Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[mouton29]

This is the summary of their research on the poor person's website (chase.com). I'm trying to get access to the full report. Their assuming ENTA ends up with a fraction of the sales via partnering arrangement.

Enanta Pharmaceuticals (ENTA): Initiating at Overweight – Zelicapavir Potential in RSV Underappreciated & Strategically Attractive. - Rama Note
We are initiating coverage on Enanta (ENTA) with an Overweight rating and a December 2026 price target of $17. Our positive outlook on ENTA shares is driven by recent phase 2b data for zelicapavir (N-Protein inhibitor) in Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) – a viral infection with significant unmet need. Indeed, the phase 2b data in high-risk adult population study showed faster symptom reduction in the overall population as well as HR3 population – which included patients with CHF, COPD, =75 years of age – ranging ~0.5-7 days relative to placebo across a range of symptom assessments (no major safety concerns). When looking at “All RSV symptoms – 13 symptoms” and “Total RiiQ – 29 symptoms” ~2-7 days faster symptom resolution relative to placebo was observed in both populations (for reference, approved antivirals have ~1 day faster symptom reduction). Hence, we do see these phase 2b data as de-risking for a phase 3 study in high-risk adult patients, which is anticipated to start after potential FDA discussions are completed. For reference, we estimate peak sales of $1.5B+WW for zelicapavir (~$1B+ in the US alone) and probability of success (POS) of 70%. Importantly, we see zelicapavir as strategically attractive on the back of the strong phase 2b data and long-term market potential (our sense is that Enanta is focused on partnering the product out – i.e., a potential source of significant non-dilutive financing). Accounting for a global partnership, we assume peak WW net revenues of ~$300M+ from zelicapavir alone. Of note, we also see multiple levers for additional upside in the model including – increase in zelecapavir peak sales / POS and pipeline optionality.