Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

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Once Agin, As Before, Punch Your AVXL Numbers

CMA or full approval, there are approximately 7 million Alzheimer’s patients that will be demanding Blarcasimine.

Like many others, because I hold a moderate AVXL position, anticipating eventual good returns on my accumulated AVXL holding, I read all of the postings on this investor message board, always hoping to find helpful and predictive information.

For weeks, most of the postings have been a) traders trying to tell how their forms of technical analysis can allow them to make dollars in short-term day trading, or b) presumed experts in the arcane and enigmatic regulations and expectations of both the European Medicines Agency or the U.S, Food and Drug Administration telling what’s required for Anavex Life Sciences Corp to actually get blarcamesine approved for sale and therapeutic usage.

In either case, nothing really useful or predictive. Like most readers with an AVXL position, I’ll continue to read each day’s postings without any expectation of useful information for we buy-and-hold AVXL long-termers. I know the Anavex science. Someday, who knows when, blarcamesine will get approved, somewhere; probably first in the EU.

For fun, I periodically punch the presumed numbers in my spreadsheet to see what the outcomes of blarcamesine sales for the treatment of Alzheimer’s might be. Using this posting, I punched the numbers again. Results much like all of the previous calculations.

Run the numbers yourself. Here are the data entries.

On a spreadsheet, enter the number of patients taking blarcamesine. I used today’s posting number of seven million.

Next, punch in the patient’s (or health insurance company’s) daily cost for the drug. Then, multiply that times 365 to yield Anavex’s annual per-patient income.

Calculate Anavex’s annual revenues. Multiply the number of patients x the per-patient income. (Will be in the billions of dollars.)

I’m conservative, so I presume that by the time Anavex gets approval to sell blarcamesine there will be one-hundred million shares of AVXL. Enter your number of AVXLs in trade.

Next is the main number I want: Anavex’s annual per-share income. Divide the company’s annual revs by the 100,000,000 share count.

Then, guess how much of this will get dropped down and go out as per-share dividends. Multiply the per-share income revenue datum times the guestimated percentage that will go out as dividends.

Finally, find your total dividend amount. Multiply the number of AVXLs you own by the dividend amount.

Agin, I was really excited by what my spreadsheet predicted. My several thousands of AVXLs, in time, are going to give me and my family wonderful annual returns.