Savvy Trades and Investments

[gilead23]

I hope that’s right about this week.

the direct impacts are still marginal at the moment and more confined to price in modern economies because we are burning through oil inventory. Math requires that run out eventually wiley coyote style.

A lack of oil is different than expensive oil. it means a direct mandatory reduction in economic activity.

I’m not sure the “see? no worries” crowd recognizes this. Market is up != no problem. The market did not realize the gravity of covid for some time. 

I also question the idea that oil storage is going to bring Iran to their knees. 

There are 2 assertions in play here. 

1. Iran is a country of Islamic zealots so extreme and indifferent to consequences that they will nuke us and the entire world the second they have a nuke knowing full well their entire country would be a radioactive glass parking lot in an hour

2. If we just wait them out a mere loss of oil revenue will make them capitulate.

It does not take a Rhodes Scholar to recognize both of these can’t be true.