Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[BakedLangostino]

I don't necessarily disagree, Hoskuld. But when I build revenue forecasts models, I generally try to be conservative and even more so after the CEO has twice seen success snatched away by the claws of failure so I'm going to assume he's going to need $300mm to get this across the finish line when all is said and done. This keeps into account his need for a cash runway buffer, which I expect will be considerably greater in light of today's news. I don't expect him to go small on the offering, expect up to 200mm shares outstanding -- the max. He wants full firepower and even if he has to dilute above the ideal, he'll do what it takes to make sure he can run as many trials as needed to get Rett, PDD, Schizophrenia and Alzheimer's into regulators hands.

The entire market sees Anavex has having to punt. I believe Missling thinks and will act as if it's only third down (because it is). Third with a huge penalty.

How this happened, there's time for blame later. Right now the need is to ensure the plan forward will work. Dr. Missling very well could be replaced. I'd love to see Dr. Gabellle or Dr. Sabbagh.