Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

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Regardless of whether you are short or long, the fact that blarcamesine is at day 150 means that the chances of approval are greater than 90%.

If WS felt there was a 90% chance of approval, why would this stock not be valued at 10B or more at this time rather than sub 1B?

Everyone has their own method. My quick and dirty calculation for valuation is 5 x peak sales discounted by years to peak sales --- so lets say 10B x 5 discounted out to 2032 would be 25B - cut in half for a partner = 12.5B x 90% chance of approval +/- 11B and fair valuation share price should be closing in on $120/share. WS is instead predicting a 5% chance. With a 5% chance we are talking valuation of 750MM (12.5Bx0.05) for this asset (throw in 150 million for 371 and 1/2 cash on hand for valuation right around10/share - of course non-273 could be higher or lower after P2 TLD). Is WS stupid/uninformed or do they think likelihood of approval within next 1/2 year is not worth investing in this ticker. Wall Street analysts talk to KOLs not owned by the company so they may be getting different opinions than this board.