Boi,
I like your analysis, but I have a couple of disagreements.
1. While the 50/50 partnership split might be feasible in EU, it is likely to be closer to 35-40% for Avxl in the US.
2. I think that $20k a year per patient in Europe will be be far too high, I’m thinking closer to $12k. This allows broader penetration with government coverage. In the US I can see a higher price in the $18-$20k range, as well as parts of Asia & Middle East.
3. While Anavex may be worth $60B in 3-5 yrs, that is going to be a high number for someone to acquire, can they recoup that investment before the patents expire or other competitive products are approved? AvXl may just stay independent at that point.
All of this doesn’t take into consideration 3-71 potential, which is still too early to include in any calculation.
I don’t think we ever get to those lofty MC’s estimates, I believe the company will be acquired in the $15B to $20B range in 2027. That has always been Missling’s goal, never to be a stand alone company once marketed products were a realization.
Karuna was bought for around $14B ($1.5B of that was debt) so $20B sounds reasonable to me for Blarcamesine. Nobody is buying us for $60B+, that is just pie in the sky hope. BP doesn’t typically spend that kind of money on acquisitions UNLESS it is a mega merger, just too much risk for them.
$20B buyout with 95M shares is about $210.
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