E-Wave for the S&P 500 Index

[RCKS]

"On October 13, the first update after the Trump mini-crash, I warned that "nothing had happened yet" ("[T]he bottom line is, from a technical Elliott wave perspective, nothing has happened yet............"

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On October 13, the first update after the Trump mini-crash, I warned that "nothing had happened yet" ("[T]he bottom line is, from a technical Elliott wave perspective, nothing has happened yet and this could just be a particularly violent fourth wave.") and not to get too bearish unless key support broke in the form of the long term chart immediately below -- as well as the red trendline in the chart that follows this one:



SPX red channel chart:



Finally, a quick update to INDU, just to note that this isn't a "bull nest" yet, it appears to be an ongoing third wave still:



In conclusion, futures are suggesting a new all-time high at the open, so it appears that not panicking in the wake of the mini-crash was the right call. Given INDU's three-wave rally into its ATH, it appears bulls likely still have the ball for the immediate future, even if there's another leg down directly. Trade safe.

Wednesday's Update:

So I'm going to start off by cursing one of my charting services, whom I won't name directly (rhymes with "Fading Shoe"), for giving us a bum price chart. It turns out the the "BREAK" of the prior low, as shown on that SPX 24 hour chart, was not something that actually happened in this universe and was potentially bleeding over from an alternate reality wherein Dave Barry won the presidential election and Tuesdays were declared a permanent national holiday. This nonexistent BREAK actually influenced my read on not only Monday, but on the prior Friday (though I didn't mention it on Friday; I simply noted it in my mental model).

Thankfully, I didn't allow it to overrule everything else -- but it did play a factor in my weightings. Thanks to forum member "porkchop" for calling it to my attention.

Anyway, last update noted that bulls should be cautious in the event of a sustained breakdown -- but that didn't happen anyway, so it was kind of a moot point:



So on the chart above... yes, bears could still get another wave down. BUT, INDU now presents a bit of a monkey in the works for bears (I figure a monkey is probably more trouble than a monkey wrench):



Finally, SPX is still within the red channel:



In conclusion, I'll simply reiterate the conclusion I first issued on Oct. 13 and have been reprinting since:

[T]he bottom line is, from a technical Elliott wave perspective, nothing has happened yet and this could just be a particularly violent fourth wave. Even from a standard TA perspective, this could just turn out to be an expected test of old long-term resistance (second chart) before the market moves higher again. In other words: While this could turn into something more significant, it's tempting but simply premature to assume that will happen just yet. Let's first see how the market handles the levels that actually matter.

With the additional note that now INDU is suggesting the "particularly violent fourth wave" has gained additional credence. Trade safe.