Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Good Ole Bill]

Trying to read the minds of the Committee members reviewing Anavex’s application to CHMP.

Other than there was a “negative trend” when voting started last month, we don’t know the breakdown of positive versus negative votes that were recorded or the backgrounds of those who were negative or not voting. That voting was halted suggests that someone thought the application could be salvaged given time for re-consideration before the final vote in December.

That leads to questions regarding what the members may have seen and done since November. We’re told that no new information can be received or considered before the vote is finalized. That’s obviously not binding as we’re also told that information from outside will be shared with the members. Likewise, it’s not likely that members were prohibited from seeking more information on their own. It’s not like a judge telling jurors that they’re not to discuss a case among themselves. Aside from Mayo’s excellent document, there will be other petitions we don’t know about. My feeling is that positive opinions will far outweigh any negative submissions.

We should also expect there will be some lobbying in the background by positive voters to sway the votes of the negatives. There’s more positive to say at this point than negative. The lack of additional trials may have been the sticking point among some voters. This can be overcome by Anavex agreeing to conduct a confirmatory trial as a condition for approval.

I remain cautiously optimistic over our chances for approval sooner rather than later.

Bill