Bigworld, Looks like Trump's latest TACO move isn't working to bolster the stock market. A 10 day reprieve, but the world is no longer buying into his 'boy who cried wolf' act.
10 days is about the time needed to get US forces in place for an assault on Kharg Island. But the US troop ship will first have to get through the Straits of Hormuz to reach Kharg, and what happens if the ship is hit? But assuming it gets to Kharg and the island is taken, the US then has control over Iran's main oil 'spigot' (90% of Iran's own exports go via Kharg). So that part is good, and gives Trump more leverage.
But even after Kharg is taken, Iran's missiles (and mines) can still keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. By controlling Kharg, Trump can shut off Iran's own oil exports, removing the revenue Iran needs to function. But how long does it take for Iran to then cry uncle? Months? Trump's problem is that the flow of oil from the other Gulf countries will continue to be stopped, and at some point the global economy plunges into a deep recession. It's already been one month, and another month (or two), and the damage to the global economy is massive.
Then there's the escalation risk. We take Kharg, Iran responds by hitting the oil infrastructure of the other Gulf States, the US and Israel retaliate, hit Iran's power grids and water facilities, and Iran responds in kind to hit the Gulf State's power and water grids, etc. Then the whole region takes years to rebuild, and the oil / gas flow can't recover until 2027-28?
This whole thing is crazy. Trump should just declare victory and pull out of the mess. He can restore his pride by bullying Cuba into submission. But will Trump's ego allow him to take the logical path? Seems unlikely.
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