If the current market cap reflects a deeply risk-adjusted value of -l, I think direct is valued at 0 in the current price. One could argue that the market is super skeptical about -L getting MAA approval. That is very likely to be true, but it doesn't prove to me that the market will instantly start giving fair value to -L immediately if and when it gets approved. I'm pretty sure this is not going to work that way. It's not going to go from unfair to fair overnight. Uncertainty about Eden will be a factor until we get more clarity on that. The rate of market penetration of -L and what the endpoint penetration could be are questioned. The addition of further RA geographies is legitimately questioned - this is totally NW's fault because they had even mentioned geographic expansion but never moved on it to date, so pretty much zero credibility. NW is given so little credibility now that I can't see that getting well turned around just on MAA approval. The actual justification for holding the shares will be so much bigger after approval than we have ever seen, but I'm sure it will remain quite undervalued because they don't have the credibility yet. If direct is shown to work well, that is a massive undervaluation that will get corrected upwards if and when direct is shown to have efficacy either through clinical trial(s) or RWD. If the value of -L is non-zero, then the Roswell IP is currently valued at $0. To get what it's all worth, longs will still have to wait; I don't have any idea how long, unless some deal comes along that offers a reasonable price that the market is not currently giving NW.
This stuff is all obvious. Longs, if they are thinking at all, must think that all shorts are just going to turn around and run for the hills if MAA is announced to have been approved without any major reservations. I'm skeptical of that scenario playing out. Very skeptical, actually. Like you, I have been holding way too long; unlike you, I'm not at all patient about that, but no choice imo, longs will have to continue to be patient before they will see the kind of major appreciation they expect. Initially, I'm very conservative in my expectations - all our experience screams that to be so! Instead of living in the real world, these guys want to scream at anybody who expresses realistic opinions. OK, they can believe whatever they want.
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