watch our below!

The NEWS came out at 10:32 and it was a loss of OVER 800K! WOW! The streets' reaction must be a huge drop. NOPE! They are cheering the news.
Seems any news that forces the FED to CUT CUT CUT is G-r-e-a-t.

Maybe I speak too soon? maybe the delayed reaction is going to be a crash? nah. What this news just did was guarantee rate cuts, as in many. The street will be satisified.

[gdl]

VIX and the speed of decline is one for the record books. It means greed and temptation is as strong as ever. Catch any decent Stock drop with piling in money.

Seems the FED was right all along to hold off rate cuts and NOW they are right again by cutting at a time when the economy is HUMMING along Seems a New Paradigm is here. No more inflation cycles, no more recessions, no more worrying about valuations and debt. Clearly the latter 2 have exceeded anyone's wildest imagination without a whimper.

This is the autopilot on switch. Sit back and relax.

[gdl]

ALL the FED governors are telegraphing the same message. September rate cut. No longer a question and almost 100 percent expect at least a 25-basis point cut.
A GUARANTEE! Will the market sell on the news? not likely and even if they do not for long and not deep either.

The GOP is not happy about that. Cutting rates right before an election. How can they declare run-away inflation. They will put the FED on notice that they are in cahoots with the Democrats. They had dropped their impeachment inquiry on Biden. must be because just now they discovered evidence that exonerates him. Nah, they now focus on their next fake inquiry. Seems they are going after the VP pick of Harris. He has favorable ties with China. This as TRUMPs trademarks, some 100, were never disclosed during his presidency. ONLY now is it being revealed. I can't wait for the debates. Harris is not one to miss an opportunity to show the stark hypocrisy. Yes i am crossing my fingers that she has a good shot of defeating trump. Yes my hope for underplaying my dire expectations have so far been dashed.

Hope springs eternal. Only event I am sure of is a massive crash debilitating us for decades. The question of when remains. The timeline has been shortened to less than 2 years from now and as fast as beginning before this year is out.

[gdl]

The drop took 3 weeks. the rebound so far is 9 days and likely to make a full recovery in the 15-day span or even sooner. That gives you a clue just how strong and frenzied the market is.

ANY data between now and September meeting is a moot point. Even a much higher reading on any inflation data. It will be ignored. IMO they have no choice but to lower rates even at 25 basis points. They don't want a panic right before elections.

Using prior chart patterns, it seems logic the next wave down will be the 3-month mark. In fact, it hardly ever hits or exceeds that 3-month mark without already being in a downward move. The last wave went from low to high from 4/19 to 7/16. This one started at the low on 8/5. I suspect we just might be hugging the timeline to November 5th to reach the next high and subsequent drop. Can it be any more perfect?

The perfect setup is a high around 11/5 which for now seems unlikely since the election is too close to call. Markets rarely like uncertainty. BUT as we approach this deadline, I will be watching for a spike frenzy move (low on my choices), or a slip/slide that already started before 9/11. A sharp spike move right before election would be a perfect setup for a crash event. Irrational exuberance dashed from the speech or from antics by Trump declaring a rigged election. You see for TRUMP it is do or die for him personally. he will have ONLY ONE CHANCE to get out of jail free. ONLY the Supreme Court stepping in declaring his trials illegal would save him. It would also likely cause a dramatic reversal in popularity.

I am an eternal optimist and always HOPE my assessments are wrong. It usually turns out to be right but in a more dire way. I still assume the GOP will do everything to disenfranchise voters as they are trying to do in Arizona. A test case in which the Supreme Court will step in and decide it. I am pretty sure they will do anything and everything to rig this election in favor of the GOP.

[gdl]

The FED and their accommodative ways assure us that requirements to create a safety net in bad times will NEVER HAPPEN!

Powell tells bank CEOs to work with Fed on increased capital proposal - report

When the original draft of the proposal, known as Basel III endgame, came out, it called for a 16% rise in capital requirements. It was developed by the Fed, the FDIC, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

However, in June, the Fed came back with a document listing potential revisions, including lowering the requirement boost to as little as 5%.
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I do believe this tells us what we need to know.

[gdl]

"Soft August jobs report could sway fed to deliver supersized rate cut in September".

The desperation by economist's brokerage, banks, analysts and everyone in Wall Street for rate cuts tells me they still don't believe the last 2 years. A streak that saw 3% GDP. The biggest longest earnings record. I smile when I heard these headlines. it sounds as if things are really bad. My my. The FED has disobeyed the financial community for 2 years and now they finally see hope of a massive cut. I think ONLY back to ZERO would be acceptable. WHY you ask? Let's be frank. Without disinflation we need a continued stream of lower rates to keep the party going past midflight.

If the FED were to actually cut by 50 basis points, I can guarantee the market would run for the hills. A cut like that signals major immediate problems ahead. No the FED will stick with their promise of a small rate cut. Keep them happy till after the election.

"Funds Start to Report Bumper Gains After Buying in Stock Rout" - Pavlov response. Buy the dips and keep your funds profits high. The snap back is proof of this. What can possibly go wrong? SP500 back above 29 P/E. Shiller over 36. And now rate cuts!!!!!! Glorious times.

[gdl]

VIX tumbles and completes largest 7-day volatility drop in history. I would say that's a major TELL. The long build up over historic valuations and the market staying the course for this long has analysts and brokerage houses on edge. They are quick to call out FIRE and blame the FED. The market data however has proven the FED correct. I suspect we will go from being scared to complete complacency. The VIX massive drop in 7 days seems to indicate the willingness to be complacent. 3 more months of reinforced data will get the Wall Street gurus declaring a new paradigm.

If this wasn't election year I would hedge my bet. It is and therefore relax and bet any dip.

[gdl]

Stocks will embark on a run of gains unseen in 30 years after the Fed cuts rates, Wells Fargo strategy chief says

Now you are talking the talk. Need more of this to shorten the timeline for a crash.

[gdl]

Recession forecasts crushed as economy defies doomsayers - HEADLINE NEWS

ONLY when the new paradigm is declared will Wall Street be ready for a major crash. What a period in time to be invested. Bubbles get created this way. The naysayers are still too prevalent, and we need major economists to declare this a new paradigm of profits and low rates.

The chart timeline suggests Nov. 5th will be a tad too long to hold this wave up. The absolute stretched timeline is October 25th as a top of some sort. Since the FED and PPT would NEVER allow a deep drop to occur BEFORE election night we could see a slide leading into November 5th and then a sharper response after.

This is my LATEST timeline narrowed down.

[gdl]

The verdict is in! Retail sales for July was BIG! CPI/PPI tame. The street is downright giddy over the FED lowering rates to complete this nirvana.
An economy that defies analysts every single month for 2 years now. The added boost of a rate cut, and an already healthy economy will guarantee earnings keep up, but it will also guarantee CPI will start spiking again. Only reason would be greed and not supply demand. Retailers will boost their profit margins sneaking in the added price tag. How do i know this? Human nature when we had such a long run on stocks and earnings. The rate cut is likely not going to be enough to add sales but rather keep them at the current rate. Some bigger ticket items might see a gain. The expectations for profits to stay strong baked into the stock prices.

BUT for now, till election day, we should easily see a 3-month wave up.

[gdl]

FED will repeat their mistake and cause INFLATION to spike once again. From 1969 till 1971, a 2-year period, the FED lowered rates from 9% to 3%. That spurred out of control inflation for rest of decade. The trend on rates has been a long one. From early 1980's till 2010, a 30-year downward trend where it ended at ZERO.

The basing process took over 5 years and it only went up to 2.5% before plunging right back to ZERO in 2022. Now we are at 5.3%. This implies a long cyclical inflation pattern has started unless you subscribe to the notion we have figured out how to suppress inflation going forward. This also suggest the next bout of inflation will surpass the 5.3% highs recently.

I believe we are about to witness the next upside trend to last till we crash. But not before we get a few rate cuts first. Imagine rates having to get as high as 20% with an economy that was humming along till then. This can NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN!

Trying to match the market moves with a theory on Fibonacci Grand Cycle is pretty hard and requires some glaring misses so I must abandon that model. I am also assuming we hit a vacuum where we eventually plunge below the 2200 SPX mark. If and when it does start to slide it should happen in an unprecedented manner in time and depth.

Looking at the smaller pattern I still see a 3-month ending pattern right at the November 5th event.

[gdl]

A MUCH EASIER CHART PATTERN. Yup, all we need is for today's highs to hold. breaking above 5415 is a big deal. It strongly implies we have another 3-month rally. The current drop was 13 days. The next move up should hit pretty close to 11/7/2024 as the next top. It implies we have yet another correction.

Now the correction should come in ONLY TWO possible varieties IMO. A quick 13–15-day slide with a minimum of 10 percent correction or a THREE MONTH drop and a 20 percent variety.

The street is coming out with a lot of bear market analysts on the prospect of short and long-term design. They cite the things I have such as valuation and need for disinflation to hold. The most bearish see a decade of losses but not a single one sees a major longer-term shift in market direction. I am the most bearish of them all. I see a Depression lasting decades if our political predicament doesn't destroy the market for good.

The LONGER this wave hold in the same channel as before the more likely 11/7 area is a spot to bet for a decent correction.

[gdl]

Big week leading up to FED decision. CPI, PPI, Retail Sales will be magnified. the street is as close to certain about the next rate cut as can be. The FED will not disappoint so close to an election. It should continue this rally but given the unusually high bearish candlestick patterns perhaps we get one more leg down.

[gdl]

Timewise it is possible we have already started the 3-month correction, and the drawdown could hit 4600 on SPX. The candlestick patterns on the weekly and monthly chart have multiple negative readings. That would however put the market lows near an election. Not logical if the PPT can keep the damage contained as they seem to have in the past till, we build enough pressure and then crash.

Is this happening now? Are we going to see a stall on the downside till after the election? Is there really pressure to drop here? The possibility of already seeing the highs till election is real. The ONLY way that scenario works is if the market shows strong support even in a downdraft.

I would be shocked to see anything major develop BEFORE the elections. A rally is possible till then but given the switch on bond yields and sentiment it might just be a slow rollover till post-election.

[gdl]

Buffett buying short term bonds like crazy divesting from stocks. Chart on 10 year note rather telling. It just had a shallow 3 wave drop and maintains its upside channel despite all the talk of rate cuts and slowing economy. IF the data is weak enough the FED will drop rates in September. that alone should spark another leg up on stocks. I will be watching to see if the bond market sees the same thing. It has a better track record than anything else IMO. China will spark their economy, and inflation should have 2 tailwinds behind it to start the next round of upside moves. BUT that shouldn't happen for months yet. The very shallow drawdown over many months on the 10-year note indicates that we are only in a corrective phase despite the massive consensus that the FED waited too long to cut rates.

[gdl]

Likely end to this drop even though there is a slew of bearish candlestick patterns on the daily weekly and monthly charts. Worst case scenario we hit 5000 on the SPX before this drop is done. In every single instance where the market has jitters, they anticipated a recession SOLELY on the fact that prices, rates have remained above the 2% target. Every time they have been wrong. Sometime in the future they would be right. I just don't see it here.

The hope stage for both the market and political front. Harris has a slight lead and will force TRUMP to debate on her terms. She is a great debater, so I don't expect her to lose any points there. If i too can hope and plan on a Harris win what can go wrong on November 5th? Easy. Trump loss will bring desperation out also knowing he will be prosecuted soon after. He will have nothing to lose but declare cheating, and demand the people protest with violence. He will never give up and only forceful removal by the courts will stop him. That is a hard road to follow given the extreme position the Supreme Court is in.

While i still believe TRUMP will win and immediately shake up the market his loss can still do the same thing. He is too volatile, too insane, too committed with everything to lose. I will STILL consider November 5th as a major reversal point one that causes deep drops but whether it starts a long-term winter is another matter.

[gdl]

Monthly 10 year note chart has NOT broken the upside trend since 2020. It might. The stock market and this chart should show us if we have more damage ahead.
they both are close to a bottom if this upside trend isn't stopped already. There should be a decisive breakdown soon if the trend has changed.

I personally think it has NOT! But logically a FED rate cut announcement should do just that so perhaps I am once again on the wrong side of logic. Maybe we see such a decisive move before the end of this week.

I do know that massive decade long bull runs never die this easily. Nor this quickly. Even if we have hit the final top, we should see counter moves that defy arguments of a bear market. Sticking to a minimum of early November for the final top as a possibility. If we do enter that time strong it could also mean the rally will last till 2025 or even 2026. A possibility that I see as less likely still.

[gdl]

Market has decided they convinced the FED to start cutting and do so sooner than planned and more often. Thier desperation is not because a recession is here but rather because earnings need to get yet another boost because the valuations are sky high. they need yet another fix. Will the FED oblige? I suspect so since they don't want to shake the market up right before elections.

Is todays move a convincing one? Don't know and there is still room to form a bottom here. It would be nice to see 8/6 as the start of a new wave up lasting around 3 months.

[gdl]

Current drop has the same pattern as the one 3 months ago but steeper. Timeframe for the last drop ended in 15-day streak. this is now day 13. Final lows should be in next 2 days or even today. The economic data has spooked everyone since they had hoped for rate cuts for over a year now. The data coming out going forward should not be showing a recession is here IMO. In fact, I actually expect a revamp of economic expansion with more debt and spending than anticipated.

On political front, Harris has the polls in her advantage and will force Trump to debate her on her terms. The debate will be one for the books. her biting remarks and sharp wit will be displayed. I expect she will only attack as a counter to his remarks, but it will be very effective. This makes the race much closer, and I have a glimmer of hope she prevails. Hope can be a dangerous thing. Assuming the previous scenario I laid out we should see a rally leading up to the debate and a nasty slide right after. It should be steeper and sharper than the current one.

Let's see if my complacency on current drop is unfounded. Will know this week.

[gdl]

ISM services and non-manufacturing data for JULY was strong, very strong as was prices. This data point has been ignored for now. With no real data point the rest of week i suspect we start the recovery and easily forget this drop. Once the next wave starts and holds strong, we can count on a 3-month rally from the start of the rebound. I suspect 8/6 or 8/7 starts the rebound. the street is concerned with a slump in the economy and the need for the FED to lower rates. Without a real slump in the economy, I suspect the FED has pushed itself in a corner and will lower rates anyway.

Before this summer started i stated there should be a summer blues and slowdown. It usually happens here. It has however not shown a dramatic deterioration and i suspect IF we stay health the street will surge on this news also assuming rate cuts will give it a double boost.

Thats my theory anyway.

[gdl]

Leading economist issues dire warning about the US economy. same guru that never saw a pandemic telegraphed from the last one? Same man that loves to blame the FED and has done so for a year despite the fact that the economy has surprised on the upside and the profit growth has never been better. I find it ludicrous that he can always see negative results despite a record-breaking streak of positive outcomes. Gee the P/E ratio is thru the roof, and he never questioned the logic of that. Mohamed El-Erian had no words on the Pandemic until it stated to crash the markets. What a great prognosticator.

They all are quacks ease to blame the FED as the market surges ever higher and then when it finally has a bad week they pop up and say I TOLD YOU SO!

Not a single mention of the absurd price to earnings or price to all other measures. No, they loved the economy during those bubble times and hedged by saying the FED should cut rates and do so a year earlier? how absurd.