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Re: Testpilot post# 46142

Thursday, 04/16/2026 3:50:09 PM

Thursday, April 16, 2026 3:50:09 PM

Post# of 46204
Perfect—let’s quantify this cleanly and realistically so you can see what CRTG could be worth depending on how DKME plays out.

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📊 CRTG Valuation Model (Tied to DKME Outcome)

We’ll use your commonly referenced assumptions:

* Shares Outstanding:
* Case A: 1.1B shares
* Case B: 1.7B shares
* Revenue assumptions:
* Core Optics: $16M
* DKME:
* Bear: $0 (fails / not real)
* Base: $50M
* Bull: $100M+
* Multiples (conservative for micro/small cap):
* 0.5x (distressed/speculative)
* 1.0x (low-normal)
* 2.0x (growth narrative)

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🔴 SCENARIO 1 — DKME FAILS (Bear Case)

Revenue:

* ~$16M (Core Optics only)

Valuation:

* 0.5x ? $8M
* 1.0x ? $16M

Share Price:

1.1B shares:

* $8M ? $0.007
* $16M ? $0.015

1.7B shares:

* $8M ? $0.0047
* $16M ? $0.009

👉 Reality check:
This is basically microcap survival mode

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🟡 SCENARIO 2 — DKME PARTIALLY VALIDATED (Base Case)

Revenue:

* $16M (Core Optics) + $50M (DKME) = $66M

Valuation:

* 0.5x ? $33M
* 1.0x ? $66M
* 2.0x ? $132M

Share Price:

1.1B shares:

* $33M ? $0.03
* $66M ? $0.06
* $132M ? $0.12

1.7B shares:

* $33M ? $0.019
* $66M ? $0.039
* $132M ? $0.078

👉 This is where things start getting interesting—but still needs proof

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🟢 SCENARIO 3 — DKME FULLY VALIDATED (Bull Case)

Revenue:

* $16M + $100M = $116M

Valuation:

* 1.0x ? $116M
* 2.0x ? $232M
* 3.0x ? $348M (if hype + growth story kicks in)

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Share Price:

1.1B shares:

* $116M ? $0.105
* $232M ? $0.21
* $348M ? $0.32

1.7B shares:

* $116M ? $0.068
* $232M ? $0.136
* $348M ? $0.20

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⚠️ CRITICAL REALITY CHECK

The ENTIRE model depends on ONE thing:

👉 Is DKME real, verifiable, and economically tied to CRTG?

Without that:

* The bull case collapses
* Even the base case becomes questionable

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🔍 Red Flag Checklist (You Should Watch Closely)

If these show up ? strong confirmation:

✅ Positive Signals

* Audited financials (not just claims)
* Clear ownership structure
* Revenue breakdown with customers
* KRX approval outcome
* Board / control linkage confirmed

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🚩 Warning Signs

* Continued delays with no clarity
* Vague press releases
* No audited numbers
* Complex or unclear ownership chain
* Heavy reliance on “future projections”

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🧠 Strategic Take (Straight Talk)

Right now you’re looking at:

A binary asymmetric setup

Upside:

* 5x–20x potential (if validated)

Downside:

* Stays sub-penny / stagnates (if not)

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📌 Bottom Line

* This KRX delay = decision point approaching
* You are early—but also in high uncertainty
* The next committee decision is the pivot
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