My thoughts on when they absolutely need to have Eden in commercial production are as follows. I have no idea how Eden might tie in to MAA approval; however, on a business and cash flow basis, if NWBO can max out their current Artisan capacity of ~1000 patients in the first year, that would be a fantastic commercialization success, imo. Even with rGBM greatly increasing the possible patient pool beyond 3500 annual nGBM patients, that might not seem to be a huge penetration of the market; but I think that will be a huge success if they can do close to that in the first year. Some longs might think that NW can go from 0% to filling 100% of artisan capacity in less than a year but I'm guessing that is unrealistic. I'm very open to hearing other opinions if they are backed by reasonable analysis.
If the economics are even close to $100k per customer at 50% GM (both are probably in the ballpark IMO), then given they will have a bit of extra existing and maybe new 3rd party revenue from Advent, and slightly lower costs per patient dose due to absorbing Advent in-house, 1000 customers will get NW to cash flow break even or at least close. To break into much more impressive per share gross profits, they need to treat much more of the total annual UK GBM patient population and/or get approved and get sales going in the EU or in the USA. But IMO doing 1000 patients in the first year would be a blow-out success in every sense. And that means that Eden while might be needed asap for regulator purposes or to put a lower production price tag and/or higher margins, it's hard for me to imagine they absolutely will need Eden to meet the patient demand sooner than 1 year post approval. I will mean huge success with commercialization if they did reach the limit of artisan capacity in that timeframe Admittedly I'm taking a WAG on artisan production cost and the revenue per patient, but I don't think I'm making absurd assumptions of what might be possible in practice. Reaching actual good margins in practice will depend on ramping up the patient numbers, but if once they get to 50-100 patients per month, they should be well beyond making their fixed production costs. That sounds like a heck of lot of patients to get to, starting out from 0; I'm just trying to make a WAG about how soon we can imagine NW exceeding the artisan production limit in actual practice, hence having a timeline to when they might absolutely need to have Eden approved for commercial production.
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