Vlispxpert's Underground

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SCO BOIL KOLD DRIP
This firm thinks Oil will be as low as $25 to $30 after the war is over and NATGAS is in abundant supply.

Energy analyst Doomberg (the "green chicken") argues that the ongoing war against Iran has created a real but temporary global oil supply shock. However, oil prices have surprisingly struggled to sustain above $100/barrel despite disruptions like the (partial/de facto) closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on tankers/facilities, and other geopolitical risks.
He predicts that once the war ends and "normal" flows resume, oil prices won't just fall—they could collapse dramatically to $25–$30 per barrel (or even lower in the longer term). This isn't hyperbole; it's driven by structural market dynamics.
Why Oil Hasn't Spiked More (Short-Term)

Aggressive releases from Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) by the US and coordinated Western efforts have capped upside.
Markets and counterparties have shown resilience; a sustained 10% drop in global production might push prices toward $200, but that's not materializing due to interventions and quick adaptations.
Doomberg frames the war as causing a "punctuated equilibrium" in energy markets—sudden disruption followed by rapid rebalancing.

Long-Term Outlook: Why a Collapse to $25–$30?

Supply surge post-war: New production ramps up elsewhere (US shale response to higher prices, potential from Venezuela, Argentina's Vaca Muerta, and other non-Persian Gulf sources). Political constraints on supply could ease.
Demand destruction: High prices accelerate fuel switching (oil-to-gas, coal, lighter hydrocarbons), reduced oil use for electricity generation, and efficiency gains. Oil can't sustainably stay at $100+ (let alone $150–$200) without triggering recessionary demand drops.
Regional shifts: Long-term changes in global oil production and consumption (2000–2024 trends continue). Emerging divide between a petrodollar world (Western Hemisphere/"Fortress North America" energy independence) and a petroyuan world (Asia/Middle East, with China/Russia dynamics).
Inventory and logistics: Post-war restocking, expanded storage, and better routing around chokepoints reduce risk premiums.
Historical parallel: High prices (like $147 in 2008) spurred the shale revolution; similar innovation ("next shale") could emerge (e.g., natural hydrogen, ultra-deep drilling).

Doomberg notes oil could become more of a backup fuel in a diversified energy mix, with natural gas showing different dynamics (co-produced with oil in shale plays, leading to occasional negative prices in places like the Permian; LNG nuances keep it from spiking as hard).
Other Key Topics Covered

Acceleration of fuel switching, engine/flex-fuel tech, and potential impacts on nuclear ambitions (risks in the Middle East highlighted).
Investment angles: Opportunities in volume/midstream infrastructure, diversification, and fuel-switching technologies rather than pure directional oil bets.
Doomberg's wartime approach: Avoid hyperbole, respect markets, and refrain from criticizing leadership during conflict.
Broader context: "Fortress North America" self-sufficiency, gasification/home drilling trends, and removing political barriers to supply growth.