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"............the pattern still suggests that the current bounce is most likely a fourth wave, to be followed (after it completes) by a fifth wave below last week's low. If anything changes there, we'll discuss that as appropriate."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update opined that the "most likely" scenario was for the current bounce to be a fourth wave, and nothing has happened to alter that so far. Worth mentioning that NYA back-tested its noted broken trend line and was rejected. Another test of the zone near that line is not required, but would be perfectly normal:"
"Next, SPX didn't quite reach the green line -- but again, another go at it, if it happens, shouldn't surprise anyone:"
"Very long-term, SPX is now below its key blue line:"
"Finally, I was looking through last year's chart book, and I just had to share this, because it's weird. First, remember back on May 3, 2022, when I published this chart? (I actually drew the chart in April 2022, but didn't publish immediately.)"
"So here's what's weird... this is the chart as it looks in my old chartbook now:"
"Anyway, (3)/C's timing seems a bit aggressive to me from where I sit now, but sometimes these charts almost draw themselves and can end up being smarter than me, if that makes any sense. So we'll see how that goes. But, however (3)/C goes, the timing of (2)/B (timing is not something I put any conscious thought into) seemed just a bit unreasonable to me.
Oh, almost forgot, gold has opened an option worth being aware of:"
"In conclusion, presently, the pattern still suggests that the current bounce is most likely a fourth wave, to be followed (after it completes) by a fifth wave below last week's low. If anything changes there, we'll discuss that as appropriate. Trade safe."
".....bulls do have some options here, but for now, the "most common" situation would be for the current bounce in SPX and NYA to be a fourth wave."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"As another one bites the dust, I was finally forced to move away from the 80s-music-themed titles. Let's go right to the charts, starting with NYA:"
"SPX captured and exceeded Target 1 from Sept. 8:"
"Bigger picture, SPX is bouncing off the red trend line:"
"There is resistance several places overhead, with 4350ish as a standout:"
"And last but not least, TLT has finally confirmed my wave count from 2022:"
"In conclusion, bulls do have some options here, but for now, the "most common" situation would be for the current bounce in SPX and NYA to be a fourth wave. If things get squirrely, we'll take a closer look at the bull options. Trade safe."
".....the most likely resolution for these patterns is ultimately lower."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Not a whole lot to add to the past few updates, but a couple charts are worth looking at anyway, starting with NYA, which suggests new lows are still lurking out there, one way or another:"
"SPX is in a similar position:"
In conclusion, the most likely resolution for these patterns is ultimately lower. Which really isn't adding anything to the past few updates, but the charts "show the math," so to speak. Be aware that this is potentially dangerous territory for bulls, as unless they can reclaim some key zones, an acceleration of the decline in the fairly near future is very possible. Trade safe.
"...Several market are still sitting at or near theoretical support zones -- if bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then that tells us something about the strength (or lack thereof) of the market."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Those of you with internet access may have noticed that today's title continues the long-running tradition (two days) of referencing classic 80s songs. Not sure if I'll try this again on Wednesday, but I Just Can't Get Enough, so I will be Right Here Waiting to see If This Is It or not.
No change from last update, but I did want to bring forward the NYA chart, which I haven't updated in a while, because it's right at rising support. If bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then a sustained breakdown here quite likely takes NYA down toward blue 3/C:"
SPX is unchanged:
"Hanging out just below green, and no change:"
"No change to the targets:"
"COMPQ still flirting with next support:"
"In conclusion, no real change to anything. Several market are still sitting at or near theoretical support zones -- if bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then that tells us something about the strength (or lack thereof) of the market. Trade safe."
"I continue to suspect we're in the very early stages of a massive third wave decline, to break the 2022 lows and beyond."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Yesterday, SPX confirmed my prediction from September 6, which was that trade below 4460 implied a trip below 4335. But SPX has done more than that since last update. Let's start with the big picture and work backwards, to understand why my lean from August 18 is seeming even more reasonable now:"
"Note the presumed levels on the "roadmap" sketch above and compare with the red 3 target below -- red 3 should take us perilously close to overlap of the key levels above. That will probably trigger a bounce, which would be red 4 and we'll have to hold our breath there because there will be three waves down (which could always be a corrective ABC) and no overlap yet. Then, if all that is in the correct ballpark, red 5 will take us down to new lows (below red 3, anyway) and finally overlap the key levels."
"Bears finally broke the green trend line, but of course, have yet to hold that against whipsaws, so I don't want to imply that we should be complacent here, as the "complex intermezzo correction" is still on the table (if seemingly less likely):"
"Finally, COMPQ broke red and blue support, but closed the session right at its next support zone, so a bounce isn't unreasonable here, and bears do need to claim that (which I suspect they will) to add confidence:"
"In conclusion, SPX this month has captured two upside targets and two downside targets. The next targets are listed, while bulls' main hope for the foreseeable future seems to be, at best, for a complex correction. And while my lean on August 18 went against the grain at the time, it may not seem so outlandish now, and I continue to suspect we're in the very early stages of a massive third wave decline, to break the 2022 lows and beyond. Trade safe."
"I want to lean toward the bear options, because the world is going to hell in a handbasket and we all know it, but the deck chairs on the Titanic can always be rearranged before it sinks."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Yesterday, SPX confirmed the rare WXY pattern. Experts warned that such patterns would become more common due to climate change, and this pattern JUST HAPPENED (it's clearly become common; aka: recency bias), thereby proving that:
Climate change is real and therefore every statement we make about it is also true.
Anything real is also automatically a "crisis" as long as we repeat the term "crisis" over and over while simultaneously silencing all contrary views.
You have too much freedom.
Actually, ALL Americans have too much freedom. We need to figure out a way to gain control over them since the democratic process is not to be trusted.
Maybe we can convince them to let us take away their cars?
And their stoves and heat.
And their food.
And drive their cost of living through the roof. By fiat if we can't sell them on it.
That would learn 'em.
Err... we mean, totalitarianism would be better for us.
Wait! We mean that stuff will help solve the "crisis" we just proved exists! Refer back to #1.
(The above rant, in part, illustrates how bad logic and propaganda work: Just because WXY was proven true, it does not automatically follow that every -- or any! -- statement we link to WXY is also true.)
SPX found support at the blue trend line:"
"COMPQ broke below red, but also held its blue trend line (so far):"
"Finally, we probably shouldn't entirely ignore the fact that there is a bull option here:"
"I want to lean toward the bear options, because the world is going to hell in a handbasket and we all know it, but the deck chairs on the Titanic can always be rearranged before it sinks. Trade safe."
"....so far, there's nothing that's happened to give bulls much hope, so while bears still have some work to do, they do still appear to have the edge at present."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update opined that SPX had formed a WXY complex corrective wave (a WXY is two 3-wave structures, such as two abcs, connected by another 3-wave structure called an X wave) -- personally, I hate WXYs, because the options for such a structure can be endless and thus "WXY" becomes a call that's dependent on your prior reads and bias -- but it appears that's exactly what it was."
"COMPQ is on the edge of a breakdown, so we'll see if bulls can muster any kind of bounce here or not:"
"In conclusion, so far, there's nothing that's happened to give bulls much hope, so while bears still have some work to do, they do still appear to have the edge at present. Trade safe."
