Plug Power Inc (PLUG)

[rickn23]

It had good things to say about green hydrogen:

Biomethane feeding ammonia plants to replace natural gas is more likely, but more likely yet is importing green hydrogen.

An alternative pathway is manufacturing green ammonia in a high solar and wind jurisdiction such as Morocco and shipping it to Rotterdam. In that model, large scale electrolysis produces hydrogen on site at the ammonia plant. There is no methane feedstock and no CO2 capture chain. Electrolyzer capital costs outside China remain around $2,000 per kW installed. Electricity consumption is roughly 50 to 55 kWh per kg of hydrogen. If power costs $30 per MWh and electrolyzers run at 65% capacity factor, levelized hydrogen costs land in the $3.5 to $5 per kg range. Converting that hydrogen into ammonia requires the same 176 kg per ton. Shipping from Morocco to Rotterdam adds on the order of $20 to $40 per ton. The delivered green ammonia cost is plausibly $800 to $1,000 per ton in current market conditions. Operational emissions are low. Hydrogen leakage at 0.2% to 1% with a GWP20 multiplier of around 33 leads to 0.01 to 0.06 tons of CO2e per ton of ammonia. Shipping adds perhaps 0.02 to 0.04 tons. The total is 0.03 to 0.11 tons of CO2e per ton. That is near zero relative to grey ammonia.

If Rotterdam grey ammonia costs $600 per ton and blue ammonia costs $650, the premium is $50. If blue avoids 1.5 tons of CO2e per ton on average, the abatement cost is about $33 per ton of CO2e. If green ammonia costs $900 and avoids 2.8 tons, the abatement cost is around $107 per ton of CO2e. Blue looks cheaper per ton of CO2 avoided, but it does not reach near zero emissions. Green is more expensive today, but it approaches full decarbonization.

Grey ammonia becomes structurally uncompetitive in a €200 to €300 world, but sees the first blue hydrogen competitive loss in the €130 carbon price range, and loses to imported green ammonia from Morocco in the €150 carbon price range.

By contrast, importing green industrial intermediates such as low-carbon ammonia, green iron, or methanol from regions with abundant low-cost renewable power preserves industrial competitiveness without exposing the broader economy to volatile energy pricing or expensive under-utilized infrastructure. Importing these feedstocks allows Germany and other European producers to decarbonize upstream inputs while keeping high-value downstream transformation and manufacturing activities domestic, supporting jobs and value creation without remaking the entire energy system around hydrogen as an energy carrier rather than as a specialized industrial input. This approach treats green intermediates as tradable inputs that can be buffered, contracted, and managed commercially, rather than as system-wide energy price setters, preserving competitiveness in global markets.