News 
Market Data 
Discover
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
"SPX has traded in a circle since last update...."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
SPX has traded in a circle since last update, bouncing off dashed red support, then ending up reversing and closing near it again. Which makes this now the THIRD consecutive update where nothing in the outlook has effectively changed. Which makes finding new and interesting things to write about rather challenging.
NYA managed to bounce over the blue line, then ended up back beneath it -- so we'll see if this is a warning to bulls (it may be)… or a red herring (since SPX is the stronger barometer, and it's still holding its key zone):
In conclusion, rather than reprint the exact same series of warning and caveats that I've said in the past two updates, I'd simply refer everyone back to Sunday night's update if you forgot them. Trade safe.
Cracks Forming -- But Will It Actually Break?
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
No change since last update, except to note that SPX has reached its first downside target-slash-potential support zone. If it sustains trade below dashed red, then solid red becomes the next target (and sustained trade below solid red would then target ~5767). But lest everyone get too focused on the lower levels -- remember, bears do have to punch through dashed red first.
NYA has fallen through its first support line -- bears need to hold that:
In conclusion, the first crack appeared on June 10, and cracks are continuing to spiderweb across the charts -- we'll see if the glass breaks on bulls or not. But if it does, again, please keep in mind what I discussed last update:
That said, be aware that IF the highly speculative 1?? and 2?? on the near-term SPX chart happen to be unfolding, then these early downside targets might be VERY conservative. Because if this is a second wave decline, then its job would be to convince everyone that the bear market is resuming -- which implies a deep and scary decline, potentially of 500 points or more.
And it also bears mention that SPX did not reclaim its all-time high -- which means that if the decline gets teeth, then it's not outside the realm of possibilities that the bear market IS resuming, so we should be aware of that, as well. But before we even consider going there, let's see how bears handle these potential support zones first.
Trade safe.
"The market has, of course, continued to drift higher, like a balloon filled with lukewarm air."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Last update prompted an angry letter from Jerome "the Gnome" Powell, which I will reprint here in its entirety [sic]:
Dear Mister Pretzel Logic,
I sawed ewe said a thing about me. Its KNOT TREW! Stop spredding lyes or eye'll be forced to SEW you!
Jerome Powell
Chairmen of the Fed Earl Rezerve
p.s.- STOP CALLING ME "THE NOME"!!111
Of course, it's never the intention of these updates to foster ill feelings among our feckless fearless leaders, so in the interest of goodwill, my lawyers have reached out to Jerome "the Gnome." Hopefully we can get things patched up, which Jerome can do while he's sewing.
The market has, of course, continued to drift higher, like a balloon filled with lukewarm air. But hey, NYA's chart is of at least minor note -- which is something, anyway:
COMPQ, INDU, and SPX all display near-term patterns that are similar to the rising wedge on NYA -- so it's worth keeping an eye on -- especially since SPX is still bouncing along the underside of the generational black trend line:
Near-term, the black trendline is still the first to watch -- but now, the UPPER red trend line (dashed) could act as first support, so bears would have to whipsaw that (even if black fails) before they'd have a shot at the solid red trendline:
First support is a little easier to see on the near-term chart:
In conclusion, multiple markets have formed apparent "rising wedges" -- but these patterns are not always bearish and can instead suggest a new (minor) launch pad... so we need to keep an eye on the support zones for further clues. Trade safe.
"........SPX remains in its intermediate uptrend for now, so not much else to add........"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
The market has continued to generally bore everyone to death, leaving me forced to write about unsubstantiated rumors regarding Jerome "the Gnome" Powell. Who, according to Sources Familiar With the Matter™, is soon almost certainly going to be stepping down... a flight of stairs. The internet is abuzz with this rumor. Can Powell handle stairs? Will he use the handrail? How many stairs in all? Everyone has an opinion. But Experts on Jerome Powell dismiss this as wishful thinking.
"Jerome Powell hates stairs," one Expert with a PhD in Powell opined, "He'll almost certainly use the elevator."
We'll keep a close eye on this story going forward. Unless I forget, which is likely.
Market-wise, not a lot has happened since the last time we looked at it. Friday traded in a range. I did spot one "possible curveball" -- but it's just a potential, there's not really anything concrete suggesting this will happen. So this is designed to arm readers with this knowledge, in case the market drops on Monday:
Intermediate term, SPX is still holding all its trend lines:
And NYA has now officially captured its next target and potential resistance zone:
In conclusion, SPX remains in its intermediate uptrend for now, so not much else to add. As I've noted several times: The black trendlines on both SPX charts are the first thing to watch for any signs of possible weakness. Trade safe.
"The black trendlines on both SPX charts are the first thing to watch for any signs of possible weakness."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Yesterday, SPX dropped down to test the black trendline that I highlighted on Wednesday:
It also tested the larger black channel:
Finally, NYA has rallied to its next upside target -- which also happens to be the final resistance zone:
In conclusion, no real change from last update, because all we've seen since is additional confirmation of what I wrote then: The black trendlines on both SPX charts are the first thing to watch for any signs of possible weakness. Trade safe.
"........north of 5969 invalidates any hope of that last decline being an impulse.... No Country for Bears"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
A week ago, I noted that
On the one hand, bears didn't damage the uptrend even a little, so from a technical standpoint, bulls still have the ball. On the other hand, the potential impulse down does give bears the best shot they've had all month. And again, north of 5969 invalidates any hope of that last decline being an impulse.
But as has been its way for the past few weeks, the market wasn't interested in entertaining even the slightest bearish notions. Probably the first key line (from a near-term perspective) to watch now is the solid black line.
In conclusion, this is the type of market where -- if you're a bear -- you just keep watching the trendlines (black on both charts) and waiting for the next "best shot." Trade safe.
Market-wise, we're still basically in the same place we were on Friday: Bulls need to hold 5843
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Here's a chart that made the rounds this weekend that I found interesting. For decades, corporate profits made up about 6% of GDP. That was the norm -- a stable share of the economic pie.
Then something broke.
Briefly in the mid aughts, and then again near the launch of the first QE programs, corporate profits surged to 10–12% of GDP and stayed there. That’s not a blip. That’s a sea change.
But here’s the catch: profits don’t rise in a vacuum. If corporations are getting more, someone else is getting less -- usually labor, small business, or the public sector.
So what looks like success is really imbalance.
Cheap debt, globalization, tax loopholes, financialization -- they’ve all propped up margins. But this isn’t just about business thriving. It’s about extraction replacing productivity.
If 6% was the long-term mean, and we’re now at 12%, then either we’ve built a new normal on systemic distortion… or we’re headed for a brutal mean reversion.
What this chart really shows isn’t health. It’s dependency. We've built an entire asset ecosystem, a political cycle, and a fiscal regime on the back of profit levels that may not be sustainable. And if indeed they’re not -- if they even begin to revert -- the ripple effects could be massive.
This kind of chart that tells you the system is unbalanced. And that stocks are priced for perfection based on a profit regime that may not hold.
In short, this isn’t a chart of prosperity. It’s a canary in the coal mine. And it’s been dead for years -- but we’ve hooked it up to an air compressor and have convinced ourselves it’s whistling Dixie.
Worth keeping in the back of one's mind as another suggestion that even though bears have taken a lot of beatings in these intervening years of imbalance... things won't stay that way forever.
Market-wise, we're still basically in the same place we were on Friday:
Not much else to add to the past couple updates. Trade safe.
"So technically the uptrend is still intact and doing just fine -- for now....." ".....from a technical standpoint, bulls still have the ball....."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Since last update, SPX has traded in a tight range, making today's update largely into a "no change" update. Since I hate repeating myself repeating myself, I'm just going to quote last update directly, to save people from needing to reopen it:
Last update contained a lot of warnings for bulls, then concluded with:
The first warning for bulls would be sustained trade south of the black channel (noted on Wednesday as the first downside target). If that channel holds, then no harm, no foul.
As those of you who own theodolites have no doubt already realized, SPX then bounced right at the black channel:
So technically the uptrend is still intact and doing just fine -- for now. That said, the decline looks enough like an impulse that it's worth being very cautious here if you're a bull. The chart below shows what might happen if this is a bear move within a larger bull wave. If this is the start of a larger bear wave, then "look out below" -- so things could get much worse than this. And we're not far from the invalidation level (5969) for bearish things, so...
Then there was this chart, which has been updated with the new price action, though it's almost impossible to tell:
And it concluded with:
In conclusion, on the one hand, bears didn't damage the uptrend even a little, so from a technical standpoint, bulls still have the ball. On the other hand, the potential impulse down does give bears the best shot they've had all month. And again, north of 5969 invalidates any hope of that last decline being an impulse. Trade safe.
".....on the one hand, bears didn't damage the uptrend even a little, so from a technical standpoint, bulls still have the ball. On the other hand, the potential impulse down does give bears the best shot they've had all month. And again, north of 5969 invalidates any hope of that last decline being an impulse."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Last update contained a lot of warnings for bulls, then concluded with:
The first warning for bulls would be sustained trade south of the black channel (noted on Wednesday as the first downside target). If that channel holds, then no harm, no foul.
As those of you who own theodolites have no doubt already realized, SPX then bounced right at the black channel:
So technically the uptrend is still intact and doing just fine -- for now. That said, the decline looks enough like an impulse that it's worth being very cautious here if you're a bull. The chart below shows what might happen if this is a bear move within a larger bull wave. If this is the start of a larger bear wave, then "look out below" -- so things could get much worse than this. And we're not far from the invalidation level (5969) for bearish things, so...
In conclusion, on the one hand, bears didn't damage the uptrend even a little, so from a technical standpoint, bulls still have the ball. On the other hand, the potential impulse down does give bears the best shot they've had all month. And again, north of 5969 invalidates any hope of that last decline being an impulse. Trade safe.
Wednesday's May 21, 2025 Update:
".....mainly I just wanted everyone to remember that there are no guarantees in the market and retests of all-time highs sometimes fail -- so we should all stay on our toes here."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Let's simplify things in this update. While many markets LOOK like they could stand another wave up, the simple observation is: We are retesting a major resistance zone (the all-time high).
And, again, keeping things as simple as possible: Anytime you have a major retest like this, there is a chance the market won't break through.
So, what I'm saying is: Looks can sometimes be deceiving -- especially in financial markets -- so this would not be a good place for bulls to get complacent.
A chart worth paying attention to is COMPQ, because it has done the bare minimum needed to complete its pattern. Now again, it would LOOK a little better with another wave up. But let's not put all our eggs in that basket, lest it get tossed off a roof by a late-lingering Easter Bunny who suddenly realizes that bunnies don't LAY eggs and the entire holiday tradition makes no sense.
Next is SPX -- which is considering whipsawing its last breakout. Recall that whipsaws (were that to occur) can lead to strong moves in the opposite direction.
So that's it for today... mainly I just wanted everyone to remember that there are no guarantees in the market and retests of all-time highs sometimes fail -- so we should all stay on our toes here. Trade safe.
"....it's worth mentioning that if the bull count is active, this decline could either fit as a fourth or a second wave (at higher degree). But in this market, given the massive downside potential, bulls might now want to await CLEAR signs of a bottom (impulsive rallies, etc.) before jumping back in...."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
The entire function of Wednesday's update was to deliver a series of warnings to bulls, noting:
1. COMPQ had done enough for a complete rally
2. The rally could die at current levels, given the proximity to the all-time-high, and
3. that if SPX whipsawed its last breakout, it could suggest "a strong move in the opposite direction."
Last update was a case of "something bothering me" in the charts, but we didn't have any clear impulsive declines to call out, so I couldn't point to any form of proof for readers... but the instinct was strong enough that it led to an update that was basically nothing but warnings, even down to the final conclusion.
Sometimes that's the best I can do: Convey my intuition -- though intuitions are often, by nature, a little vague. Hopefully, given that it was paired with "watch these specific signals" warnings (COMPQ, SPX), it was helpful.
With COMPQ, I've been warning for a week that it had stalled at blue and hence might retest black from above -- so, while not "proof" of a pending reversal, this was nonetheless specific in detail.
SPX provided the cleanest signal, and its whipsaw of the red breakout was the main actionable tell:
I also dug a decade-old chart out of mothballs, because it's interesting here:
In conclusion, it's worth mentioning that if the bull count is active, this decline could either fit as a fourth or a second wave (at higher degree). But in this market, given the massive downside potential, bulls might now want to await CLEAR signs of a bottom (impulsive rallies, etc.) before jumping back in. Because:
Even if this is "just" a second wave -- a second wave could retest the crash low.
A fourth wave wouldn't travel that low, but still has hundreds of points (in SPX) of leeway.
In other words, even the bull counts could be pretty horrifying to attempt to ride out.
And, of course, the bear count breaks the crash low.
So, we're not "writing off the bulls" here -- this could well be a correction to an ongoing rally.
But we also know the downside risk, which is massive -- so we should manage accordingly.
Trade safe.
"....Moody's downgraded the USA's credit rating from AAA to "junk" status (okay, maybe that's an exaggeration)........."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
After the close on Friday, Moody's downgraded the USA's credit rating from AAA to "junk" status (okay, maybe that's an exaggeration), causing futures to drop a bit. This isn't the first time a major agency has downgraded US debt (I recall this happening in 2011 as well) -- "the US debt trajectory is unsustainable" is hardly breaking news to anyone.
But it will be interesting to see if this ends up being just a hiccup (probably), or the start of a more significant turn. Note the chart below:
COMPQ is still below its next resistance zone:
Near term -- IF this is a bull wave -- SPX has a couple ways to approach it:
The chart below pairs with the near-term chart above:
In conclusion, this will be an interesting test of bulls' resolve here. Trade safe.
"..It's worth mentioning that there could be enough waves in place for a correction here... but without any impulsive declines yet, please take that with a grain of salt..."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Last update noted that several markets were reaching resistance zones, and though SPX moved a bit higher, that remains true (given that these are "zones" and not exact levels). We can see SPX is still within points of red resistance:
It's worth mentioning that there could be enough waves in place for a correction here... but without any impulsive declines yet, please take that with a grain of salt:
COMPQ also remains in its resistance zone:
In conclusion, not much else to add (to recent updates) beyond that. We'll see if bears can do anything with this opportunity or if it gets squandered. Trade safe.
".....a number of markets have reached potential resistance zones, so we'll see if there's a pause and/or if bears can get anything going, even near term...."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
A number of readers have asked me to update oil, since it performed basically as expected since the last time I updated that chart (a year ago). I've been hesitant because I don't like this pattern one bit... plus I have a ~14-year win streak going on this chart(!) -- and I would hate to mess that up (winks).
So the two main options that jump out in oil are as noted on the chart:
Next, SPX is back to one of its last remaining resistance zones:
COMPQ has also reached its next potential resistance zone:
Big picture, INDU is still performing in line with a pattern we've been tracking for a year and a half now:
In conclusion, a number of markets have reached potential resistance zones, so we'll see if there's a pause and/or if bears can get anything going, even near term. Trade safe.
"SPX has not gone bears way and they need to be aware of that. They probably need a reversal fairly soon to keep their near-term (and perhaps even intermediate term) hopes alive."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Last update ended with:
In conclusion, so far, bulls have cleared every level they needed -- which tends to put the burden back onto bears to break those levels, to show they still have remaining firepower.
But things didn't start there -- I've been warning bears for the past two weeks that things weren't looking great for them, once SPX cleared resistance. Going all the way back to April 25, when I wrote:
In conclusion, if bears still have gas in the tank, they probably want to mount a defense of these zones. If they can't, then we should not ignore that
Then on April 28, I wrote:
Since last update, SPX has sneaked over its potential trend resistance lines, so bears have a brief window to reverse this or else they probably need to await an impulsive decline (because the pattern does allow for an ongoing rally if there's no reversal soon)
and
SPX has not gone bears way and they need to be aware of that. They probably need a reversal fairly soon to keep their near-term (and perhaps even intermediate term) hopes alive.
So anyway, here we are two weeks later, with the market about to gap up big. But at least that shouldn't be taking anyone by surprise.
Does this mean bulls have the all-clear? Well, not exactly -- they still have the all-time high to hurdle. But "nothing good happening for bears" (the past couple weeks) doesn't always mean "bulls are a lock." It just means there are no indications bears should get aggressive. Today's open is simply going to be a good illustration of why.
Just two charts today, because there's not much else that hasn't already been said already in recent updates. NYA first:
And SPX:
In conclusion, as I said earlier, this by no means "guarantees" bulls get new all-time highs -- but until bears see something go their way (i.e.- an impulsive decline; see April 28 warning), there's still little reason for them to be involved. Trade safe.
".....bulls have cleared every level they needed -- which tends to put the burden back onto bears to break those levels, to show they still have remaining firepower......"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Lots of news since last update. For starters, Trump's "big announcement" was that we've worked out a trade deal with the UK, so that's really great news for the 79 people who drink Earl Grey tea. Also, on Wednesday, Jerome Powell announced the launch of a signature line of jarred fruit, called "Federal Preserves." The hope is that they'll sell a few hundred billion jars this year and thus be able to square the remaining $6.7 trillion on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.
So this is really bullish stuff, if you haven't been paying attention -- and the charts reflect that. The market is clearly holding out high hopes for "Federal Preserves." (Don't tell the market that I made those up -- we don't want to cause a crash!)
As we can see on the SPX chart, there hasn't been much for bears to get excited about recently, so they'll now need to sustain trade and closes back below black and blue... though, be warned, at some point, the falling blue trendline (the one that runs from the all-time high to red b and beyond) might get tested (again) from above... and that wouldn't be bearish if it holds.
COMPQ is a bit more ambiguous still -- it has merely rallied back to the upside inflection point I suggested a month ago, but not yet beyond. So bears can hold out hope for a rejection here:
In conclusion, so far, bulls have cleared every level they needed -- which tends to put the burden back onto bears to break those levels, to show they still have remaining firepower. Trade safe.
"Today is, of course, a Fed day, so the market will likely decide the winner between these counts in fairly short order."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Last update looked at the bull micro-count, so it's only right to look at the bear micro count in this update. The bear micro count is for a WXY off what I'm calling the "Trump Tariff Low":
WXYs (when correcting bear waves) consist of three ABCs -- two that trend higher, and an intervening ABC that trends lower.
The bull option remains the same as noted last update:
And COMPQ has, so far, been rejected from its standing upside inflection zone:
Today is, of course, a Fed day, so the market will likely decide the winner between these counts in fairly short order. Trade safe.
"....COMPQ has rallied all the way up to its upside inflection, and SPX is sporting a potentially complete or nearly complete wave (impulse?) -- so......."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
There are two charts that are really worth looking at today. The first is COMPQ, which has now bounced all the way from its downside inflection zone to its upside inflection zone -- both of which were drawn on this chart more than a month ago:
The next chart of major interest is SPX. I've illustrated on this chart that the rally can be counted as an impulse. As long time readers know, usually when I see an impulse, I'm fairly comfortable calling it out as such and drawing conclusions from it -- but in this case, I'm not at all confident in it, because the preceding pattern is so... odd. Nevertheless, it's there, and my job is to share what I see. So here it is:
In conclusion, COMPQ has rallied all the way up to its upside inflection, and SPX is sporting a potentially complete or nearly complete wave (impulse?) -- so we should at least be alert to the potential for a turn lower from this general zone. In a bear's perfect world, it would be the start of the next major wave down -- but in a bull's perfect world, it would just be wave (2)/B down, and hence only a correction. We'll watch carefully to see what develops from here. Trade safe.
"SPX is in the ballpark of another POSSIBLE resistance zone, but so far, bulls have been lumbering right through all of those."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
A couple hits since last update:
1. The back-test of the red trend lines occurred.
2. The April 23 upside target was ~captured.
SPX is in the ballpark of another POSSIBLE resistance zone, but so far, bulls have been lumbering right through all of those. And that successful back-test of the breakout is not helpful to bears. Every now and then, though, you will see a successful back-test that leads to one more push which then falters, so it's not a slam dunk just for bulls just yet... but it's still encouraging for them.
NYA is back to its black line:
And INDU has finally gotten on the same page as everyone else:
In conclusion, keep in mind that the most bullish possible pattern here would be a bull nest to new highs. And while the market isn't quite behaving right for that at the moment (there should be more upside momentum), that can change in a heartbeat. On the flip side, it does keep open the option that we're dealing with something else -- at least, as of this second, that's an option. But either way, bears aren't doing anything to get them excited or even really have them do anything other than watch and wait for an impulsive turn -- again, at least, for now. Trade safe.
"SPX has taken on the appearance of a somewhat unorthodox ending diagonal..."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
The market hasn't done much in recent days, so not a lot to add to the big picture, but I do want to call attention to some things on the near-term SPX chart:
And INDU still remains as something of a thorn in bulls' sides for now:
Nothing new has happened beyond that. Trade safe.
Pretzel :
(1) Pretzel presents both a Bull and Bear case.
(2) Pretzel gives both Triggers and Targets
AI
