Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[TastyTheElf]

At times like these I need to console myself with a sober look at a worst case scenario. If that represents a reasonable floor, it's easier to relax about all this.

So what is that scenario? Denner gives up on thinking he can actually make a profit on this ill-conceived speculation, and looks to salvage some value.

There has to be somebody out there who can do simple math. Assuming a really poor trajectory of revenues, all things considered, you still have to be able to see cash flow positive out to 2039 with expenses as skinny as they are now. Maybe worst case, that's $20mm this year, ramping up to $100mm by say 2033, and then staying there until 2039 as the US winds down while Europe keeps growing.

So that somebody looks at this and says, "Shit, I don't need to spend $100mm on OpEx... this is a simple bolt-on, I can fire almost everybody, I have to be able to get that incremental OpEx for me down to $40mm -- $50mm worst case." So now that somebody can add $50mm in cash flow onto the existing stream. $70mm ramping to $150mm. Some taxes will have to be paid, as the NOL won't be fully utilizable.

Still, that has to support a $1bn price tag at a minimum. Call it $50 per share. Is the worst case here worse than that?