Yes that's true though it appears Anavex are indeed about to do another trial so will eventually be in this same situation only with much more promising data already in hand than LLY had in hand with their phase 2.
As mentioned back in early 2021 LLYs phase 2 top line result was valued around $22 billion.
From chat gpt:
"Lilly’s initial top-line Phase 2 announcement was on January 11, 2021. Reuters reported the stock went up as much as 13%, and another same-day market note showed Lilly at $189.40, up $22.99, or 13.8% after the announcement.
Lilly’s 2020 10-K says it had 958,425,693 shares outstanding as of February 12, 2021. Using the quoted move from about $166.41 to $189.40, the implied market cap went from about $159.5 billion to about $181.5 billion. That is an increase of about $22.0 billion."
Admittedly some of that was excitement value - "The fuller March 2021 presentation/NEJM publication still showed the 32% slowing on iADRS, but the market reaction turned more skeptical once investors focused on the mixed secondary read-through and safety profile. Lilly itself highlighted consistency across cognition/function measures, but Reuters noted not all secondaries were statistically significant, and ARIA-E occurred in 27% of treated patients.
If you want the immediate Phase 2 market-implied value: ~$22B
If you want the more realistic value investors assigned to the actual, imperfect Phase 2 package before Phase 3 confirmed things: ~$10–15B"
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