If someone that trusted you, asked you if they should get into FNMA commons at this price, or if you were thinking of making a position here: My thought would be the risk reward is still in favor of gains vs. loss. I believe that there is a $5 dollar risk on the downside vs. a $30 gain on the upside in the next 3 months. I believe that there is more than 70% chance of upside and a 30% on the downside. This would all depend on how commons are treated for the IPO (SPO) in the DEAL. The DEAL, in my opinion, it is almost a foregone conclusion to happen this calendar year. However, I do stand by my earlier strategy of selling half if it goes to $11.50. If it does, there will certainly be opportunity to rebuy lower. Unknowns associated with the downside and the upside are strongly based with the fact that this trades on the OTC markets. If uplisted, upside percentage increases exponentially.
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