What is in the best interest of shareholders?
The more I think about it, the more I believe Anavex will be merged into another, similarly sized biotech company in need of cash. The $130 million or so in cash on the balance sheet is Anavex's most valuable asset. $130 million is a lot of money for a small biotech company to raise through traditional stock offerings. In fact, it’s almost impossible to do so. If I put on my director’s hat and think about how to maximize shareholder value, it seems to me the best strategy is to merge into another company in an all-stock deal. The alternative, to go it alone, seems far-fetched. We’re talking about tens of millions of dollars and massive dilution that would need to be raised to conduct large a phase 3 trials in AD and even more if other indications were to be be advanced concurrently, with no assurance of the outcome. Plus, we’re talking about at least several years to even get clinical trial results that investors can trust. Therefore, the logical best way to enhance shareholder value in the near term is to find a buyer who needs cash. In such a transaction, Anavex shareholders would get shares of the acquiring company. I think this is the most likely scenario. I just don’t see a BP acquiring Anavex. BP doesn’t need the cash. What else would they be getting? A failed drug and a pipeline that’s mostly a fantasy? Also, the nature of big pharma is to put resources into technologies they’ve committed themselves too. There is a NIMBY mentality that pervades big pharma. They are not going to throw away their existing programs (mAbs) that they’ve poured millions if not billions into for the sake of an unproven technology that has repeatedly failed every indication and that is pursuing an avenue of treatment that is outside of the mainstream thinking. Also, no executive in big pharma is going to risk their career on an acquisition of a small, toxic company with a sketchy history. It’s just not going to happen.
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