Alternative Path

[gdl]

MARKET ANALYSIS - The current wave structure came within a few points of an overlap It has failed so far to do so. That reinstates the possibility that we will ONLY have a 3-wave upside move in this longer wave structure of 5 waves. Will know very soon.

Option 1 - Failed overlap. We drop to at least 4820 and it should result in a very strong rebound from there.
Option 2 - Continued push overlapping at 5547 plus. This will take the move to a minimum of 5600. After that unknown.

[gdl]

Market on glide pattern here. Complacency is what i want to see. Hope Trump doesn't spoil it yet. His polls are rather dramatic for his first 100 days and he has set a record for the largest drop of anyone in popularity. But this is just the beginning. He will try to offset tariffs, since it is an obsession of his, with tax cuts. I am curious how that goes with the House. Town Hall meeting the GOP are getting slaughtered, but we have short memories. Trump has to make sure the mid-terms are secured for him. Outright criminal acts will be the ONLY way and i is already being planned. Frankly with tariffs as his most immediate demand it seems unlikely, he holds back in JULY. The easy progression of Trumps thoughts and deeds is on auto pilot. Anyone can figure out his plan and just by accepting them on face value will give you a great advantage in planning the future. I would get out of all investments, find safe havens, hold cash as much as you can divest.

Gold, overseas accounts might help but this winter should be worldwide. NO ONE, i mean not a living soul, not the most diehard perma-bear sees the next 2 to 3 years as dire. To the contrary they ALL see a great move higher before we top. Like being advised of a Pandemic and revising your expectations upward. Ironically that mindset paid off as world governments threw money out the window to hold it all together. Debt has been described today as a non-issue. Governments can always add to their debt with no consequence.

As long as TRUMP remains in office the following is a guarantee:
1 - Increased chaos, dismantling of the Republic.
2 - Boredom and anxiety from trump as his Tariff plan backfire. he will need other avenues to stay sane such as a rift in all allies' cooperation and possible war.
3 - He will ignore the Courts soon and everyone just accepts this new reality.
4 - He will abandon his plan to keep the voter on his side and work towards total domination.

Within 12 months all the obvious result of isolationist policies will be seen. It would be so transparent that the GOP will openly defy him as their constituents force the issue. I suspect a CRASH would have happened already and that by itself determines the animosity and rift. TRUMP will be on his own. He will become extremely paranoid and isolated. His path will be extreme. ONLY his most corrupt immoral soldier will carry out his plans.

In my analysis I see NO WAY we can survive and thrive in 2025. We should see dramatic market moves. Realization will set in that our Republic is completely dissolved. I know everyone thinks my arguments all these years is based on a false irrational premise. Unfortunately, I have already proven my case. but not many want to verify. All you have to do is look backwards at just facts and behavior starting with one man and working thru the Republican Party. The most obvious facts when it bumps against a fixated mindset creates a fantasy solidified to prevent reality from shattering their perceptions.

The more erratic and obvious TRUMP reveals his soul the more entrenched we become refusing to accept our dire mistake. That is and has been our downfall thru history.

[gdl]

I figured out the TRUMP plan. Simple, simple minded but brilliant.

He Will Introduce Massive Income Tax Cuts when he announces the massive tariffs to offset the cost. It will never get passed but that matters not. Perception is all that is needed. I think however Wall Street will not take kindly to this. Afterall why would they want to reduce their wealth in order to keep the average joe from falling apart. Greed is the Wall Street WAY. Nice try. I am sure he is working out the kinks.

[gdl]

Most everyone is convinced we hit the bottom and are embarking on a new wave up. I still think we test 4820 on SPX before we start revving up the engine.
I say this because earnings is about over and stuff like this "Treasury Sec. Bessent does not know if Trump has spoken to Xi" keep popping up. No talks, no change in his status to tariff the world. Yup that actually might be the reason for the next drop. BUT the odds it breaks below as SLIM. Trump seems to NOW know when to talk and when to keep his mouth shut. I suspect if we do approach 4820 gain TRUMP will give one of his cryptic speeches.

In any even I am trying to decide if we get the dramatic 1987 style crash or a rolling one. This can be discussed if/when the time is right. For now, it is an open question. Rare, extremely rare would be a 20% drop in a few days. Depends on the setup leading into it.

It also seems like CBS executives made some deal with TRUMP and have toned their criticism of him to a whisper. I think the executive leaving 60 Minutes is a pattern and not the exception. I am reading articles that could actually have come from FOX NEWS.

I believe in the future there will be a documentary done on how TRUMP corrupted all aspects of our lives. BUT that will be in the not-too-distant future, say a decade from now.

I am rooting for a slow grind up and a VIX that gets back to low levels. That can ONLY happen if the market is steady or spiking upward. VIX for some reason accepts euphoric moods and actually drops while any drmaic drops it spikes. The nature of the beast. And of course our bias.

[gdl]

I am extremely encouraged that all chartists, economists, market analysts have concluded we are on a preordained path and this stock market is destined for much higher numbers in the next few years. MUCH HIGHER. Like declaring a week after the COVID News was announced that the CHARTS prove we just IGNORE this external event.

The ability to reason, alter one's mindset is impossible. Common Sense has no place in investing. In a sense that is True since most external hardship can have a beneficial longer-term reward. In this case nothing about a world trade war has ever proven to win out in the long run. In fact, the exact opposite is always true.

I marvel at our ability to dance on the decks of the Titanic Am I too early to make the CALL? Maybe. i do speed up events to a known conclusion way faster than it happens in real time. But this third rail subject already cause huge moves. Murdoch was so angry he blasted trump for his actions. It is that big of a deal. I MUST conclude even the most OBTUSE Market will realize immediately the full impact of his next trade war tirade.

Like not believing there is a bomb that can kill hundreds of thousands till it is dropped and we see the effect. In that 90 day span we will see that effect and ALL analysts would make the startling conclusion we are F'ed.

How this RALLY exceeds my expectation.

[gdl]

‘Cruelty Is The Point’: Chris Coons Reveals Republicans Want To Cut Meals On Wheels For The Needy

Trump rages at NYT over Ukraine peace terms, says it would bash any deal - The American leader launched a wave of criticism at Peter Baker from The New York Times. According to Trump, the journalist fulfilled an editor’s demand by writing an article that included calls for Ukraine to regain its territories and made other demands as well. "Peter Baker, the very biased and untalented writer for The Times, followed his Editor’s demands and wrote that Ukraine should get back territory, including, I suppose, Crimea, and other ridiculous requests, in order to stop the killing that is worse than anything since World War II," Trump wrote.

Ossoff: Trump’s recent actions ‘should chill us to the bone’ - Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) said that President Trump’s recent executive actions “should chill us to the bone” and claimed that his “authoritarian impulses” are a danger to American democracy. “I think it’s clear. We have never seen a president try to wield the federal government to crush his critics and political adversaries. That’s something new in American history, and it is, in my view, un-American. And it’s something that should chill us to the bone, no matter our politics, no matter our policy preferences,”

Republicans in the toughest swing districts become hard to find for people angry about Trump - Many days over the past two weeks, no one answered the phone at any of U.S. Rep. Scott Perry’s four offices.

Perry's team did not share details about the Republican congressman's public appearances until they were over. Even supporters who live in Perry's central Pennsylvania district could not remember the last time he hosted an in-person town hall.
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Just your typical weekend news. Seems now CBS is putting out stories that could be interchangeable with FOX. The transition is starling. Since TRUMP has won all his battles but ONE we will target then mercilessly. the PRESS is gone, they got the message, at least the big boys. The lawyers and law firms for the most part easily folded under Trump pressure. Anyone or institute criticizing trump has basically already been silenced. He now jails Judges. The ONLY institution that was extremely supportive of trumps tyranny is ironically the only left to defend democracy. The Supreme Court thought they could use Trump to make sweeping changes placing us back to the 50's. They were wrong. But they were the ONLY ones that could have prevented his reelection and instead made sure he would run. NOW they fear him. TOO LATE! He has already ignored your silly rulings and within 6 months not many new articles would even mention any disturbing reversals against Trump policy simply because everyone will IFNORE THIS BRANCH.

[gdl]

Trump keeps contradicting himself on tariffs, making a fragile world economy nervous - Headline

Thats the way you do it. Rant, rave, rail and then give the opposite position. But I know with certainty what he will do. The EDGE in not only making a decent timing call but a fast sharp move almost immediately after the 90-day deadline.

It ALSO looks like Wall Street will revert back to its old ways of SHOW ME THE PROOF. Like a known Pandemic and known outcome they waited and waited.
This Pandemic's one death will occur on July 8th. More than likely the man will place his announcement on Independence Day because he sees this as our independence. On that FRIDAY. The great thing about that particular date is it lands on Friday, and the 90-day limit is next Tuesday. Not much of a difference.

Best bet is for a deep drop on or before JULY 11. Purely speculative on my part. I t does have the right RING to it. I think TRUMP purposely set up July 4th as the tell all date. A true Confederate Patriot from NY.

[gdl]

While it is not probable, we get a 4th and 5th wave here it is possible. We should see a week of drawdown but not steep in order for the move to be five waves.
If so it should take at most 10 to 15 days to complete and it should not go much beyond 5700 - 5750 area. If this is only 3 waves we should start the slide sometime next week.

In any event earning season is winding down. The street would need something to keep the market in a hopeful state. Trump is getting more erratic and more dangerous. I do not think he can contain himself and either the street shuts him off completely or they stay on high alert with wild swings. In all cases i do not see a calm enough market to allow for anything approaching a strong move.

I will hope for a time delayed realization of the destructive path we are going into.

[gdl]

Big Borther is watching your every move!

A major supporter of Donald Trump's tariffs, who was appointed this year as executive director of the Office of Trade Relations at Customs and Border Protection, has been banished after a picture of him attending the wedding of one the president's critics was circulated this week.

According to a report from the Washington Post, George E. Bogden was reportedly pink-slipped because he attended the wedding of former Trump administration official Miles Taylor who wrote the notorious 2018 New York Times opinion piece critical of Trump under the name "Anonymous."

[gdl]

OVERLAP! The 3 waves down is now only ONE! This means we can easily see a completion of this current move at end of JUNE/Early JULY.

It also means tariffs, Jailing Judges, defying a 9 to 0 Supreme Court ruling is business as usual. the immune Wall Street greed is alive and well. I am simply amazed once again how reality can be dismissed so easily. ONLY current earnings and don't look to the future and we will be alright.

I doubted once again the heartlessness and stupidity of the investor and voter. May they all stay that way during the long winter to come.

[gdl]

TRUMP just JAILED a Judge. message Loud and Clear! I LOVE IT! He is focusing on all courts that rule against him. He will win. The Supreme Court will make sure of it. They do not want to go down as the Branch that gave trump illegal powers to destroy our constitution. Instead, they will help him do it together.

the speed at which TRUMP will regain full control of this country is astonishing. h will even ignore his base and those he surrounds himself will break the law just as easily. The gutless immoral STOCK MARKET will make a transition and accept all atrocities but ONE! Tariffs. They need the moron to back down. His life does depend on it but that will not sway TRUMP. he is insane and always was.

There is NO SOLUTION other than complete collapse of our system. It will happen in lightning speed. On a DAILY basis we see his push for total ruthless control and not a sliver of light on the other side. they will pound their fists and get led to JAIL!

TRUMP IS OFFICIALLY OUT OF CONTROL. If you think he was before watch and see the difference as stark as night and day! Pow, Zap, Boom, Bam.

[gdl]

TRUMP has already gone nuclear. Ignoring the public, GOP, billionaires, and the courts. My moment of Pure Joy would be the announcement by FOX NEWS that Trump is a corrupt, immoral, unconstitutional tyrant. Tariffs hit their pocketbook the most as a world gets PLUNGED into a depression. China will replace us as the world leader and trading partner.

Today the PPT tries to hold off a deep drop and eases our way down. Don't need much help today as earnings keeps the HOPE alive.

Once that dim witted king realized, as he just has, that he will not get his way thru democratic means, thru fixes by the GOP, thru cheating and the courts and companies called his bluff he will go NUCLEAR. His DOJ will have a weening out as some leave office fearing their careers will be over following trump. Most will stay. he will replace all legally or not and the GOP will shut themselves in a closet.

I am interested in seeing those Town Hall Meeting implode into violence. So far just a murmur of discontent.

I will be betting for a CRASH the moment the street wakes up -or- Trump makes his 90-day announcement. I suspect it happens right after that announcement. Equivalent to the day we found out a person died on our soil by Covid. Kind of stupid but that is our human trait passed on thru millions of genetic mutations. I hope we live long enough to correct that oversight.

BTW this rally should be OVER! The GRRED will replace the rational assumptions for future devastation for now. That should hold the 4820 on SPX secure, assuming we even get to test it again.

[gdl]

Got good earnings and a hope that Trump isn't the man they saw for the last decade. Now how likely is that. China flat out denies there are any talks. trump insists there are. The obtuse greedy investor must eventually make up its mind. Like a Pandemic ONLY after it kills here on US soil did we react.

This is the third wave up and it will OVERLAP the first wave soon. I do believe we stall right here and start down again. In any event all this does is provide a timeline for the crash. It will be when the 90 days are about up and TRUMP makes his proclamation.

Not even the Stooges on the Supermen Court will save him with the barrage of court spanking. He is ignoring most of their orders but that seems irrelevant. While the courts also become irrelevant the dense slow-witted voter is POUNDED on a daily basis a reminder of their pick. Truth be told the voter is now irrelevant as Trump does not care. His goal is to become a true dictator. he no longer cares about the vote nor about the GOP and his rich pals.

He is his own man and the world is about to find out what that means.

I am so glad the market refuses to accept reality. it seals the event as a CRASH.

[gdl]

Seems Trump and his mouth is going to test my belief he can’t keep it shut. Fined by EU apple and meta. Trump has something to say about that. Let’s see if the market can ignore his attack on the EU bb

Like his followers they have a great ability to ignore obvious consequences and hope he is bluffing. Yup he is a man that has a Teflon ability to stop any thoughts contrary to their original assessment of his market prowess. The man is a genius.

Normal meandering till July is my best call. 4820 or bust.

[gdl]

I am always surprised when logic common sense and greed come into play. Greed always wins. The market has made up its mind. Stay shut out to the train wreck Trump course of action.

This should hold till Trump actually spells out in detail his next step. Does he have the strength to keep his mouth shut. If so we meander and most likely still test 4820. During earnings seasons it should easily hold. Money in the bank is a great motivator especially when you can twist the immediate future to fit your best scenario.

Trump the negotiator. The art of the deal. He has already abandoned his billionaires his voting base and the GOP. Why I am the only one seeing this is insane. I still get the same arguments why Trump was better than Biden.

[gdl]

Would LOVE to be listening in on the retailers and trump discussing Tariffs. They will nod their heads and try to POLITELY disagree. They know if he gets angry, he will punish their company badly. This has always been the characteristics of trump, and we just accepted it like we accept his criminal behavior.

He is at the point where nothing will get thru. He will force his GOP puppets to cut the strings and that my friend will ONLY happen AFTER he does maximum damage.

Tariffs are here to stay. PERIOD! The street sees another Pandemic and thinks they can beat it this time. The street, the voter, the decade of trump is so disconnected from our ability to reason so i MUST conclude as a species we will self-annihilate or come close. We are WAY beyond Tariffs as the ultimate demise of our economy. Just as he had a massive temper tantrum with China, he will do the same with all nations and become more paranoid, more ISOLATED. he will break from our allies form a new one with despots and the gutless GOP will nod their heads and stop seeing their constituents.

The TIME IS HERE! If he can't contain himself, as is apparent there will be a mighty struggle for the Market to stay afloat till the 90-day period is up.

I have a PERFECT nightmare scenario on how this plays out. I believe the 90 day ends early July. I would bet anything that on JULY 4th, he announces his great plan for this country to be released from bondage by a massive tariff on the world. This PERFECT scenario requires some rather extremely doubtful process to unfold. Trump will have to PRETEND to be negotiating, give some tariff relief for say the car industry, etc... BUT he will have to KEEP HIS MOUTH SHUT on his all-out offensive.

I debate whether that is possible. he is getting more unstable daily. BUT like a Pandemic the NEWS will be there, and it is up to US to determine WHEN the street collapses their hopes and realizes there is no future.

As for CURRENT MOVE -forgetaboutit. We either meander testing 4820 and hold or just slip slide down and down and down. Maybe no crash at all and just continued drops moth after month.

CRYSTAL CLARITY - We know the outcome. I know the outcome. It is HERE and NOW. No more waiting. By Independance Day we should see the fireworks in full display!

[gdl]

THANK GOD FOR EARNING SEASON. That should give the excuse they need to pretend trump will wake up one morning in a good mood and declare his nightmare is over and play the "normal" leader. If that sounds preposterous just remember when COVID hit. the preposterous went merrily along till ONE DEATYH on our soil. Too bad they couldn't pretend it never happened.

I am an impatient person, and this is driving me nuts. As well as I KNOW Trump, I do not know how investors can put reality to the side but obviously we do it all the time. If everyone SAW what I SEE we would have CRASHED already. I can't get in the head of the masses that delude themselves so well.

I must trust past experiences like COVID. We should make excuses till reality literally bites us. That should be JULY or if TRUMP implodes with Powell or anything that would destabilize the financial market. In that I am also clueless.

In the near future between TRUMP Tariffs and Earnings the roller coaster tide should hold us ABOVE 4820. Crossing my fingers. I need to see the market go into a semi-stable moment (lower VIX).

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I also have a range for the crash bottom. 2600 to 3000. on SPX. It should be a 4 day event from start of slide. Next drop should be the mother of all drops. Not in terms of percentage but numbers.

[gdl]

TRUMP immediately, not 24 hours later, reneged on any supposed deal with CHINA. China will squeeze Trump dry. The word of his underlings are now dead to the press. Twice this was the case and twice they took the bait.

ONLY 2 scenarios left
1 - This market tests 4820 an manages to hold for a while, say till July.
2 - It tests 4820 and crashes.

There is a 3rd but my odds are lower than 5% it can ever happen. That would mean for once in trumps life he would be defeated, deflate, and seen as weak. I am talking of course about Tariffs. China on the other hand will WANT this to play out and destroy TRUMP and our economy at the same time. Obtuse obstinate TRUMP is his own man, an isolated one and getting more and more so. He will no longer have a temper tantrum but rather a nuclear explosion.

My timeline for a CRASH is either NOW, after we test 4820, or in JULY. Like the Pandemic, a known result, a known science, a known path Wall Street once again manages to persuade itself with such delusional reasoning that I was beside myself those FIVE WEEKS before we dropped hard. This one is more immediate. The outcome is known, the speed of the devastation also known and JULY we start the litany of company forecasts so bad and so numerous a CRASH is not only possible but almost assured.

You see I KNOW THE MAN! He would NEVER CHANGE CHOURSE as it was proven with his bankruptcies. He has the same delusional god persona as HITLER did.

Buckle up. First stop 4820. Personally, I believe the market hangs on and holds barely the 4820 line but it is just my opinion. No real energy behind that.
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The other news was a supposed apology to Powell but that also is not the case. Trump plans on CALLING Powell. JUNE 17/18 is the next flare up by TRUMP. He will rant/rave but not sure if he actually fires him.

This GOD realizes he created humans that can abandon him and move on to another idol.

[gdl]

This rally is directly related to trump being hammered over his KINGDOM edicts. The Courts, Public Opinion, GOP, Billionaires and there is now a sliver of sunshine regarding firms refusing to bend. Trump is now defeated and in a depressive mood not seen ever. He sees himself as a loser and weak.

The stage is NOW set for the hope/dream stage of the final push upward. The timing is simple. When Trump decides to ignore everyone and release his building frustration. I suspect the perfect outlet would be the 90-day deadline. In a normal situation i would BANK on that as the new tariff mandate.

Can TRUMP hold out till then. The closer we get to 6/8 without any change in status on tariffs the more likely I dip my foot in the option play. I believe the man can't change and will lash out insisting his greatness goes beyond anyone's advice. His anger will keep building. Thats my theory and long history with the man.

The clock is ticking.....

[gdl]

Top '60 Minutes' producer quits, saying he can no longer run the show as he has in the past
Story by DAVID BAUDER

NEW YORK (AP) — The top producer at “60 Minutes” said Tuesday that he is quitting the show, saying that it has become clear that he would no longer be able to run it as he has in the past.

In a memo to staff members, Bill Owens said that he would not be able to make independent decisions based on what is right for the audience.

“Having defended this show — and what we stand for — from every angle, over time and with everything I could, I am stepping aside so the show can move forward,” he wrote in the memo, first reported by The New York Times.

The show has been under attack from President Donald Trump, who sued the network from $20 billion for the way it edited its interview with Kamala Harris last fall. CBS corporate leaders have been discussing a potential settlement with Trump, which Owens and others at the show have resisted.

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'Reconsider': Tom Cotton begs Trump for disaster relief — after opposing it for Dem states

[gdl]

The INSANE bored King has been told placing such huge tariffs on China will hurt us. He will waffle for a time and then place them right back simply because he can't help himself. The man is truly INSANE and as his insanity increases his loyal subjects will swear allegiance even more.

Place your bets. How long can his tongue be silenced with talks of rational trade. He will fire Powell and replace the FOMC members as easily as he has defied the constitution so far. He is truly a madman determined to prove to the world he is a mighty leader. He needs nations to cower in front of him. he needs more and more and yet NOTHING will satiate his thirst.

In this stage of his insanity, it is difficult to even project 3 months out. I do know it will get so bizarre no one will be able to discuss him without babbling nonsense. he is fast realizing he can't obtain the power he wants and needs. There MIGHT be a lull in his actions thinking he is defeated but his EGO is just too large to be ignored along with his contract with the DEVIL.

California Man Ordered to Leave the U.S. 'Immediately' Despite Providing Birth Certificate: 'I'm Not Trying to Be One of the Government's Mistakes'

Ship em out, He has Hispanic background and that is good enough to get him OUT OF HERE!

[gdl]

I forgot about earning season. Strange to miss it. Seems to be a huge positive. Can the market focus exclusively on current earnings till next quarterly report. that is the million-dollar question. THIS current move needs to advance beyond 5515 to see any hope we have reached a bottom. Like I have been saying all along, the more TRUMP gest in terms of power and control the more he wants. An ever-increased thirst for power beyond the possible. He is setting up for an orgasmic release and that should result in a world crisis. In one to three months. He has no ability to wait it out for a better opportunity. He has no ability to placate his base before springing on them introspective fear. anger and shame. The DAY he realizes he has a finite ruling period is the DAY he launches a world destructive plan.

I never worry about economic cycles, even mega depressions. I worry about the end of it all. His current position seems to assure us we will have that OK Corral moment. The shootout. It also seems there will be no fair fight, and the winner will be Trump regardless of the situation.

I know everyone thinks I am over the top and have been for decades. Personally, I am actually very calm since in my estimation the end is already decided. I keep getting startled at the speed at which the end will occur. I am an impatient person, and this moment is traveling at light speed.

[gdl]

No let up to Trumps cruel policies, trade wars, defying the courts, and destroying all safety nets for health. The MARKET needs a period when Trump is placed in a time-out corner with no temper tantrums. He speaks in 5th grade terms, refuses to grasp concepts, and plows ahead with the complete dismantling of our republic with small pushbacks.

This market unfortunately seems destined to continue to drop in a long cascading fashion. I see NOTHING on the horizon that would allow them to catch a breath.
Maybe they just accept his crazy behavior and decide the new normal and hope he doesn't carry out his policies. I am trying to see a window where we could have a huge relief rally. So far the man can't shut up with his whining and doubling down on his obsessions.

I will be surprised if we get 2 days consecutively with strong moves up. The Major Technical support is 4820 on SPX. Everyone sees it. Will that BY ITSELF be the catalyst for a big rebound?

[gdl]

Wall Street Update: Stocks drop after Trump calls Fed Chair Powell 'a loser'

I can't get how easy it is to focus in on Trumps behavior (BEFORE) it occurs. Called predictive behavior. This is very worrying to me because i need to see a huge spike move and hopefully after we HOLD at 4820 in the SPX chart. We should know soon enough if that happens.

I can EASILY predict his response to Powell as i have not a month or so ago. I can easily see the end game with worldwide tariffs regardless of how much other nations bend to his will. he is after all a sadist.

I will probably bet the rebound if we hit close to 4820 on SPX and IF we hold there without dropping below. Since i know TRUMP so well any rebound will be relatively short lived. it MIGHT be a whopper spike up on rumors, but we do have a deadline for the 90-day timeframe.

I will (TRY) to time the moves going forward but I do not have a great track record for that.

4820 or BUST! If I can capture the first move at 4820 I should be able to catch the second move which should have a surprise spike move and it should carry anywhere from the next 3 days after 4820 to even a 10 day move straight up. ALL DEPENDS ON 4820 holding.

[gdl]

Investing.com -- If tariffs weren’t enough for markets to contend with, President Donald Trump has thrown another major worry into the market with the calling of the head of Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell.

Trump has been calling on Powell to lower interest rates and last week called for his termination following hawkish comments from the Fed Chairman.

“Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” Trump stated last Thursday after calling him “too late” to cut rates.

Trump upped the ante on Monday, calling on Powell to initiate “preemptive cuts” or risk a slowing economy.
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I called this way back as a slam dunk outcome. TRUMP is predictable and unstable. He can't get out of his own way. the market will have to eventually IGNORE him or continue to DROP without any relief. Trump certainly will not change course. That is the ONLY given. A decade in bankruptcy court proved my point. ONLY the die-hard hypnotized follower can continue to find ways to accept his criminal behavior.

[gdl]

Judge orders State Department to provide passports to transgender people despite Trump order

There goes that Judges future. Expect jail time or just executive order extermination. It has already come to that. Defy TRUMP and the backlash is everlasting.
Even the Supreme Court will be spanked soon enough. I even expect removal as the next step.

Trump is following his two most cherished idols, Hitler and Putin.

[gdl]

DERANGED message from Trump on EASTER

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/deranged-donald-trump-posts-mad-184-word-easter-message-taking-aim-at-all-his-enemies/ar-AA1DgJKU

Like i stated before the man is an open book or should i say a sealed contract with the DEVIL. I mentioned his inability to accept his kingdom with powers and control over the world like no other president before him NOT SATISFIED just as Hitler wasn't. They are of ONE mind and ONE outcome.

Trump has already defied the Supreme Court with no real backlash. He basically has intimidated the world, and the world hasn't figured out how to respond. This is why I don't feel comfortable making the decision to wait for the 90-day period to be up. He needs to constantly and ever more frequently display his powers and test the world for any repercussions. He has one primary edict and that is make the world bend to his wishes and the best way he knows how is though Tariffs.

Will he break his own promise with a 90-day grace period or will he do a PUTIN. The market will not get any traction without that promise. It will likely be short lived but a money-making move both ways. FAST sharp trajectories both ways. Catching them will be very profitable. The current market has to retest the 4840 area. If it holds, we can expect a sharp and short spike move catching most by surprise. It should happen within a 2-to-4-week period. It should END on Trumps announcement for full blown tariffs. I truly believe he has delayed this ONLY to placate the billionaires that wish to time thier exit from the stock market.

[gdl]

Trump Says Fed Chair Powell’s Termination ‘Cannot Come Fast Enough’

My slam-dunk expectation is about to be realized. Wall Street can't get a break as INFLATION fears keep popping up. Trump can't keep his mouth shut on his tariff plans long enough for the market to pretend everything is great.

Trump, one man, is trying to prove that he alone can change the course of world economies and so far he is winning. As long as he refuses to hold his thoughts on tariffs and anxiously pushes his timeline of 90 days shorter this market is TOAST! It will NEVER gain traction. Despite his billionaire warnings he seems determined to mention tariffs at every opportunity.

Rick Ackerman a perma-bear and a huge fan of trump has concluded that TRUMP single handedly prevented the next crash and is in fact about to embark on another huge new all-time high stock market move. The absurdity of fanatic thought like this reminds me every day why we are where we are today.

My BEST-CASE SCENARIO is that TRUMP shut his impulse to spew out world hate and paranoia for those 90 days he promised. Once Powell is gone he will announce glorious rate cuts along with tax cuts. Trump seems determined to win a prize for the fastest most effective way to destroy a countries economy and political structure. He has a head start and should easily finish with a spurt.
======================================================

This current Market Move is interesting. it can hold the 4840 area and form a double bottom, or it can easily morph into a 5th wave and break decisively the 4840 resistances. Given that it is happening DURING the eye of the storm tariff war the odds favor a double bottom. If the man insists on talking up WAR all bets are off. I KNOW his rich pals are DEMANDING he keep quiet about tariffs till then. That however has little effect on what he decided to do.

[gdl]

The entire Pentagon defense technology team is resigning, putting US at huge risk of cyberattacks

But we do add to the tax cut prize. BOMBS AWAY!

[gdl]

The moron can't stop talking Tariffs. No one, and nothing will stop him continually bringing it up. His obsession is getting worse. When they don't fall to their knees and beg for a deal, he gets angrier and lashes out like the petulant child he is. I always related to his emotional stability as a petulant spoiled child. His temper tantrums are getting worse as he gains full control of this nation.

He can NOT contain himself. Seems we DO NOT have to wait the 90 days. This as he defies everyone, the GOP, Supreme Court, and his billionaire supporters. But the deaf dumb and blind voter has only marginally fallen from their love for him. Like HITLERS supporters, ONLY a war and defeat brought them shame. I do not count of the voter to be the ones that take him down.

Now to the MARKET If TRUMP can't stop his temper tantrums for the 90 days required, we can't gain any traction. My best understanding is that the technicians take over ignoring the Trump wrecking ball and assume 4840 on SPX would be hit again with absolute support. It should hold just based on the psychology of the investor. A SPIKE move should be seen right after. How high and long that last is anyone's guess.

For NOW I am counting on another test of 4840. If it hits and holds expect a technical spike move up from there.

[gdl]

Trump Says Alleged Gang Members Don't Need Hearings Because the Government Is Infallible

A dozen House Republicans fire warning shot to Mike Johnson on Medicaid cuts

White House hints at some trade-deal progress — minus China. Here’s how Trump is pressing Xi. - Dangle the carrot.
===========================================================================

BORING..... Same old..... NUMBED by it...... America home of the depraved, greedy, immoral unethical paranoid. The BIBLE BELT embraces the DEVIL with fervor.

245% China tariff causes market confusion - Now that's funny. I guess they can't grasp the math past 100 percent.
==========================================================================

The pounding of a nail into our coffin every single day and we are about finished and soon we lower the corpse into the ground. I marvel at the public's acceptance of the dismantling of our freedoms. We do so with ever increasing overlay of the devil's work.

[gdl]

WH once again ignores the Judge's decision and makes it completely clear that the PRESS has to play ball and say only positive reporting on TRUMP
The courts will as usual IGNORE his insults. We no longer have a democracy but as many people believe this statement as they did a decade ago. In fact that welcomed this. The vacuum of warning bells or silent alarm seems to be heard by no one. We just accept the new world order and wake up to a fast-moving authoritarian nation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/white-house-does-end-run-around-trump-judge-s-order-on-ap/ar-AA1CZGL2

[gdl]

Tired of posting example after example of trumps pettiness an illegal discrimination against his opposing party. Just one of thousands of actions by TRUMP that shuls have people up in arms. Instead, they praise his BOLDNESS.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/trump-administration-denies-fema-funds-to-democratic-led-states/ar-AA1CZkDO

As for Wall Street they are starting to convince themselves TRUMP and his actions ae detached from market moves. The VIX isn't yet convinced nor is the actual movement from the market itself. I have shaken my had throughout this long process from reelection to today's sanguine responses. Maybe despite my understanding of trump the market can surge ahead. They have in the past.

[gdl]

'Unheard of and improper': Trump admin refuses to produce high-ranking official to testify about controversial use of 'death master file' in pressuring migrants to self-deport

I can't keep up with the daily dismantling of all rights, all semblance of a democracy, and above all the maximum acceleration of numbed response to all this. Like Hitlers campaign to dehumanize the JEW Trump is doing it with all aspects of our lives. So far most don't care or see it affect them personally. The ones in power, the Democrats are continuing to play the same game thinking their power would soon be secured and feel this is a great way to secure this power by allowing it to build.

[gdl]

Seems Trump is too busy dismantling our freedoms to make clear his tariff position. I suspect it is a conscience effort to EASE in the elite into a stock market implosion. They are the ones exiting the markets and have 3 months to get their affair in order.

I love the silence from the Supreme Court and the press over the first of many defying actions trump achieves against the paper tiger Stupreme Court. they will soon be ignored totally by the press as only a small nuisance for trump.

Trump has already managed to destroy the Supreme Court and all laws contrary to his mandate. The constitution is already in shambles. The GOP will slowly defy him as their elected reps get thrown out even with massive cheating. In less than TWO years TRUMP will be the only man standing.

ALL this is happening in total darkness. The DEMS are playing the same game they started with by allowing TRUMP to destroy his party. they think as politicians and not as representatives of our republic. They are perhaps the worse culprit of this dismantling. they allow it out of GREED as the REPUKS are.

All factions of Trumps supporters and detractors are looking out for themselves. Thats is our downfall. As for the voter, well there is no excuse and their evil is exposed. For now EVIL is praised. Till they become one of the victims.

[gdl]

WITHOUT a clear concise proclamation from Trump on Tariffs the odds of this move lasting 3 months or regaining much of the losses is dim. That is NOT to say we don't have a recovery of some sort or that it can't last till end of June. It JUST means it will be sloppy and shallow.

I doubt trump gives clarity since his intent from 10 years ago is to tariff the world. He could CAVE IN with built up frustration and announce his intent to introduce those massive tariffs in plain English and that would start the crash, or he can hold his tongue long enough for the VIX to calm down and the market to hold steady.

The MARKET is desperate to interpret any daylight into a sunny day. I am just not sure trump is willing to lie to that extent.

I find it hilarious that the most important proclamation and drive by TRUMP happens to be the most annoying and defensive by his followers. Almost as if he picked the ONE mandate that would test his loyalists resolve on purpose. He loves to watch his loyalist's squirm. He also loves to go beyond embarrassing others to prove his superiority. He enjoys shocking those most loyal like a child enjoys taking a magnifying glass to burn ants. Makes him feel godlike.

The atrocities and blatant destruction of our constitution is compounded daily and you either accept the new reality and continue to support him or you crawl into a ball and shut him out. There is no longer an option of anger against the man, only embarrassment.

[gdl]

Homies are NEXT! Ship out American Citizens to El Salvador. GOP, Supreme Court seem perfectly fine with it. In fact, since trump defied their order to "facilitate" the release of a mistaken prisoner in El Salvador the response has been TOTAL SILENCE. The day Trump defies the courts passed and not a single shot has been heard. We The People just don't care. Just make us wealthy.

I am always astonished just how much destruction he has accomplished in such a short period of time. He will make sure the GOP maintain their dominance thru cheating within 2 years' time. He will make sure all laws and freedoms in the constitution is abolished. He will make sure HE himself remains in office till he dies. He will cause a Depression "The Likes of Which We Have Never Seen Before". He will transform Permanently the political structure here. He will or already has forced all opposition into silence. The STRONG ARM of the Dictator.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-exposed-in-hot-mic-moment-planning-further-abuse-of-power/vi-AA1CVQgF#details

[gdl]

Murdoch Paper Floats Impeaching Trump Over Tariffs

The DAY of Reconning is here. No one cared how immoral, unethical, or INSANE Trump is as long as he didn't touch their 3rd rail. he did and will going forward and they have NOTHING they can do to stop it. I am simply amazed at the stupidity of the billionaires. They absolutely knew his TOP priority. They ignored it because they ONLY saw what he could do for them and not how he could destroy them.

MURDOCH and the GOP are helpless as this NAZI ignores all. I LOVE IT!

Within 90 days we find out if TRUMP is even concerned about his pals or if he has decided he is on his own. In truth he needs NO ONE going forward. He already has a huge uphill battle to subvert the election laws. He can always suspect elections by starting a war. This is the moment Hitler broke from his handlers.

The unhinged Trump is fuming and huffing and puffing over fantom problems. he is getting EVERYTHING he wants but always wants more and always finds reasons to be mad. The more he gets control the more he fumes. Seems he is realizing anything and everything he does will not be enough to quench his pain.

I am debating with myself whether he sticks to the 90 day pledge. i have NO DOUBT he will revert back to maximum tariff mode. NONE!

I need to see a sustained recovery for 2 plus months. i need to see the VIX drop to 14. It will increase my odds of a big return on betting options. For now however I can imagine any day a massive surprise to plunge us into a crisis. I HOPE he has enough restraint to hold off till those 90 days passes.

[gdl]

THE DAY TRUMP told the Supreme Court to F'off. An HISTORIC MOMENT. We shall see what they do going forward. Basically, they can't do very much. It is the day we realize they are POWERLESS to control TRUMP and makes their ruling meaningless from here on out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/defiant-screw-you-expert-stunned-as-trump-admin-thumbs-its-nose-at-supreme-court/ar-AA1CQWxP

This NEWS comes at the same time TRUMP demands CBS lose its license.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-goes-nuclear-at-tv-network-over-ukraine-and-greenland/ar-AA1CRFVR

ALSO on same day - North Carolina just stole an election by ignoring the voters choice.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/north-carolina-republicans-might-just-get-away-with-stealing-an-election-opinion/ar-AA1CS4eI
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HISTORIC DAY - 4/24/2025 the day AMerica lost control of its political system completely. With not a murmur from anyone. ASTONISHING!

[gdl]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trump-hails-standing-ovation-at-ufc-314-as-vote-of-confidence-we-re-doing-a-good-job/ar-AA1CPTbM

The MAN needs a lot of this in order to CONTAIN his demeanor. Seems he is getting more unstable the more he pushes his power towards total dictatorship. You would think it would be the opposite. He will ultimately test his ability to unprovoked attack someone or country. Not just by a DOJ inquiry but real action.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/firm-that-won-multimillion-defamation-suit-against-fox-news-takes-on-trump/ar-AA1CNVUy

This NEWS for instance will get TRUMP really worked up. Some BALLS from a Big Firm is exactly what Trump did not want. I would be shocked, surprised and even elated if the Supreme Court takes this up and actually gives a clear concise ruling. I suspect they will NOT! It would directly challenge trumps authority, and the conservatives went out of their way to make sure he has it. It will once and for all show just how corrupt the OURT today is. This is a clear violation on multiple levels. BUT the COURT already ruled he is untouchable in office no matter what he does. Interesting dilemma. I am sure the geniuses on the Bench will find a way out of this mess by issuing another murky ruling.

Gee, we need the Stupreme Court to decide whether the President of USA can personally attack and destroy a company or individual for doing their job that included Trump as the actionable party. A TOUGH ONE.

[gdl]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-praises-bukele-for-imprisoning-world-enemies-in-el-salvador/ar-AA1COTJj

Trumps response to the Supreme Court decision that his "mistake" sending an innocent person to El Salvadore prison. He flaunts his power and refusal to bend to pressure is a constant theme. the voter LOVES IT!

[gdl]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/outrage-as-video-of-trump-bragging-about-enriching-his-billionaire-pals-emerges/ar-AA1CKBa9

Just another day for Trump. Boasting he made 2 of his rich buddies 300 billion on inside trading right before the tariff announcements.

[gdl]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-is-already-undermining-the-next-election/ar-AA1CJn0n

I knew this was going to happen. how else to assure the GOP retain power. Once the Supreme Court ruled trump is a GOD his powers will make sure he is obeyed and punishment delivered at a whim. He will make sure the GOP stays in power and find a way to continue his reign after his term is up. The Supreme Court in their infinite wisdom made sure TRUMP will reshape our system and culture forever. That is till it collapses. The speed at which we are digging out our foundation is fast.

I suspect in 2 years' time trump economic damage would be so great no one would believe it possible for the GOP to win. But they will. Surprise surprise.

[gdl]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/mushy-cnn-experts-try-to-decipher-surprising-supreme-court-ruling/ar-AA1CHPHC

The COURT just gave a ruling that technically supports a clearly claims Trumps was constitutionally wrong, as the law is so freakin clear they had NO CHOICE but to rule that way. They did one better and basically told trump he can (TRY) to get him back and you can take your sweet ass time but if you find it too difficult forgetaboutit. Leave the door wide open for more MISTAKES that become permanent. Closes the door on accountability.

Looks like Supreme Court bending backwards to help Trumps illegal mandate. If experts find the ruling strange you can bet, it is.
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There is only TWO scenarios i can see before we hit the next WALL and crash. One is in less than 3 months placing end of June as the likely top. The other in early September for the end. ALL depends on where the market is positioned at that time. New highs mean September, a full 5 month move from recent lows. If it can't reach old highs, it is in late June/early July.

Just my current OPINION.

[gdl]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/trump-threatens-to-imprison-critics-and-bondi-might-do-it/ar-AA1CJDTA

He is a man on a mission and that in itself seems to make him more obsessed and angrier as he gains more and more POWER! he will imprison and go after individuals that slighted him. he will NOT be satisfied with the drawn our court system and he WILL authorize killings. We the people will hear of this simply because not all of trump's picks lack a conscience. When we do it will be debating time. Granted perhaps another 3% of the trump voting block dissolve but that doesn't matter to TRUMP. he no longer cares what the public does. Once he realizes he can't ever gain a ballot he will work hard to dissolve our constitution.

I was called CRAZY and paranoid. I was called an extremely disturbed pessimist that can't grasp reality well. EVERYTHING, all my worst fears are already here. There is NOTHING MORE to wait for. He doesn't even care if the GOP win the mid-terms if he can't sit in his chair for life. All he needs is a Congress divided. Once his tax cut package is here everything else will be dealt with as he has in the past, by bypassing Congress.

What i am suggesting is that his PLAN has no impediment dead ahead. He only has to wait the 90 days and place those glorious tariffs on the world. Personally, i don't see a rally in the next 3 months but holding the line till then is most likely. He needs to HOLD HIS TONGUE on tariffs till then. It is always possible we do rally but i give the chances of new all time highs at 5%. Approaching those highs between now and then at 40%.
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RFK Jr. falsely claims measles vaccine protection 'wanes very quickly'

[gdl]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/let-s-hear-it-trump-forces-every-cabinet-member-to-praise-him-on-national-television/vi-AA1CI8ba

The most memorable press conference from all the suck ass cabinet members praising Trump. This was a demand by Trump to allow him to stay lucid and happy enough, so he doesn't implode. Oh but he will soon enough.

A CLASSIC! The fake praise, fake smiles, distortions and lies at a moment when the press is still allowed to do their job and have already declared all members a disaster and pain will be the result very soon on all fronts.

[gdl]

Rick Ackerman the MAGA stock market chartist is downright giddy and doubling down that the bottom is in or will be tested but hold.
He sees a HUGE BULL Market starting from here to new all-time highs. To be this sure, this giddy on bullish prospects from a perma-bear is astonishing at this juncture. Like pretending to be an outside observer of a forest fire that has you surrounded. You can relate to its power, strength and ability to bring fresh growth from the ashes left behind. You can't however see your own life in danger.

Instead of hedging he tripled down with a desperate attempt to convince himself just how great trump and his actions are. The world is wrong, and Trump will prevail. In all my life i never understood how a mind can rationalize horrific acts as godlike. But I have never been fanaticized in that way and my minds wiring prevents that from happening for me. I am fascinated how rational human beings can dismiss a mountain of evidence that totally destroys their imagined path.

If HE can do it so can Wall Street. they have a huge capacity to see what they must. Any sliver of sunlight coming thru will be treated as a clear sky day.

[gdl]

I had a dream that got shattered. A silly one where there was a slim possibility that the 5/4 TRUMP Supreme Court would sway the other way. Boyt was I wrong. The slew of smack down against all federal Judges daring to declare trumps action unconstitutional is complete. Clearly most are but the Supreme Court wants to micro-manage and tweak their ruling s so narrow Trump can easily slip by.

I am HOPING for a rally here. I am HOPING for a setup for one historic CRASH. So large and thunderous that the voting base of trumps collapse so resounded both the GOP and Supreme Court take notice. it will only cause friction to the Trump frictionless train. Not stopping it but making for fun press.

I suspect TRUMP will have to bite his tongue to prevent his mention of tariffs till July. Can he. Will he. That is the ONLY possible solution to a recovery here. I am sure he is doing this to give his rich pals, enough time to exit safely.

The total engulfing blitzkrieg pan of Trumps was set in motion from day one with little deviation or damage, I am impressed with the ability of diverse human interests to focus exclusively on their goals and throw away any conclusions that will eventually destroy them forever. Like announcing a Pandemic will have no effect on the stock market. that was believed for 5 weeks into the fast-spreading deadly virus path.

[gdl]

TODAY the market is struggling with the truth on Trumps Tariffs. It will be decided that he is just using it for leverage once again. Like Chamberlains plans to placate the Hitler war machine. The Market WANTS to believe it so it will.

I think the TOP is already in, but we wait till early July. Trump is giving his rich pals time to recover losses and play the swing. they will be well aware before the next round of tariffs. It is as inconceivable that trump abandon them as it is he becomes a woman.

We have set timelines and set external events that will spark the next more deadly drop. As easy as 1 2 3. Anyone not paying attention to a known market timing device is foolish. Let's see when the dust settles and Wall Street, lacking Trumps tariff announcement. will decide everything is coming up roses.

[gdl]

US President Donald Trump ordered extraordinary Justice Department investigations on Wednesday into two members of his previous administration, including one he alleged may have committed "treason."

Fast and furious. In just a short time he has managed to stop all lawyers, individuals and companies from criticizing his administration or him personally. ALL companies bow to his will. The emperor NOW has been seen with a beautiful new designer look that included the illusion of nakedness. His slim buffed body is outlined under this stunning design.
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Mexican President issues chilling five-word warning to Trump over drone strikes on cartels