NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Chiugray]

Continuing the thread:

Based on my previous post, the 3 cycles catalysts and mkt cap suppression:
- Cycle 1 (2015-17): $1.0B to $0.03B ($0.97B erased)
- Cycle 2 (2020-22): $1.4B to $0.30B ($1.10B erased)
- Cycle 3 (2022-26): $1.0B to $0.30B ($0.70B erased)
- Total mkt cap erased $2.77B

NWBO catalysts and events are foundational to a multiple $B market cap:
- Sawston facility: build and own a major mfg facility for live cells and cryo storage
- DCVax platform and IP moat: DC maturation, Flaskworks, and Roswell Park
- Completed global Ph 3 trial: Used gold-standard endpoints (overall survival, not PFS), for the hardest-to-treat “emperor of cancer” (GBM)
- Trial success: Long tail survivors, peer-reviewed data in JAMA publication, landmark (~400 clinical trials before it had all failed).

The M&A Check Figure (Peer Reality)
- 2017: Kite Pharma, $12B (pivotal Phase 2, 101 patients)
- 2018: Juno Therapeutics, $9B (mid-stage clinical)
- 2018: AveXis, $9B (Phase 1 study of 15 infants)
- 2019: Loxo Oncology, $8B (drug FDA approved 2 mos prior to acquisition)
- 2020: Forty Seven, $5B (mid-stage clinical trial).

Therefore, a simplistic case that the existing naked short position is extremely large:
- NWBO’s catalysts are major de-risking events in world of biotech investing
- Lawsuit against market makers document “criminal” spoofing since December 2017
- Current mkt cap: $0.3B


Intuition test #2:
Is it possible, substantially, that the official short position of 63M shares is the total short position?
A. Yes
B. No.

(Market manipulators are relying on your intuition to be wrong.)
----- ------

My take:
- Often people associate price-per-share with regards to short positions, but that PPS relates only to the “shorting activity”
- When thinking of “short position existing”, the correct measure should be the “market cap gap”
- Example: Intrinsic value $8.6B (strawman) - now $0.3B = Mkt cap gap $8.3B
- Math: 63M shorted at $0.75/sh (strawman) is <$50M, it does not compute
- Conclusion: the total short position number is way too low.


Intuition test #3:
Shorts manage their exposure, keep total short position low, by combination short and cover trades?
A. Yes
B. No.

(Market manipulators are relying on your intuition to be wrong.)
----- ------

My take:
- Often people associate shorting as sophisticated, make money in both direction (short on the way down and cover on the way up). But not always.
- Unicorn companies continually put out catalysts that are major de-risking events.
- Short’s ammunition is continually spent on preventing run-ups in price during these catalysts, creating “phantom” (naked) shares in major volume.
- De-risking events for unicorn companies are foundational to market caps
- NWBO Longs are “diamond hands” in large part
- As such “short covering” in volume is not likely.


Intuition test #4:
Assuming the total short position existing now is only 63M shares, what kind of short squeeze happens upon MHRA approval of DCVax-L for GBM?
A. None
B. Small: Day 1 price gaps up to $3, 100M shares trade, 63M covered in 1 day. Squeeze over.

(Market manipulators are relying on your intuition to be wrong.)
----- ------

My take:
- Neither, because none of that makes any sense.
- 10+ years of market manipulation with trapped shorts, their total exposure will not be so small.


Intuition test #5:
Assume instead: the EZPZ Trading website is correct: 1.5B short position (1.4B naked, synthetic contracts).
https://ezpztrading.com/market-data/stocks/short-interest/?symbol=NWBO
What kind of short squeeze do we have then?

A. Small
B. Medium
C. Large
D. Giant (Volkswagon squeeze)
E. MOASS (Gamestop squeeze multiplied by “unicorn” substance)

(Market manipulators are relying on your intuition to be wrong.)
----- ------

My take:
- Whether it is C, D, or E, the rewards will be large.
- Squeeze functions: “floor price establishment”, price discovery for “DCVax platform”, and FOMO realization
- Scarcity: Diamond hands Longs, 1.5B short, and new money investors all compete to buy shares
- Without reaching like $25/sh, there will likely not be enough shares for Shorts to cover completely
- Month 1: Margin calls on Retail shorts and smaller hedge funds
- Month 2: Large hedge funds forced to cover
- Month 3: Market makers forced to cover

Hypothetical supply of shares bottleneck, and The Math:
- 1.4B (Naked Shorts) + 1.6B (Shares OS) = 3.0B total shares currently "owned."
- Problem: only 1.6B authentic certificates in existence.
- Result: If the 97.7% Retail base (diamond hands) “does not sell”, there are “no” shares available to cover a 1.4B share liability.
- Conclusion: In this scenario, price discovery is no longer about "value", it would be about forced liquidation at “any” price.

As always, IMHO.


Summary
- Day of and following DCVax-L approval: Expect total chaos in price action.
- Shorts will have a short window to pump FUD exponentially before their margin calls and forced coverings hit.
- Don’t get lost. A 100M trading volume day (or 5 in a row) may seem crazy then, but it does NOT mean Shorts covered 500M shares, or even 10% of their position. There will be many factors then.
- Best to all Longs.