AI Overview
While assessing the accuracy of any economist's projections is complex and subject to differing interpretations and outcomes, here's a look at Steve Hanke's forecasting accuracy based on the provided search results:
Inflation Predictions:
Hanke successfully predicted the US inflation spike and its peak around 9%.
His model, running between 6% and 9% for 2022, was reportedly accurate given the actual CPI increase of 8.5% in July of that year.
He and his colleague forecasted CPI ending 2023 between 2% and 5% which also proved accurate with the December reading of 3.4%.
According to Johns Hopkins University, he made inflation forecasts for 2022 for several countries which included 5%-6% for the USA.
Recession Predictions:
Hanke has frequently warned of a looming recession, particularly in 2023, based on factors like contracting money supply (M2) and "regime uncertainty".
While a recession didn't materialize in 2023, he attributes the delay to the longer lag between money supply changes and economic impact, stating it's been pushed back by about a year.
He now forecasts a high probability of a recession by late 2024 or early 2025, pointing again to the M2 contraction as a key indicator historically preceding downturns.
Criticism and Nuances:
Some critiques question the broadness of his predictions, such as predicting a recession within "6 to 18 months," finding it potentially too wide to be meaningfully accurate.
One review of his inflation dashboard suggests his methodology deviates from standard scientific practice by assuming PPP is valid rather than testing it, leading to conclusions of official inflation figures being inaccurate.
In summary, Steve Hanke's forecasts have achieved some notable successes, particularly in predicting inflation peaks and ranges, based on his monetarist approach. However, his timing on recession predictions has been off in the past, leading to some debate and discussion about the precision and applicability of his models and interpretations of economic data
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