Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[dewophile]

Placebo 5.0% Drug 1.7% (delta = 3.3%, ~66% RRR).

80% power: ~931 total patients

90% power: ~1,245 total patients

the adjudicated hospitalization rate for the tx arm was just UNDER 1%. GILD enrolled 150 HR patients (including 60-74 yo) jsut in the US in one season. I would assume a large pharma can probably do 3x that even if you restrict it to 70 and up plus HR patients globally, so it would take 3 seasons. The commercial opportunity would invariably be larger than just over 70s there will be a ton of off label use in younger patients just like you have with paxlovid.
Hopefully someone will bite - when you hit on this kind of an endpoint adoption is pretty robust